基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数的新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹驱动因素研究

水资源紧缺是限制我国西北干旱区农业发展的主要瓶颈,正确评估地区农业用水效率及其影响机制,可为提高农业用水效率提供理论依据。以新疆为研究区,基于1988-2015年的长系列数据,分别计算出历年北疆、南疆、东疆典型作物（小麦、棉花）生产水足迹,并采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数定量分析气象因素（年降雨量、年日照时数、年均温度、年均风速、年均湿度）和技术因素（农机总动力、有效灌溉率、化肥施用折纯量）对作物生产水足迹的影响贡献率。结果表明： 1988年至2015年,东疆小麦、棉花生产水足迹显著高于北疆和南疆,在气候变化和技术进步的综合影响下,各地区典型作物生产水足迹逐年降低,其中技术进步对新疆典型作物单产水足迹影响显著高于气候因素,是驱动新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹变化的主要控制因素。地区尺度上,北疆、南疆、东疆气候变化和农业技术发展均呈现显著的地区差异,总体来看,北疆气候条件最适宜作物生长,东疆气候最为恶劣,北疆、南疆农业技术发展速率整体上高于东疆。     

中亚干旱区陆地水资源对气候变化的响应

气候变化对中亚干旱区高山融雪、蒸散发以及径流等水循环过程产生影响,从而引起区域水资源在空间和时间上的重新分配。在归纳总结降水、土壤水、地表水、陆地水储量等不同水体类型在气候变化下改变情况的基础上,综述了中亚干旱区陆地水资源变化对气候变化响应的现状及进展。由于使用的数据和评估方法不同,水资源变化研究结果具有一致性及不确定性。基于上述总结,对中亚干旱区水资源对气候变化响应方面的展望及挑战进行了讨论。     

区域尺度生态系统水分利用效率的时空变异特征研究进展

水分利用效率(WUE)是深入理解生态系统水—碳循环耦合关系的重要指标,揭示区域尺度生态系统WUE的时空变异特征及其控制机制,有助于评价和预测全球变化对生态系统水、碳过程的影响。综述了目前区域尺度生态系统WUE的研究进展,结果表明:①目前关于生态系统WUE影响因素的研究多基于站点尺度,区域尺度的研究相对缺乏;②关于不同生态系统WUE的大小及时间变化特征已有较明确的结论,而基于生态模型方法获取的生态系统WUE的空间分布格局尚需进一步验证;③已有研究表明气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)均会显著改变生态系统生产力或蒸散,然而,较少研究关注两者导致的生态系统WUE的改变。因此,区域尺度生态系统WUE时空变异的控制因子及其对气候变化和LUCC的响应可能是未来全球变化研究的热点问题之一。     

Future changes in rainfall,temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET₀ is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET₀ have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET₀ and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET₀. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081–2091 and 2091–2099 in maximum temperature and 2091–2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET₀ in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET₀ in the April–May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.     

长江源区高寒退化湿地地表蒸散特征研究

青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”,对东亚乃至全球大气水分循环都有非常显著的影响.高寒退化湿地是高原上生态多样性的保证,也是水汽循环和地表径流的重要源地,其地气之间水分交换不但可以反映气候变化,而且也对生态环境保护具有重要意义.以长江源区隆宝滩湿地连续一年、每10分钟一次的观测资料为基础,利用FAO Penman-Monteith方法分析了长江源区高寒退化湿地蒸散量的变化特征及其与环境因子之间的关系.结果表明：1）牧草生长期,潜在蒸散量日、月变化特征显著;实际蒸散量整体表现为冬小、夏大,夏季蒸散贡献最大.2）观测期间,蒸散量远大于降水量,水分亏损严重,局地蒸散对降水的贡献较高.3）土壤温度对蒸散发过程影响显著,尤其是表层5 cm地温与蒸散发相关性较好,土壤湿度变化表明其为蒸散发过程提供了充足的水分.4）全年变化中,气温是影响蒸散的主要因素.晴天中,高寒退化湿地实际蒸散量与辐射具有几乎相同的变化趋势,气温对蒸散量影响较小,蒸散量与相对湿度呈现显著的反相关.     

Climate and water budget change of a Mediterranean coastal watershed, Ravenna, Italy

It is generally difficult to quantify exactly the freshwater going in or out of the coastal watersheds along the northern Adriatic Sea because, on one hand, excess water is drained and pumped into the sea to prevent flooding but, on the other hand, water is brought onto the land from far away for irrigation. Fragmentation of water authorities makes it difficult to collect all the necessary information. Climate change and increasing salinization of the coastal aquifers make it imperative, however, to better know the quantities of freshwater involved in these small basins. The water budget of a small coastal agricultural watershed along the Adriatic Sea in Italy (The Quinto Basin near Ravenna) is presented here considering different land uses. The evaporation of open water and the evapotranspiration of wetlands, pine forests, bare soil and irrigated agriculture are calculated based on the Penman–Monteith equation and the Cropwat program. The current water budget is based on average climate data from 1989 to 2008 and drainage and irrigation data. Predictions for future evapotranspiration, net irrigation and hydrologic deficit are calculated with climate data from IPCC (The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 200, Climate change 2007). From the study results, the soil type may determine whether or not a crop will need more or less irrigation in the future. Regulations on land use should therefore consider which crop type can be grown on a specific soil type. Water budget analysis in scenarios A1b and A2 both show an increase of water deficits in the summer and an increase of water surplus in the winter. This is explained by the fact that a larger percentage of the rain will fall in winter and not during the growth season. The open water evaporation will decrease under future climate scenarios as a result of increased relative humidity in winter and decreased wind velocity. This may have a positive effect on the water cycle. The current irrigation is very abundant, but has beneficial effects in contrasting soil salinization and saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer.     

Integrated Water Systems Model for Terrestrial Water Cycle Simulation

The terrestrial water cycle is influenced by a wide range of climatic variables and human disturbances. In the era of the Anthropocene, when humans drive the changes in atmospheric and hydrological processes in river basins, there is an urgent need to include human impacts in the study of the terrestrial water cycle. This paper focused on the large-scale hydrological modeling which takes account of human impacts, reviewed the research progress of the natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle and the development of comprehensive terrestrial hydrological models in recent years, and proposed that an integrated water system model with human-related processes such as crop water demand model, engineering regulation and social water demand, be the key to large-scale water cycle simulations under changing environment. Based on the existing large-scale land surface hydrological model, there is a need to put forward the integration of the human-related processes. A comprehensive integrated water system model that considers multi-processes can help us to understand the key mechanisms of how climate change and human activity influence the regional water cycle. It also provides a theoretical and practical basis for investigating the causes and effects of changes in terrestrial water cycle under a changing environment, and thus offers scientific support for climate change adaptation in the water sector.     

陆地水循环过程的综合集成与模拟

在气候变化与人类活动的影响下,陆地水循环过程发生了明显改变,并导致了一系列资源环境问题。深入认识陆地水循环过程的变化机理,发展陆地水循环过程综合集成模拟技术,预估未来陆地水循环的变化趋势,是当前水循环研究面临的重要任务。主要关注人类活动影响下的大尺度(大河流域或大陆尺度)陆地表层系统水循环模拟,梳理了近年来陆地水循环过程综合集成与模拟相关的研究进展,指出当前大尺度陆地表层系统水循环模拟模型的主要问题是对自然过程与人类活动过程间相互作用描述不足,以及人类活动参数化方案的不完善。因此,完善人类活动参数化方案,构建陆地水循环过程的综合集成模型,是模拟研究的重要发展方向之一。同时,考虑多要素过程的综合集成模型有助于解释气候变化与人类用水活动影响水循环变化的关键机制,为探索变化环境下陆地水循环变化成因及其效应提供理论与实践基础,其结果将为区域水资源配置及应对全球变化的战略决策提供科学依据。     

气候变化下长江中下游水稻灌溉需水量时空变化特征

选择长江中下游单季中稻为研究对象,结合45个气象站1961~2010年逐日气象资料,基于统计降尺度模型(SDSM),生成HadCM3气候模式A2和B2两种情景下各站点参考作物腾发量和降水数据。基于联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的作物系数法,并考虑有效性降雨和不同地区深层渗漏量,分析历史和未来的水稻灌溉需水时空变化特征。结果表明:过去50年,除了太湖流域以外的长江中下游大部分区域的参考作物腾发量和水稻需水量都呈显著下降趋势,而显著下降的水稻灌溉需水量主要位于鄱阳湖流域;未来两种情景下,参考作物腾发量、水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量均值都呈下降趋势,但水稻灌溉需水量降幅最小;水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量在长江中下游地区的变化趋势具有明显的空间异质性,水稻需水量大幅减少的区域由太湖流域向汉江和洞庭湖流域扩展。未来水稻灌溉需水量减少的区域主要分布在太湖流域、汉江流域东部和洞庭湖流域北部,并随时间推移呈扩大趋势。     

我国北方地区农业生态系统水分运行及区域分异规律研究的内涵和研究进展

概述了国家自然科学基金重大项目"我国北方地区农业生态系统水分运行及区域分异规律研究"的内涵及初步研究进展,提出要通过对我国北方地区农业生态中水分运行和转换规律的综合田间试验及联网研究,确立北方地区农业生态系统水平衡、水循环过程的机制,确立北方地区有限水环境下作物生产力模型,对北方地区农业生态系统中水分运行与农业可持续发展及其区域分异规律作出评估,研究给出了我国北方地区主要作物的耗水、需水规律,夏玉米的水肥优化耦合模式和农田生态系统综合模型;获得了近40年来我国北方蒸发潜力自东向西逐渐递增的空间变化和自90年代以来北方部分地区潜在蒸发有明显下降趋势的时间变化特征;得出了黄土高原旱作高产农田土壤干燥化是高产田产量产生波动性的主要原因,比较了森林和草地的水文效应差异,指出在郁闭度相同的情况下,森林小流域较自然牧草小流域有较小的径流量、较大的蒸散量和较低的3 m土层平均含水量。     

全球气候增暖对甘肃农作物生长影响的研究进展

系统总结了甘肃省科技攻关重大项目“甘肃干旱生态环境对全球气候变暖的响应研究”等3个课题的主要成果和研究进展。在揭示甘肃省现代气候变化基本特征是冬暖夏干的基础上,比较系统地综述了越冬作物（冬小麦、冬油菜）、喜凉作物（春小麦、马铃薯、胡麻）和喜温作物（玉米、棉花、酿酒葡萄）等8种主要农作物的生长发育、适生种植区高度和种植面积、产量和品质等对现代气候变化的响应特征。现代气候变化对甘肃农作物生长的影响非常突出,已对农作物安全生产与农业可持续发展构成了严重威胁。其研究结果为建立现代农业发展模式,旱作农业生产机制,农作物安全生产提供科学的指导意见。     

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow,water quality and suspended sediment in the Kor River Basin,Southwest of Iran

This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios.     

我国气候变化对地下水资源影响研究的主要进展

为了推动我国关于气候变化对地下水影响的深入研究,列举了关于气候变化对地下水影响的研究方法,包括包气带和含水层环境示踪技术,研究地下水及其沉积物的物理化学指标,地表水-地下水耦合数值模拟技术等;综述了我国华北地区(北京市、滹沱河流域、海河流域、滦河下游地区、黄淮海平原、临汾盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地、黄河下游地区、大同盆地、北方岩溶泉域)、西北地区(塔里木下游地区、三工河流域、阿克苏河绿洲、黑河流域、石羊河流域、河西走廊、巴丹吉林沙漠)和东北地区(吉林中部平原地区、三江平原)等典型区域气候变化(气温、降水、蒸发)对地下水水位、补给量与排泄量(泉流量、开采量)、水化学成分、水温、同位素组成的影响;提出了气候变化条件下合理利用和管理地下水资源的若干对策,包括减缓温室效应引起的全球气候变暖对未来地下水资源产生不利影响,定量化研究气候变化和地下水之间的相互关系,应用高新技术开展地下水资源脆弱性的研究,充分利用灌区地下含水层的调蓄作用,通过地表水与地下水的联合利用控制水盐平衡、涵养地下水源,节约农业、工业和生活用水等。     

基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析

以湄公河流域为研究区,采用区域气候模式RegCM3为模拟工具,以根系层土壤含水量为代表性指标,对A1B情景下未来研究区月尺度农业干旱进行了预估。基于地表能量平衡原理,系统分析了降水、蒸发、地表温度和根系层土壤含水量等农业干旱主要影响因素与区域气候模式模拟的大气环流、地表感热通量、地表潜热通量、地表净通量之间的联系和变化规律,从气陆间能量和水汽通量平衡角度,对农业干旱发生机理进行了识别。预估结果表明:从年内各月地表净通量和地表温度变化来看,未来春末(6月)和秋末(10月)湄公河流域温度增加明显,且土壤含水量减少也较为明显;同时,这两个时段蒸发旺盛和降水减少的趋势,有可能导致流域局部地区(尤其是非灌溉农业区)农业干旱的发生。     

基于能量平衡原理的潜在蒸散发模型构建

为深入探索气候变化背景下更为精确的潜在蒸散发计算方法, 在淮北平原五道沟水文水资源实验站开展了3组小型蒸渗仪试验, 通过结合平流运动动力项并引入地表净辐射修正参数, 基于能量平衡原理提出一种新的潜在蒸散发模型。结果表明: ① 3组蒸渗仪实测数据中, 2组不同加水方式下的草地覆被蒸散发相关性较好(R=0.95);②新的潜在蒸散发模型在有草地覆被的2组试验中模拟结果的纳什效率系数(E_NS=0.85)和均方根误差(E_RMS=0.83)均优于现有Penman系列等经验方法; ③模型更适用于有草地覆被条件下的蒸散发估算, 在淮北平原地区具有较强的适用性与优势。该模型能够提高区域潜在蒸散发模拟精度, 为流域水循环过程模拟及水资源利用提供科学参考。     

典型岩溶区潜在蒸散发变化及其影响因素

蒸散发过程是联系大气过程和陆面水文过程的关键环节,对区域/流域水循环过程和水量平衡具有重要影响。岩溶区,地表生态环境脆弱,对气候变化响应敏感,蒸散发可能是联系大气、水、热交换和碳循环的关键生态水文过程。准确地估算蒸散发对于深入研究岩溶水循环响应气候变化、碳循环、生态修复等具有重要作用。本文选择典型岩溶区桂林市为研究对象,基于1951~2015年桂林市气象站逐日气象数据,采用Penman- Monterith方法计算了潜在蒸散发量,利用Mann- Kendall非参数检验法和相关性分析研究桂林市潜在蒸散发的变化趋势及其影响因素。研究结果表明,桂林市潜在蒸散发具有明显的年、年际和季节尺度变化特征。1951~2015年桂林市潜在蒸散发呈显著的减小趋势,变化速率为-8. 02 mm/10a;夏季、秋季和冬季潜在蒸散发呈下降趋势,而春季呈微弱的上升趋势;夏季潜在蒸散发的显著减小是影响年蒸散发下降的主要原因;桂林市潜在蒸散发在1967和2003年左右发生突变;通过Mann- Kendall趋势检验和相关性分析得出,桂林市平均气温、最高、最低气温呈显著的上升趋势,而风速、相对湿度、日照时数呈显著的下降趋势;日照时数是影响桂林市潜在蒸散发变化的主要因素,其次是风速。     

黑河流域节水生态农业与流域水资源集成管理研究领域

概述了中国内陆河流域面临的水问题和日益激化的用水矛盾,强调了内陆河地区支柱产业——绿洲农业应该坚持节水和生态的方向,流域集成管理是持续农业的基础。长期从事该方面研究的黑河流域是个较好借鉴,同时也提供了深入开展相关研究的基础,为此提出了以黑河流域为背景的四大研究流域：水文、生物、经济系统水循环与水资源形成演变,节水农业的生物学研究与抗旱品种繁育,农业节水新材料研发与工程节水技术集成,水资源合理配置与流域集成管理;并简述了各领域的主要方向。     

Estimations of climate change impacts on crop production in the Republic of Moldova

Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate, key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics. Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response, possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat, whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively. As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase in corn yields. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

1975-2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应

为探讨渭河上游径流的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应,选取1975-2011年河流实测径流量进行计算和分析. 结果表明：近40 a来,渭河上游径流总体呈明显下降趋势,其中,20世纪90年代前处于丰水期,90年代后进入枯水期,进入21世纪有明显增多趋势. 径流年际丰枯变化激烈,枯水年的发生概率高、持续性强,最长的连枯年份达8 a. 径流量集中在汛期,各年代的分配峰型有所不同,在70、80年代为7、9月双峰,之后变为单峰型分布. 流域内气候增暖明显,降水减少,蒸发加剧;90年代为明显的暖干型气候,21世纪初期气候向暖湿型转变的过程对径流的增加十分有利. 径流对气候变化有较强响应,但响应程度随时间变化而变化. 通过定量分析气候因子对径流变化的贡献值,发现由于气候增暖导致潜在蒸散量的加剧对径流变化的负贡献达60%以上,绝对值高于降水量的正贡献.     

湿润气候区非均匀地表平均蒸散发率参数化方案研究

从水文过程的物理机制出发,提出湿润气候区平均蒸散发率的一种统计-动力参数化方案.将陆面蒸散发过程的复杂机制分解为地表层裸土及植被两种下垫面的土壤水分饱和区与非饱和区影响下的通量贡献.从理论上推导出考虑土壤含水量次网格尺度非均匀性的区域蒸散率解析表达式.根据湿润气候区土壤水分空间分布PDF的特点,给出适用于湿润气候区的平均蒸散发计算式.以长江三角洲为例进行的数值试验证明其合理性与可行性.