The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500?hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973?C1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.     

Atmospheric blocking: space-time links to the NAO and PNA

In the Northern hemisphere, regions characterized by an enhanced frequency of atmospheric blocking overlap significantly with those associated with the major extra-tropical patterns of large-scale climate variability—namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. There is likewise an overlap in the temporal band-width of blocks and these climate patterns. Here the nature of the linkage between blocks and the climate patterns is explored by using the ERA-40 re-analysis data set to examine (1) their temporal and spatial correlation and (2) the interrelationship between blocks and the NAO/PNA. It is shown that a strong anti-correlation exists between blocking occurrence and the phase of the NAO (PNA) in the North Atlantic (western North Pacific), and that there are distinctive inter-basin differences with a clear geographical (over North Atlantic) and quantitative (over North Pacific) separation of typical blocking genesis/lysis regions during the opposing phases of the climate patterns. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis points to a significant influence of blocking upon the NAO pattern (identifiable as the leading EOF in the Euro-Atlantic), and a temporal analysis indicates that long-lasting blocks are associated with the development of negative NAO/PNA index values throughout their life-time. In addition an indication of a cause-and effect relationship is set-out for the North Atlantic linkage.     

Winter AO/NAO modifies summer ocean heat content and monsoonal circulation over the western Indian Ocean

This paper analyzes the possible influence of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO) on the Indian Ocean upper ocean heat content in summer as well as the summer monsoonal circulation. The strong interannual co-variation between winter 1000-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and summer ocean heat content in the uppermost 120 m over the tropical Indian Ocean was investigated by a singular decomposition analysis for the period 1979–2014. The second paired-modes explain 23.8% of the squared covariance, and reveal an AO/NAO pattern over the North Atlantic and a warming upper ocean in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The positive upper ocean heat content enhances evaporation and convection, and results in an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motion over 5°S–5°N and descending over 15°–25°N. Correspondingly, in the lower troposphere, significantly anomalous northerly winds appear over the western Indian Ocean north of the equator, implying a weaker summer monsoon circulation. The off-equator oceanic Rossby wave plays a key role in linking the AO/NAO and the summer heat content anomalies. In boreal winter, a positive AO/NAO triggers a down-welling Rossby wave in the central tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric teleconnection. As the Rossby wave arrives in the western Indian Ocean in summer, it results in anomalous upper ocean heating near the equator mainly through the meridional advection. The AO/NAO-forced Rossby wave and the resultant upper ocean warming are well reproduced by an ocean circulation model. The winter AO/NAO could be a potential season-lead driver of the summer atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Indian Ocean.     

北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响

利用1961~2003年NCEP/NCAR再分析和新疆75个气象站月降水资料,分析新疆夏季降水与沿西亚副热带西风急流Rossby波和北大西洋涛动（NAO）的关系,研究表明,夏季斯堪的纳维亚半岛-中欧—西亚和中亚的准静止波传播是联系NAO与沿西亚副热带西风急流波活动和新疆夏季降水变化的纽带。通过波作用量的动力学诊断分析,讨论了夏季NAO正、负位相异常年准静止波传播特征和差异,夏季NAO强弱活动影响斯堪的纳维亚半岛EP通量散度强度和位置异常,该区EP通量散度强度和位置异常导致强辐散中心在中高纬向东传播的准静止波和沿副热带西风急流准静止波活动变化,从而影响新疆夏季降水。     

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979–2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe prop-agate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply reversed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pat- tern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern significantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to cause positive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is different from the earlier research findings based on monthly mean data.     

Relationship between the Late Spring NAO and Summer Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.     

斯堪的纳维亚遥相关对我国西南西部深秋降水的影响

使用中国台站降水数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了1961~2012年深秋斯堪的纳维亚遥相类型(SCA)与同期我国西南西部降水的关系,以及SCA型环流异常影响西南西部降水的具体物理过程。结果表明:SCA型遥相关与西南西部降水存在显著的负相关关系,且具有非对称性:SCA正位相时西南西部降水偏少,而SCA负位相与西南西部降水的关系不显著。SCA正位相年西南西部的降水偏少与该地区对流层中下层的异常下沉运动有关。垂直运动方程诊断结果表明该异常下沉运动主要是由冷平流异常维持。气候态风场对温度异常场的平流在西南西部的冷平流异常中起主要作用。SCA正位相时,西南西部地区的东侧有暖异常,而其西侧的印度半岛北部及伊朗高原地区为冷异常,在平均西风作用下,西南西部有冷平流异常,造成该地区的异常下沉运动,从而降水偏少。     

Mean Flow–Storm Track Relationship and Rossby Wave Breaking in Two Types of El-Nino简

The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.     

Relationship between the frequency of tropical cyclones in Taiwan and the Pacific/North American pattern

The frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in Taiwan during June to October (JJASO) is found to have a strong negative correlation with the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern in the preceding April. In the negative PNA phase, the anomalous cyclonic and the anomalous anticyclonic circulations are intensified at low latitudes and midlatitudes from East Asia to the North Atlantic, respectively, from April to JJASO. Particularly in East Asia, the anomalous southeasterly that converges between the anomalous anticyclone to the east of Japan and the anomalous cyclone to the east of Taiwan plays a decisive role in moving TCs not only to Taiwan, but also to the midlatitude coastal regions of East Asia as a result of the steering flow. In addition, a southwestward extension of a western North Pacific (WNP) high during the positive PNA phase also contributed to a frequent movement of TCs to southern China without traveling north toward the midlatitude regions of East Asia. Due to the difference in the typical tracks of the TC in the WNP according to the PNA phase, the intensity of the TC in the negative PNA phase is stronger than that in the positive PNA phase.     

冬季北大西洋涛动对热带印度洋海表热通量的影响

利用1979—2017年TropFlux海气热通量资料、ERA5再分析资料及HadISST资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动（North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO）与同期热带印度洋海气热通量的关系。结果表明,NAO指数与热带印度洋海气净热通量整体上呈负相关,意味着NAO为正位相时,海洋向大气输送热量,其显著区域主要位于热带西印度洋（50°～70°E,10°S～10°N）。净热通量的变化主要依赖于潜热通量和短波辐射的变化;潜热通量和短波辐射在NAO正（负）位相事件期间的贡献率分别为72.96％和61.48％（71.72％和57.06％）。NAO可通过Rossby波列影响印度洋地区局地大气环流,进而影响海气热通量;当NAO为正位相时,波列沿中低纬路径传播至印度洋地区,在阿拉伯海北部对流层高层触发异常反气旋环流。该异常反气旋性环流加强了阿拉伯高压,使得北印度洋偏北风及越赤道气流加强。伴随风速的加强,海面蒸发增强,同时加强的越赤道气流导致热带辐合带强度偏强,深对流加强引起对流层水汽和云量增多,进而引起海表下行短波辐射减少。     

Signature of the Antarctic oscillation in the northern hemisphere

Using the ECWMF daily reanalysis data, this paper investigates signatures of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the upper troposphere of the northern hemisphere. It is found that during boreal winter, a positive (negative) phase of the AAO is associated with anomalous easterlies (westerlies) in middle-low latitudes (~30–40°N) and anomalous westerlies (easterlies) in middle-high latitudes (~45–65°N) of the upper troposphere about 25–40 days later. While there is also a response in zonal wind in the tropics, namely over the central-eastern Pacific, to some extent, these tropical zonal wind anomalies can trigger a Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns (PNA)-like quasi-stationary Rossby waves that propagate into the Northern Hemisphere and gradually evolve into patterns which resemble North Atlantic teleconnection patterns. Furthermore, these quasi-stationary Rossby waves might give rise to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence and divergence to accelerate anomalous zonal winds in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Intensity of the Trough over the Bay of Bengal and Its Impact on the Southern China Precipitation in Winter

In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation.     

热带季节内振荡与北大西洋涛动年际变化的关系

运用K均值聚类法将冬季北大西洋及欧洲地区的天气流型分为4种不同的流型。研究了不同阶段8种不同位相的热带季节内振荡（MJO）与这4种流型的年际变化的关系。通过一系列的对比试验发现,K均值聚类法划分得到的不同位相的北大西洋涛动（NAO）的天数能很好地反映NAO指数;无论是在1978～1990年（简称为P1阶段）还是在1991～2010年（简称为P2阶段）,MJO第3（6）位相影响NAO正（负）位相;但在P1阶段存在NAO的位相转换,当MJO处于第1位相时,NAO由弱的负位相转换为正位相,当MJO处于第6位相时, NAO由正位相转换为负位相;而在P2阶段NAO并没有明显的位相转换,当MJO处于第1位相时,NAO由偶极子结构转换为波列结构。     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC OSCILLATION FORCED BY EL NINO DURING NORTHERN WINTER

Using a nine-layer global spectral model, numerical schemes with two different SST distributions in January(control case and abnormal case) have been tested to study the climatic effect, propagation charateristics and the maintenance mechanism of the short-term climatic oscillation caused by El Nino during northern winter. The main results are as follows:(1) During northern winter, there exist two wave trains because of the influence of El Nino. One is similar to PNA pattern, and the other is similar to EUP pattern.(2) The PNA-like wave train caused by the anomalous SST forcing in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is due to the response of ultralong wave and long wave components of Rossby mode, and the EUP-like wave traincrossing Eurasia is mainly due to the wave component of Rossby mode.(3) During northern winter, the warm water region in central equatorial Pacific Ocean is the source of forced wave trains.(4) In northern winter,the energy source for maintaining the short-term climatic oscillation is from the interaction between eddies, and between eddy and zonal flow.     

Interannual linkage between Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation and tropical Indian Ocean precipitation during boreal winter

In the study authors analyzed the interannual relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precipitation in boreal winter for the period 1979–2009. A significant simultaneous teleconnection between them is found. After removing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole signals, the AO/NAO and the TIO precipitation (0°–10°S, 60°–80°E) yield a correlation of +0.56, which is also consistent with the AO/NAO-outgoing longwave radiation correlation of ?0.61. The atmospheric and oceanic features in association with the AO/NAO-precipitation links are investigated. During positive AO/NAO winter, the Rossby wave guided by westerlies tends to trigger persistent positive geopotential heights in upper troposphere over about 20°–30°N and 55°–70°E, which is accompanied by a stronger Middle East jet stream. Meanwhile, there are anomalous downward air motions, strengthening the air pressure in mid-lower troposphere. The enhanced Arabian High brings anomalous northern winds over the northern Indian Ocean. As a result the anomalous crossing-equator air-flow enhances the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). On the other hand, the anomalous Ekman transport convergence by the wind stress curl over the central TIO deepens the thermocline. Both the enhanced ITCZ and the anomalous upper ocean heat content favor in situ precipitation in the central TIO. The AO/NAO-TIO precipitation co-variations in the IPCC AR4 historical climate simulation (1850–1999) of Bergen Climate Model version 2 were investigated. The Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies (particularly the convective precipitation along the ITCZ), in conjunction with the corresponding surface winds and 200 hPa anticyclonic atmospheric circulation and upper ocean heat contents were well reproduced in simulation. The similarity between the observation and simulation support the physical robustness of the AO/NAO-TIO precipitation links.     

有无El Ni?o影响下热带北大西洋春季增暖的差异及可能成因

热带北大西洋(Northern Tropical Atlantic,NTA)海温异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)对美洲乃至全球的气候变率有着重要影响。利用再分析资料对NTA的暖SSTA进行诊断,分析有、无El Ni?o影响下春季增暖的差异以及可能的成因。结果表明,与El Ni?o有关的情形中关键区(5~25 °N,10~60 °W)平均春季SSTA为0.55 ℃,无El Ni?o情形是0.37 ℃;前者与冬季的显著正偏差出现在NTA,后者主要发生在NTA的东侧,且正偏差的数值较小。El Ni?o激发的热带外Rossby波活动通过加强北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)负位相,引起El Ni?o峰值后NTA海域显著的西风异常,暖Kelvin波加热NTA对流层大气,增强其容纳水汽的能力,减小海-气界面的垂直湿度梯度,两者共同作用使海表蒸发减弱,在NTA春季呈现显著暖SSTA。与El Ni?o无关的情形中,NTA SSTA的变化主要受热带海-气反馈过程的调制,其与热带外NAO的季节内振荡有关,NAO的季节平均负位相较弱,异常西风值较小,同时海-气垂直湿度梯度异常增大,使春季NTA的增暖较弱。      

东亚冬季风对秋、冬季SSTA响应的数值试验

利用NCAR CCM2模式，通过设计多组数值试验方案，研究了东亚冬季风对赤道中东太平洋、中纬度太平洋秋、冬季SSTA的响应。模拟结果表明，东亚冬季风对秋、冬季太平洋SSTA均存在一定的响应，但冬季风对SSTA的响应存在显著的季节和海域差异，并表现出不同的异常响应形态。东亚冬季风对秋季SSTA的显著响应区域位于中纬度太平洋地区，该区域的SST的持续异常，可以引起欧亚、北美地区冬季大气环流的异常，并伴随有明显的EU型和PNA型波列特征，秋季中纬度太平洋SST持续异常偏冷（暖），能够引起有利于强（弱）东亚冬季风的环流异常。而冬季风对冬季SSTA的响应则为赤道中东太平洋和中纬度太平洋SSTA共同作用的结果，在两个区域SSTA的同时强迫下，大气环流表现出类似PNA及WP型波列分布的异常响应特征，赤道中东太平洋的正（负）的SSTA及中纬度太平洋负（正）的SSTA，将导致弱（强）冬季风的发生。     

The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal–interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century.     

Influence of springtime North Atlantic Oscillation on crops yields in Northeast China

Forecasting grain production is of strategic importance in considerations of climate change and growing population. Here we show that the springtime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is significantly correlated to the year-to-year increment of maize and rice yield in Northeast China (NEC). The physical mechanism for this relationship was investigated. Springtime NAO can induce sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Atlantic, which display a tripole pattern and are similar to the empirical mode pattern in spring. The spring Atlantic SSTA pattern that could persists to summer, can trigger a high-level tropospheric Rossby wave response in the Eurasia continent, resulting in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Siberia-Mongolia region, which is unfavorable (favorable) for cold surges that affect NEC. Weaker (stronger) cold surges can accordingly reduce (increase) cloud amount, resulting in an increase (a decrease) in daily maximum temperature and a decrease (an increase) in daily minimum temperature, thereby leading to an increase (a decrease) in diurnal temperature range. And summer-mean daily minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range are most significantly related to the NEC crop yields.     

IPO调节大西洋纬向模对澳大利亚秋季降水年际变动的影响

采用1900-2014年115 a的观测和再分析资料,使用滤波、线性相关等方法,研究太平洋年代际振荡(Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,IPO)调节大西洋纬向模(Atlantic Zonal Mode,AZM)对澳大利亚秋季降水年际变动的调节作用及机制.结果 表明,当IPO位于正位相时,...