快速城市化地区多尺度水文观测试验与暴雨洪水响应机理分析

城市下垫面改变引起水文循环过程发生变异, 导致目前已掌握的天然情况下的产汇流规律和机制难以解释城市化等新形势下的水文现象与过程, 而面临需重新再认识的挑战。本文以长三角地区为典型, 建立了不同城市化水平及空间规模的水文试验流域, 探讨了快速城市化地区暴雨洪水响应规律和机制。结果表明: ①不同量级降水事件下城镇用地土壤水响应程度(表层土壤水涨幅基本超过4%)总体高于其他土地利用类型, 城市化地区下垫面的改变通过影响土壤水动态响应模式直接影响了地表产流过程, 植被覆盖率较低的城镇用地和荒地土壤含水率呈现出陡涨陡落现象, 而植被作用下的土地利用类型则表现出缓慢上升和缓慢消退的土壤水响应过程。②流域洪峰滞时和洪峰流量整体表现为随流域面积增加而呈幂律函数关系形式的增加。③总降水量与主要洪水特征(如洪峰流量、单位面积洪峰流量和径流深)基本呈显著相关(相关系数分别达0.49、0.41和0.78以上)。城市下垫面通过改变土壤水动态响应等产汇流特征而直接影响了洪水过程, 未来长三角地区暴雨洪水在城市化和气候因素双重作用下呈现持续加剧的趋势。     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

Quantitatively analyze the impact of land use/land cover change on annual runoff decrease

Annual runoff in Luanhe river basin was detected a downward trend and caused water crisis in Tianjin, China. To quantify the decreased runoff volume, Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt test were employed to check whether there existed significant trend and change points for annual rainfall and runoff time series in Panjiakou reservoir basin and 8 sub-watersheds. It was found that the annual runoff time series had a significant downward trend at 5 % confidence level, and the change point was at 1979 in Panjiakou reservoir watershed. Then double mass curve of annual rainfall and annual runoff was plotted, and two lines were fitted before and after 1979, respectively. Based on this method, the comprehensive effects of land use/land cover change on annual runoff were estimated. To further quantify the contributions of each main factor to annual runoff decrease, water stored in check dams and social water use in different periods were surveyed first. And then multi-linear regression was used to develop the relations between annual runoff and the driven factors. Water area decrease was identified to be the main factor contributing to annual runoff reduction. The results in this study can provide valuable information for water resources planners and policy makers.     

Hydrologic behavior and flood probability for selected arid basins in Makkah area, western Saudi Arabia

In arid regions, flash floods often occur as a consequence of excessive rainfall. Occasionally causing major loss of property and life, floods are large events of relatively short duration. Makkah area in western Saudi Arabia is characterized by high rainfall intensity that leads to flash floods. This study quantifies the hydrological characteristics and flood probability of some major wadis in western Saudi Arabia, including Na’man, Fatimah, and Usfan. Flood responses in these wadis vary due to the nature and rainfall distribution within these wadis. Rainfall frequency analysis was performed using selected annual maximums of 24-h rainfall from eight stations located in the area. Two of the most applied methods of statistical distribution, Gumbel’s extreme value distribution and log Pearson type III distribution, were applied to maximum daily rainfall data over 26 to 40 years. The Gumbel’s model was found to be the best fitting model for identifying and predicting future rainfall occurrence. Rainfall estimations from different return periods were identified. Probable maximum floods of the major wadis studied were also estimated for different return periods, which were extrapolated from the probable maximum precipitation.     

潮白河流域降水演变及其径流效应

分析了潮白河流域1991~2000年降水资料时空演变规律,采用同倍比放大法对各年的降水数据进行整体轮换处理,处理后各年总降水量为1991~2000年的平均年降水量。随后基于GBHM(Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model)模型进行了10年径流量模拟。结果显示,在降水总量相同的情况下,1994年型降水时空分布最有利于产流,径流总量与峰值流量最大,1999年型径流总量与峰值流量最小。1994年型径流总量是1999年型径流总量的3.88倍;1994年型峰值流量是1999年型峰值流量的35.87倍。由此可见,降水总量相同时,其时空分布对径流总量和峰值的影响极大。     

小流域地下裂隙潜流对降雨入渗补给的响应特性

采用翻斗法自动量水技术和时域反射仪,对“岩土二元结构”小流域降雨过程、流域出口地下裂隙潜流以及坡地岩土水分的变化进行了测定与分析。试验结果表明,小流域坡地特有的岩土二元结构体具有较强的储、透水性能,小流域在前期坡地岩土水分平均为14.48%(埋深100cm范围内)的前提下,发生总降雨量170.25mm,降雨历时31h,平均强度5.5mmh的大暴雨,在小流域出口处未产生地表迳流;地下裂隙潜流对降雨具有明显的响应,起涨和回落过程均较为明显,峰值流量达到810Lh,是降雨前的32.4倍。因此,科学合理地利用“岩土二元结构”的水文地质特性对缓解洪峰的形成,降低洪灾具有重要作用,同时对山区的雨水资源化问题也具有重要的实际意义。     

Impact assessment of land cover changes on the runoff changes on the extreme flood events in the Kelantan River basin

In the current years, changing the land cover/land use had serious hydrological impacts affecting the flood events in the Kelantan River basin. The flood events at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia got highly affected in the recent decades due to several factors like urbanisation, rapid changes in the utilisation of land and lack of meteorological (i.e. change in climate) and developmental monitoring and planning. The Kelantan River basin has been highly influenced due to a rapid change in land use during 1984 to 2013, which occurred in the form of transformation of agricultural area and deforestation (logging activities). In order to evaluate the influence of the modifications in land cover on the flood events, two hydrological regional models of rainfall-induced runoff event, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) model and improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional model (Improved TRIGRS), were employed in this study. The responses of land cover changes on the peak flow and runoff volume were investigated using 10 days of hourly rainfall events from 20 December to the end of December 2014 at the study area. The usage of two hydrological models defined that the changes in land use/land cover caused momentous changes in hydrological response towards water flow. The outcomes also revealed that the increase of severe water flow at the study area is a function of urbanisation and deforestation, particularly in the conversion of the forest area to the less canopy coverage, for example, oil palm, mixed agriculture and rubber. The monsoon season floods and runoff escalate in the cleared land or low-density vegetation area, while the normal flow gets the contribution from interflow generated from secondary jungle and forested areas.     

Potential flood risk due to urbanization expansion in arid environments,Saudi Arabia

Natural Hazards - Urbanization of watersheds is known to increase the flood risk potentials. Since 1970, eastern Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, underwent rapid urbanization due to the high rate of...     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

岩溶石山区山坡表层径流水文动态特征对比分析——以桂林丫吉试验场为例

选择桂林丫吉试验场溶洞—硝岩洞及其上方的汇水坡面作为研究区,通过在不同降雨条件下,对坡面径流和硝盐洞中流水水文动态进行监测并做对比分析研究。结果表明:（1）降雨强度、降雨持续时间和各含水系统前期含水情况决定了岩溶石山区坡面地表和包气带水文动态变化过程;（2）在不同降雨条件下,地表坡面流和经过上部包气带调蓄过的硝盐洞水文动态都表现为暴涨暴落,坡面径流表现的更为明显,一般坡面径流的整个水文过程持续几个小时到十几个小时,而硝盐洞中流水水文过程持续13d;（3）一般大到暴雨条件下,坡面流最大流量大于硝盐洞,但由于持续时间短,其一场降雨后所获得的水量远不如下渗到包气带—硝盐洞中滴水水量。     

中国东部不同特征小流域水文对比观测试验分析

为探讨中国东部地区变化环境下水循环演变机制,通过水文站网加密观测、构建不同特征试验流域等方法,揭示了不同土地利用和不同城镇化水平下水文要素分布及响应规律。结果表明:①小流域内场次极端降雨局部差异较大,主要受到微地形和风向的影响。②鄞江镇试验流域水位涨幅和单位雨量水位涨幅均高于天然画龙溪试验流域,主要受到了流域大小和城镇化率等因素的影响。③城镇用地和耕地土壤水消退过程较快,林地退水过程相对较慢;浅层10cm、20cm和40cm土壤含水率对降雨滞后响应时间分别为0~0.25h、0.25~0.75h和0.5~0.75h,而深层(60cm和80cm)土壤含水率由于受到优势流的影响,响应较为复杂,响应时间变动范围较大。④小流域地下水对降雨的响应存在滞后性,响应时间为6.5~12h。     

Regional modelling of rainfall-induced runoff using hydrological model by incorporating plant cover effects: case study in Kelantan,Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to develop a spatial temporal runoff modelling of local rainfall patterns effect on the plant cover hilly lands in Kelantan River Basin. Rainfall interception loss based on leaf area index, loss/infiltration on the ground surface, and runoff calculation were considered as the main plant cover effects on the runoff volume. In this regard, a hydrological and geotechnical grid-based regional model (integrated model) was performed using Microsoft Excel^® and GIS framework system for deterministic modelling of rainfall-induced runoff by incorporating plant cover effects. The infiltration process of the current model was integrated with the precipitation distribution method and rainfall interception approach while the runoff analysis of integrated model was employed based on loss/infiltration water on the ground surface with consideration of water interception loss by canopy and the remaining surface water. In the following, the spatial temporal analysis of rainfall-induced runoff was performed using 10 days of hourly rainfall events at the end of December 2014 in Kelantan River Basin. The corresponding changes in pressure head and consequent rate of infiltration were calculated during rainfall events. Subsequently, flood volume is computed using local rainfall patterns, along with water interception loss and the remaining surface water in the study area. The results showed the land cover changes caused significant differences in hydrological response to surface water. The increase in runoff volume of the Kelantan River Basin is as a function of deforestation and urbanization, especially converting the forest area to agricultural land (i.e. rubber and mixed agriculture).     

中国城市洪涝问题及成因分析

随着经济社会的发展,中国步入城镇化快速发展的阶段,城镇化率已由2000年的36.22%增加到2014年的54.77%。在全球气候变化与快速城镇化背景下,中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重。阐述了全球气候变化及城镇化对城市降水和极端暴雨的影响机制,并从流域产汇流角度分析了城镇化对洪水过程的影响,系统剖析了中国城市洪涝频发的主要原因。在成因分析的基础上,进一步提出了中国城市洪涝防治的应对策略,主要包括:①以低影响开发理念为指导,加强城市基础设施建设,建设海绵城市;②建立城市洪涝立体监测、预报预警和实时调度系统,强化城市洪涝科学决策能力;③健全和完善城市洪涝应急预案,强化应急管理能力,完善灾害救助和恢复机制。     

天山南坡黄水沟与清水河寒区流域极端水文事件对气候变化的响应

冰川、积雪和冻土变化产生的水文效应对下游水资源供给具有重要影响,近几十年来新疆区域洪水呈显著加重趋势,尤其是南疆区域洪水明显加剧. 以天山南坡黄水沟与清水河寒区流域为研究区域,通过分析水文站极端水文事件,结合流域上游山区巴伦台气象站资料,研究了高寒山地流域在气候变化背景下极端水文过程出现时间、年最大和最小径流的响应特征. 结果表明：1986年是水文过程的突变点,从1986年开始随着降水、气温的增加,河流径流量呈增加趋势;最大年径流出现时间从6月中下旬推迟到7月下旬;最大径流和最小径流与年径流量呈正相关关系,最大径流与夏季降水关系密切,而最小年径流与冬春季的气温关系密切. 随着1986年以来的气温升高,冻土退化产生的水文效应使冬季径流增加明显,也使年最小径流明显增大;1986年以来降水变化决定着年径流量增加,使年最大径流集中出现在夏季且量级增大. 总体来讲,20世纪80年代中期以后山区河流年极端洪峰量增大,洪水量增多,年际间变化幅度明显增大,从而对下游造成更严重的灾害. 因此,加强气候变化对寒区流域水资源和洪水灾害的影响评估,使科学技术在减灾方面发挥主导作用.     

Sensitivity analysis of runoff hydrographs due to temporal rainfall patterns in Makkah Al-Mukkramah region,Saudi Arabia

Runoff peak and volume in flood studies are estimated relying on temporal rainfall distribution from various storm patterns. Usually, SCS distributions types (I, II, III, IA) are commonly used. Using these distributions in runoff calculations assume that the in situ temporal rainfall pattern typically behaves as the one described by the SCS-type distribution, which is due to cyclonic frontal storms and actually developed in temperate environment. To what extent such assumption is valid in the arid environment? How much the impacts of rainfall temporal patterns are reflected in runoff volumes and peaks? The aim objectives of the current study are to answer the above two questions and clarify the validity of aforementioned assumption and exemplify such effect. Real rainfall data collected from rain gauges of Makkah Al-Mukkramah region over a period of more than 20 years are utilized. Temporal rainfall patterns and their parameters are deduced. Many hydrological simulations are performed and comparisons, in terms of runoff volume and peak flows, are made to show the effects of the common rainfall storm patterns and the developed rainfall storm patterns in the region based on the current study. Results indicate that major bursts of the design rainfall storm pattern are located in the first time of the storm period in the two quartiles which is mainly due to convective rainfall type in thunderstorms unlike the commonly used by SCS types relying on frontal cyclonic storms. Makkah Al-Mukkramah temporal rainfall pattern does not behave as the “typical pattern” assumed by SCS distributions that are deduced from different environments. The impacts of the temporal pattern reflected as an overestimate in the runoff peak reached to 68 %. The developed hyetographs and tables presented in the current study are recommended to enhance economical and rational design practice in watersheds of Makkah Al-Mukkramah region.     

Discussion of “Interfacing the geographic information system,remote sensing,and the soil conservation service-curve number method to estimate curve number and runoff volume in the ASIR region of Saudi Arabia” by Fawzi S. Mohammad,Jan Adamowski

The soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) method is one of the most commonly used methods to compute the direct runoff from a rainfall event. Since the method was established, numerous researches were undertaken to improve the method through accurate estimation of its parameter and especially the curve number (CN). However, the essence of the SCS method, as an event-based Hortonian mechanism method, remained unchanged. The main assumption of the method related to the rainfall input is that the rainfall is continuous in time and uniform over the watershed. Mohammad and Adamowski (2015) paper apparently used the SCS method to estimate the annual runoff using the annual rainfall as one cumulative rainfall input value, which is a violation of the event-based principle of the method and of the assumption of the continuity of the rainfall event.To re-estimate the average annual runoff more realistically for the Asir region, Saudi Arabia, daily rainfall data from 14 rainfall stations are used for calculating the resulting runoff depths, on a daily event-by-event rainfall basis, throughout the whole simulation period. The resulting runoff depths are added for each year, and the total cumulative annual runoff values for each year are averaged to get the average annual runoff. The runoff values based on the previously mentioned procedure are an upper limit of the actual average annual runoff as the underlying SCS equations discard evaporation and similar long-term losses. Nevertheless, the average runoff values obtained in the discussion paper are an order of magnitude (at least five to tenfold) lower than the ones of the original paper. An equation is proposed to obtain a more realistic estimate of the average annual runoff, to be used with the average annual rainfall as an input, if the annual value is the only available rainfall information.     

Sizing first flush pollutant loading of stormwater runoff in tropical urban catchments

This study aimed at investigating the first flush phenomenon from residential, commercial and industrial catchments. Stormwater was grab sampled and the flow rate was measured during 52 storm events. The dimensionless cumulative pollutant mass and runoff volume were used to determine the runoff volume needed to transport 50 and 80 % of total pollutant mass. Almost all the constituents did not satisfy this first flush definition except for total suspended solids (TSS) in the commercial catchment. The averages first runoff volume required to remove 50 and 80 % of the total pollutant mass were 37 and 67, 35 and 65, and 36 and 64 % for the residential, commercial and industrial catchments, respectively. It seemed that less runoff is required to transport the same amount of pollutant loadings in tropical urban catchments than in temperate regions. BOD, COD, NH₃-N, SRP and TP consistently showed strong first flush effects in all catchments. The first flush strengths of TSS, BOD, COD, NH₃-N and TP in the commercial catchment were strongly correlated with total rainfall, rainfall duration, max 5 min intensity, runoff volume and peak flow, but not with antecedent dry days. Management of the first 10 mm runoff depth would be able to capture about half of the total pollutant mass in stormwater runoff that would otherwise goes to drains.     

集水区降雨径流晌应的环境同位素实验研究

利用环境同位素氚和氧-18对实验集水区进行降雨和径流响应的研究表明:(1)地面径流必源于本次降雨的概念不确,其中往往有非本次降雨的水量.经对1986年～1989年各次降雨估算表明,非本次降雨贡献最高可达50.5%.(2)非饱和带壤中流和饱和带地下水径流中必有非本次降雨的水量,并与地面径流一样,在次降雨径流过程中有时程变化.(3)对不同径流组成的流量过程,非本次降雨所占的比重不同.通过分析,可知降雨径流相关关系中的一一对应假定不确切,认为:传统的降雨径流经验关系和单位线概念需重新考虑;传统的过程线经验划分方法和现行同位素划分方法的有关基本假定不完全符合实际.     

基于HEC-HMS模型的不同雨型泥石流流量变化特征

为了探究不同雨型条件下泥石流流量变化特征,通过搜集汶川震区典型泥石流降雨数据,将其概化为三次峰值早到型、三次峰值型、三次峰值晚到型三种雨型。以HEC-HMS水文模型构建高家沟流域模型,在获得流域清水流量结果基础上采用雨洪修正法计算不同雨型下泥石流流量。结果表明三次峰值早到型、三次峰值型、三次峰值晚到型峰值清水流量分别为33.5,41.5,45.8 m3/s,泥石流峰值流量分别为166.83,206.67,228.08 m3/s,误差为-25.6%、-7.8%、1.7%;三种雨型下流量从上游至沟口以线性方式演变,且随降雨峰值推迟其演变速率不断增大,而增长幅度逐渐减小;泥石流暴发出现在峰值降雨前后,属于降雨激发型泥石流;三种雨型随降雨峰值推迟,流量增长阶段所需时间越长,分别为5.5,6,9 h,而衰退阶段所需时间越短,分别为14.5,8,2.5 h。研究表明该模型能为缺少降雨监测数据地区泥石流研究提供技术支持。     

环境变化对黄河中游汾河径流情势的影响研究

20世纪70年代后我国许多河流的径流量呈下降的趋势.在这些趋势变化中,如何区分人类活动及气候变化的影响是当前流域水文研究的热点和难点.提出了区分人类活动和气候变化影响的分析思路以及定量计算方法.介绍了SIMHYD概念性降水径流模型,并应用黄河中游汾河流域"天然"时期的水文、气象资料率定了模型参数,通过水文模拟还原了人类活动影响期间的天然径流量,进而分析了汾河流域径流情势的变化原因.结果表明:SIMHYD降水径流模型对汾河流域天然月径流过程具有良好的模拟效果;就1970-1999年的平均状况而言,气候因素和人类活动对径流的影响量分别占径流减少总量的35.9%和4.1%,人类活动是汾河流域径流减少的主要因素.