Mapping three-dimensional co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>7.2 Murghab earthquake based on InSAR and characteristics of crustal strain

Three-dimensional (3D) co-seismic surface deformations are of great importance to interpret the characteristics of coseismic deformations and to understand the geometries and dynamics of seismogenic faults. In this paper, we propose a method for mapping 3D co-seismic deformations based on InSAR observations and crustal strain characteristics. In addition, the search strategy of correlation points is optimized by adaptive correlation distance, which greatly improves the applicability of the proposed method in restoring deformations in decorrelation areas. Results of the simulation experiment reveal that the proposed method is superior to conventional methods in both the accuracy and completeness. The proposed method is then applied to map the 3D co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 M_W7.2 Murghab earthquake using ascending and descending ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images. The results show that the seismogenic fault is the Sarez-Karakul fault (SKF), which is dominated by NE-SW strike slips with an almost vertical dip angle. The north section and the south segment near the epicentre have obvious subsidence along with a southwestward motion in the northwest wall, and the southeast wall has northeast movement and surface uplift trend along the fault zone. The strain field of the earthquake is also obtained by the proposed method. It is found that the crustal block of the seismic area is obviously affected by dilatation and shear forces, which is in good agreement with the movement character of the sinistral slip.     

2021年青海玛多Mw7.5地震的同震变形及断层滑动模型研究

2021年5月22日,中国青海玛多县发生了M_W7.5地震.针对此次地震,国内外多家机构发布的震源机制解和有限断层滑动模型结果大都是基于半无限空间地球模型的位错理论反演得到的,未考虑地球曲率和层状效应的影响.该影响的量级以及其是否可以忽略目前仍是一个未知问题,值得研究.为此,本文利用美国地质调查局(USGS)、中国科学院青藏高原研究所以及中国地震局地球物理研究所提供的三个断层模型,基于弹性半无限空间、均质球、PREM三种地球模型的位错理论,分别计算了地表同震位移场和应变场,并对比分析了这些结果的差异.我们发现基于PREM位错理论的同震位移场与半无限空间模型的对应值差异约为3~28 cm,占PREM位错理论值的10%~30%,应变场差异更大,表明地球曲率和层状效应的影响不可忽略.此外,理论同震形变结果与GNSS和InSAR形变观测数据对比发现,基于PREM模型的理论位移场最接近于观测值.利用InSAR数据和三种地球模型反演得到的有限断层滑动模型存在差异,说明了地球模型的选择对断层模型的反演具有一定影响.本文的结果为今后对此次地震的观测数据物理解释和断层滑动反演提供了理论参考.     

Generalization of the results of long-term strainmeter and GPS observations for intraplate regions

The measurements of contemporary deformations in Asia in the region of active seismic processes stretching from Northern Tien Shan through Altai and Sayan Mountains to Lake Baikal have been carried out for a few decades by strainmeters and tiltmeters. Recently, these works were expanded by the network measurements by the methods of space geodesy. Studying the contemporary displacements and deformations of the Earth’s crust is necessary for solving various problems on a wide range of spatial and time scales from exploring the contemporary deformations of the tectonic plates and present-day seismicity to estimating the man-made loads on the geological medium. The measurements of the deformations are conducted by different methods with short and long baselines, on the surface and at different depths. Based on the obtained data, it is possible to analyze the strain rates at different frequencies and to compare them with the level of seismic activity in the region. In recent decades, the seismic zone located in the south of the Siberian platforms experienced a few strong (M = 6.3–7.5) earthquakes, during which the deformation and displacement fields were captured. South of this region, the displacement fields during the earthquakes with the magnitude above 8 were recorded by the space geodetic methods in China. By excluding the coseismic effects, one can estimate the tectonic component of the displacements and deformations.     

Earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios in Southern Italy based on spectral-matching input analysis

The Tyrrhenian portion of the Calabria region (southern Italy) is particularly prone to landslides as a consequence of intense morphodynamic processes. These processes affect the slopes that are composed of highly jointed metamorphic rock masses. Moreover, the frequent intense rainfalls and the up to Mw 7.0 regional earthquakes represent the main landslide triggering factors. An area of approximately $45\,\hbox {km}^{2}$ was selected as a test site in the context of a regional project aimed at reconstructing possible earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios (i.e., referred to already existing landslide masses). An inventory map led to the identification of 175 landslides, including rock slides, earth slides and rock falls. Ground-motion scenarios based on a spectral-matching method were derived to evaluate the expected earthquake-induced displacements of the existing landslides. Naturally recorded acceleration time histories were selected from international ground-motion databases based on a similarity index and considered representative of the seismological features of the considered seismic sources (i.e., epicentral distance, magnitude, focal mechanism). Spectral attenuation was considered, according to well-established attenuation laws, to define the expected response spectrum at the outcropping bedrock corresponding to each existing landslide. Subsequently, the selected natural records were modified to guarantee spectral matching with the attenuated response spectra at each landslide site. The derived time histories were used to compute co-seismic displacements via the classic Newmark’s sliding-block method. Different scenarios of co-seismic landslide displacements or collapse were generated for different pore-water pressure hypotheses. The strongest $\hbox {Mw}>6$ seismic scenario (Messina Straits seismogenic source) indicated an exceedance probability of earthquake-induced co-seismic landslide collapse varying from 20 to 55 % with the increasing severity of the pore-water pressures. This probability corresponds to a percentage of co-seismic landslide displacements up to 40 % of the total inventoried landslides. The exceedance probability indicated that co-seismic landslide collapse drops below 20 % for $\hbox {Mw}<6$ seismic scenarios. In contrast, if a uniform probability is assumed for the seismic action occurrence, i.e., return periods of 475 and 2,475 years, the total percentage of landslide co-seismic displacements could be as high as 70 and 90 %, respectively, for the considered pore-water pressures.     

Co-seismic fault geometry and slip distribution of the 26 December 2004, giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake constrained by GPS,coral reef,and remote sensing data

We analyze co-seismic displacement field of the 26 December 2004, giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake derived from Global Position System observations,geological vertical measurement of coral head, and pivot line observed through remote sensing. Using the co-seismic displacement field and AK135 spherical layered Earth model, we invert co-seismic slip distribution along the seismic fault. We also search the best fault geometry model to fit the observed data. Assuming that the dip angle linearly increases in downward direction, the postfit residual variation of the inversed geometry model with dip angles linearly changing along fault strike are plotted. The geometry model with local minimum misfits is the one with dip angle linearly increasing along strike from 4.3oin top southernmost patch to 4.5oin top northernmost path and dip angle linearly increased. By using the fault shape and geodetic co-seismic data, we estimate the slip distribution on the curved fault. Our result shows that the earthquake ruptured *200-km width down to a depth of about 60 km.0.5–12.5 m of thrust slip is resolved with the largest slip centered around the central section of the rupture zone78N–108N in latitude. The estimated seismic moment is8.2 9 1022 N m, which is larger than estimation from the centroid moment magnitude(4.0 9 1022 N m), and smaller than estimation from normal-mode oscillation data modeling(1.0 9 1023 N m).     

地形效应和局部地质构造对计算同震形变的影响——以2011年日本东北大地震（Mw9.0）为例

本文利用二维有限元数值模拟方法,以2011年日本东北M_w9.0级大地震为例,探讨了地形和局部地质构造等物理因素对计算同震形变的影响.计算中使用了双节点技术构成断层滑动面,同时考虑了均质、层状、地形以及俯冲板片等不同构造介质模型.对不同介质模型分别计算并进行比较,以便考察不同物理因素的影响.数值计算结果表明：海沟地形对计算同震形变的影响非常大,局部地质构造的影响也很明显,而同时考虑地形和局部地质构造所产生的影响要比仅考虑地形效应更大,其影响在水平方向和垂直方向上分别达到-1.78~0.8 m和-1.4~0.64 m,相应的百分比分别为34%和92%.这些结果表明起伏较大的地形（特别是海山）及局部地质构造对计算同震形变的影响都不容忽略,它们均能被现代大地测量技术（如GPS、InSAR等）观测到,在计算同震形变或进行断层反演时应该加以考虑.     

Preliminary analysis on the source properties and seismogenic structure of the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake

At GMT time 13:19, August 8, 2017, an M_s7.0 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region in Sichuan Province, China, causing severe damages and casualties. To investigate the source properties, seismogenic structures, and seismic hazards, we systematically analyzed the tectonic environment, crustal velocity structure in the source region, source parameters and rupture process, Coulomb failure stress changes, and 3-D features of the rupture plane of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Our results indicate the following: (1) The Jiuzhaigou earthquake occurred on an unmarked fault belonging to the transition zone of the east Kunlun fault system and is located northwest of the Huya fault. (2) Both the mainshock and aftershock rupture zones are located in a region where crustal seismic velocity changes dramatically. Southeast to the source region, shear wave velocity at the middle to lower crust is significantly low, but it rapidly increases northeastward and lies close to the background velocity across the rupture fault. (3) The aftershock zone is narrow and distributes along the northwest-southeast trend, and most aftershocks occur within a depth range of 5–20 km. (4) The focal mechanism of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake indicates a left-lateral strike-slip fault, with strike, dip, and rake angles of 152°, 74° and 8°, respectively. The hypocenter depth measures 20 km, whereas the centroid depth is about 6 km. The co-seismic rupture mainly concentrates at depths of 3–13 km, with a moment magnitude (M_w) of 6.5. (5) The co-seismic rupture also strengthens the Coulomb failure stress at the two ends of the rupture fault and the east segment of the Tazang fault. Aftershocks relocation results together with geological surveys indicate that the causative fault is a near vertical fault with notable spatial variations: dip angle varies within 66°–89° from northwest to southeast and the average dip angle measures ~84°. The results of this work are of fundamental importance for further studies on the source characteristics, tectonic environment, and seismic hazard evaluation of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

Finite fault analysis and near-field dynamic strain and rotation estimates due to the 11/05/2011 (Mw5.2) Lorca earthquake,south-eastern Spain

The 11/5/2011 Lorca, Spain earthquake (Mw \(\,=\,\) 5.2) and related seismicity produced extensive damage in the town of Lorca and vicinity. During these earthquakes, evidence of rotations and permanent deformations in structures were observed. To analyze these aspects and study the source properties from the near-field, the displacement time histories were obtained including the static component at Lorca station. Displacement time histories were computed by an appropriate double time integration procedure of accelerograms. Using these data, the foreshock and mainshock slip distributions were calculated by means of a complete waveform kinematic inversion. To study the dynamic deformations, the 3D tensor of displacement gradients at Lorca station was first estimated by a single station method. Using the finite fault inversion results and by means of a first order finite difference approach, the dynamic deformations tensor at surface was calculated at the recording site. In order to estimate the distribution of the peak dynamic deformations, the calculation was extended to the close neighboring area of the town. The possible influence of the near-field deformations on the surface structures was analyzed.     

Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.     

利用同震和震后位移数据联合反演2011年日本MW9.0地震同震断层滑动

基于黏弹性球体位错理论, 联合陆地和海底同震GPS数据以及日本本岛330个陆地GPS站点5~10年的震后数据, 反演了日本M_W9.0地震的断层滑动模型, 提升了断层滑动分布在细节上的合理性。 首先, 基于日本本岛330个陆地GPS站点震前2年和震后10年的连续观测数据, 获取了日本M_W9.0地震震后5~10年的年平均位移, 该时段的位移几乎完全由地幔黏弹性松弛效应引起; 接着, 利用黏弹性球体位错理论对震后5~10年的位移进行反复拟合, 确定了日本M_W9.0地震震源及周边地区的地幔黏滞性系数最优解(9.0×10¹⁸ Pa·s)。 然后, 联合同震和震后位移数据, 引入黏弹性位错格林函数, 反演了2011年日本M_W9.0地震的断层滑动分布。 结果表明, 该地震同震破裂的最大值达到了62.72 m, 同震滑动的总地震矩为4.48×10²² Nm, 相应的矩震级为M_W9.03。 由于黏弹性松弛效应引起的震后位移中包含了同震破裂的信息, 基于黏弹性球体地震位错理论, 联合同震和震后位移数据反演断层同震破裂, 有效提高了日本M_W9.0地震断层滑动分布的可靠性。 最后, 本文提出的反演方法为同震观测结果缺乏的大地震震后科考提供了理论支撑: 在大地震发生之后, 即使在同震期间没有足够的观测数据, 也可以在震后通过对震源区的加密观测积累的震后数据, 使用本文提出的反演方法优化同震断层滑动模型。     

Features of Radiation and Propagation of Seismic Waves in the Northern Caucasus: Manifestations in Regional Coda

Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (M_W > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.     

Co-seismic change of length of day based on the point dislocation theory for a SNREI Earth

We developed a new approach for computing the changes in the length of day (LOD) due to earthquakes from both shear- and tensile-type faults. This approach was based on the point dislocation theory for a SNREI Earth, which was validated by comparing our results with the ones obtained by the normal mode method. We defined two numerical functions that vary with hypocenter depth. These functions allow us to compute the co-seismic change of the trace of the Earth's inertia tensor, and hence the co-seismic LOD change. For future applications, by adding a trace term, we corrected Lambeck's formulas (Lambeck, 1980), which are being commonly used for computing co-seismic LOD change. Finally, the new approach was used to compute the co-seismic LOD change from 1977 to 2011. The results show that the co-seismic trace and the co-seismic J₂ changes contribute to the LOD change with the same magnitude (Gross and Chao, 2006). This means that, unlike other deformation mechanisms, the trace term cannot be neglected when modeling the co-seismic LOD change. The earthquakes from 1977 to 2011 decreased the LOD by about 12 μs, and the rate of decrease was enhanced after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake due to several large earthquakes.     

Hovsgol earthquake 5 December 2014, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.9: seismic and acoustic effects

A moderate shallow earthquake occurred on 5 December 2014 (M _W = 4.9) in the north of Lake Hovsgol (northern Mongolia). The infrasonic signal with duration 140 s was recorded for this earthquake by the “Tory” infrasound array (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Russia). Source parameters of the earthquake (seismic moment, geometrical sizes, displacement amplitudes in the focus) were determined using spectral analysis of direct body P and S waves. The spectral analysis of seismograms and amplitude variations of the surface waves allows to determine the effect of the propagation of the rupture in the earthquake focus, the azimuth of the rupture propagation direction and the velocity of displacement in the earthquake focus. The results of modelling of the surface displacements caused by the Hovsgol earthquake and high effective velocity of propagation of infrasound signal (~ 625 m/s) indicate that its occurrence is not caused by the downward movement of the Earth’s surface in the epicentral region but by the effect of the secondary source. The position of the secondary source of infrasound signal is defined on the northern slopes of the Khamar-Daban ridge according to the data on the azimuth and time of arrival of acoustic wave at the Tory station. The interaction of surface waves with the regional topography is proposed as the most probable mechanism of formation of the infrasound signal.     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

Modification of fault slip models of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake by far field GPS observations

GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the M_w 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation.     

Tomographic inversion of near-surface <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> factor by combining surface and cross-hole seismic surveys

The estimation of the quality factor Q plays a fundamental role in enhancing seismic resolution via absorption compensation in the near-surface layer. We present a new geometry that can be used to acquire field data by combining surface and cross-hole surveys to decrease the effect of geophone coupling on Q estimation. In this study, we drilled number of receiver holes around the source hole, each hole has different depth and each geophone is placed geophones into the bottom of each receiver hole to avoid the effect of geophone coupling with the borehole wall on Q estimation in conventional cross-hole seismic surveys. We also propose a novel tomographic inversion of the Q factor without the effect of the source signature, and examine its stability and reliability using synthetic data. We estimate the Q factors of the near-surface layer in two different frequency bands using field data acquired in the Dagang Oilfield. The results show that seismic absorption in the near-surface layer is much greater than that in the subsurface strata. Thus, it is of critical practical importance to enhance the seismic solution by compensating for near-surface absorption. In addition, we derive different Q factors from two frequency bands, which can be treated, to some extent, as evidence of a frequency-dependent Q.     

断层地表同震位错的平均位移估计方法

根据管道性能设计的理念,现行管道抗震设计规范规定现行输油气管道重要区段和一般区段的设防断层位移分别为预测的最大位移值和平均位移值,目前的断层位移估计方法一般给出的只是断层未来一百年的最大位移值,而不能给出平均位移值。针对此问题,本文综合国内外发震断层在地表的同震位错分布调查结果,总结分析了断层同震位错沿断层地表破裂走向的分布形态特点,并通过对实际震例中不同计算方法得到的平均位移进行对比分析,得到了断层的平均同震位错量与断层最大同震位错量的比值关系。基于国内外地震断层位移的大量数据,考虑一定的安全系数,本文建议采用预测断层最大位移值的2/3作为一般区段输油气管道的设防断层位移。      

Geometrical focusing as a mechanism for significant amplification of ground motion in sedimentary basins: analytical and numerical study

We study the geometrical and material conditions which lead to focusing of seismic waves traveling across a concave velocity interface representing the boundary of a sedimentary basin within a denser rock. We approximate, using geometrical analysis for plane-waves, the combination of interface eccentricities and velocity ratios for which the seismic rays converge to a near surface region of the basin. 2-D finite difference modeling is used to compute Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and spectral amplification across the basin. We show that effective geometrical focusing occurs for a narrow set of eccentricities and velocity ratios, where seismic energy is converged to a region of $\pm $ 0.5 km from surface. This mechanism leads to significant amplification of PGV at the center of the basin, up to a factor of 3; frequencies of the modeled spectrum are amplified up to the corner frequency of the source. Finally, we suggest a practical method for evaluating the potential for effective geometrical focusing in sedimentary basins.     

Mapping three-dimensional co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 M_W7.2 Murghab earthquake based on InSAR and characteristics of crustal strain

Three-dimensional(3 D) co-seismic surface deformations are of great importance to interpret the characteristics of coseismic deformations and to understand the geometries and dynamics of seismogenic faults. In this paper, we propose a method for mapping 3 D co-seismic deformations based on InSAR observations and crustal strain characteristics. In addition, the search strategy of correlation points is optimized by adaptive correlation distance, which greatly improves the applicability of the proposed method in restoring deformations in decorrelation areas. Results of the simulation experiment reveal that the proposed method is superior to conventional methods in both the accuracy and completeness. The proposed method is then applied to map the 3 D co-seismic surface deformations associated with the 2015 MW7.2 Murghab earthquake using ascending and descending ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 images. The results show that the seismogenic fault is the Sarez-Karakul fault(SKF), which is dominated by NE-SW strike slips with an almost vertical dip angle. The north section and the south segment near the epicentre have obvious subsidence along with a southwestward motion in the northwest wall, and the southeast wall has northeast movement and surface uplift trend along the fault zone. The strain field of the earthquake is also obtained by the proposed method. It is found that the crustal block of the seismic area is obviously affected by dilatation and shear forces, which is in good agreement with the movement character of the sinistral slip.     

A terrestrial shear pattern?

The concept of the strain ellipsoid is applied to indicate a possible regular shear pattern of earthquake distribution over the Earth's surface. A simple model of the Earth is assumed in the form of a rotating sphere with a plastic interior and a thin, fragile, crust. On this basis rotation of the Earth generates an internal radial pressure at the equator equivalent to 1/300g causing a proportionate distortion of the spherical shell. The system is in dynamic equilibrium with an increase in gravity at the equator. The ellipsoid representing the distortion, has orthogonal principal axes corresponding to the principal strains while radial directions at 54°44 from the poles are unchanged in length and are thus possible axes of shear generating the same distortion. The Alpide region of earthquakes extending from Lisbon to Tokyo and restriction of earthquakes mainly to the broad band between latitudes 55°N or S are in support of the proposed view.Four unique sets of orthogonal shear systems have been identified which form a regular pattern with a definite symmetry with respect to the plane of the ecliptic. This suggests that the hoop stress at the Equator associated with Earth rotation may be triggered off by tidal forces and that earthquake prediction may well be possible. Other implications of this new approach are also discussed.