赣江上游区 LAI 时空变化及其与气候要素的关联性分析

受全球气候变化影响,陆地植被呈明显的动态变化特性,植被对气候变化的响应关系已成为气候学、生态学领域的热点问题。选取赣江上游峡山水文站以上集水区为研究区,基于1982～2014年气象和叶面积指数(LAI)数据,分析研究区气候要素和LAI的时空演变特征,剖析LAI与气候要素的关联性,解译研究区LAI对气候变化的响应机制。结果表明:研究区近33年气温呈显著升高趋势,降水呈不显著的减少趋势,日照时长总体为增加趋势;研究区LAI显著增加,通过比较研究区5景不同时期土地利用图发现人类活动对陆地植被的影响不明显,气候要素是引起LAI动态变化的主导因素;LAI对各气候要素的敏感度由高至低:气温日照时长降水。     

中国地下水资源演变趋势及影响因素分析

中国地下水资源发生了显著变化,全面摸清地下水资源演变趋势及其影响因素是治理和管理地下水资源的基础。基于全国水资源调查评价、中国水资源公报等资料,对中国60余年来地下水资源的演变规律与影响因素进行了系统分析。结果表明：全国地下水资源量总体稳定,但区域演变趋势差异明显,海河区、辽河区、黄河区呈明显衰减态势;地下水补给结构发生重大变化,由自然补给演变为自然与人工补给并存的模式;地下水排泄结构发生巨大变异,由天然排泄逐渐演变为以人工排泄为主。海河区、松花江区、黄河区、西北诸河区等区域地下水补给排泄关系严重失衡,超采问题突出;降水变化、下垫面条件改变、人类活动干扰是地下水资源变化的主要原因。     

中国地下水资源演变趋势及影响因素分析

中国地下水资源发生了显著变化,全面摸清地下水资源演变趋势及其影响因素是治理和管理地下水资源的基础。基于全国水资源调查评价、中国水资源公报等资料,对中国60余年来地下水资源的演变规律与影响因素进行了系统分析。结果表明:全国地下水资源量总体稳定,但区域演变趋势差异明显,海河区、辽河区、黄河区呈明显衰减态势;地下水补给结构发生重大变化,由自然补给演变为自然与人工补给并存的模式;地下水排泄结构发生巨大变异,由天然排泄逐渐演变为以人工排泄为主。海河区、松花江区、黄河区、西北诸河区等区域地下水补给排泄关系严重失衡,超采问题突出;降水变化、下垫面条件改变、人类活动干扰是地下水资源变化的主要原因。     

青海省近50年极端降水事件时空分布特征

基于线性倾向估计、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验及空间插值等方法,对1962—2013年28个均匀分布在青海省内的气象站点数据近50 a(1962—2013年)极端降水事件的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,在长期趋势上青海省极端降水事件呈上升趋势,其强度与频数变化分别具有28 a和15 a±的主周期,并且少数站点在20世纪90年代发生突变;青海省内的极端降水事件在空间上存在明显差异,整体呈自西向东逐渐增强的特征,极端降水事件在南部地区发生频率总体高于北部地区,东南部发生极端降水的频率最高;近50 a青海省内大部分地区极端降水事件的强度与频数均呈上升趋势,其中东北部地区极端降水事件的强度上升趋势较为明显,仅有东南端与西北端呈现下降趋势,极端降水事件频数的上升趋势由东南端及西北端分别向中部加强。     

近50年来我国北方典型区域地下水演化特征

文章在总结中国北方地下水最新调查成果的基础上,选择西北内陆盆地、华北平原和松嫩平原为典型区,对近50年来区域地下水系统的演变特征及其影响因素进行探讨。研究发现: 我国北方盆地和平原地下水系统演化具有渐变性和突变性特征,但在不同地区存在着差异,区域地下水系统已经变得脆弱,地下水资源可持续利用向不利的方向发展。地下水补给演变表现为山前平原地带的补给能力减弱,河道补给减弱或消失,中下游农业区地下水补给强度增大,总补给量呈现减小的趋势;  其中,西北内陆盆地下水补给的减少与上游水资源利用过度、渠系防渗程度提高有关;  而华北平原和松嫩平原地下水总补给量的减少与降雨量的减少和山区河流拦蓄水量的增加有关。伴随着补给模式的改变,地下水流场演变表现为普遍出现持续性的区域地下水位下降,西北干旱区表现为山前平原地下水位快速下降、泉流量减少、溢出带下移;  华北平原和松嫩平原表现为溢出带消失、水位降落漏斗形成并发展,区域地下水流被截断,形成以降落漏斗为中心的局部水流系统。地下水化学场变化主要表现为水化学类型变化、矿化度增大,污染组分增加。自西北内陆盆地至华北平原、松嫩平原,水化学变化强度明显增加,以华北平原和松嫩平原最为明显。本文在这些认识的基础上提出了应对气候变化与人类活动双重影响下地下水演变的适应性对策,为地下水资源可持续利用提供了理论依据。     

山东省聊城市水资源演变形势初步探讨

以地处华北平原的缺水城市——聊城市为代表,从降水、地表水资源、地下水资源分析了该市水资源演变情势,对影响水资源变化情势的主要人类活动如城市化、水利工程拦蓄、调、引水、地下水开采等进行分析,最后得出结论：由于人类活动对区域水资源下垫面基础条件及地下水补给能力的影响改变,致使聊城市地表水,地下水资源的数量、质量及时空分布规律发生了显著变化。     

气候变化和人类活动对华北平原水资源影响分析

华北平原是我国粮食的重要产地.地下水资源是该地区的主要供水水源,在开采量增加和气候变化的影响下,水资源问题制约着该地区的发展.特别是近些年来降水量减少、气温呈上升趋势,使本来就少的水资源更削弱了补给资源.通过对降水、蒸发、地表径流、地下水流场变化、地下水资源的系列变化分析,认为降水量减少、气温升高、人类治水工程和开采地下水等因素是造成本地区水资源减少的重要原因.     

地下水对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

地下水是人类生活、生产、生态用水的重要水源。地下水含水层的补给及其开发利用是水资源可持续开发利用与管理的重要组成部分。浅层地下水的补给主要受制于气候变异与变化。气候变化影响研究从地表水扩展至地下水不仅有利于正确地评估可利用的淡水资源,而且对于改进气候模型,更完整的描写水文循环有重要的科学意义。自21世纪以来,欧美等国开始研究不同时空尺度的地下水补给的定量估算方法,并在气候变化对水资源影响的研究中,考虑了气候变化与人类活动对地下水补给的影响。目前在我国,无论对地下水观测资料的诊断分析,或对地下水补给模型的研制都尚属空白或起步阶段。本文对当前国际上研究地下水补给以及地下水对气候变化敏感性的研究现状予以综述,目的是为了推动我国关于气候变化对水资源影响的深入研究。     

辽河流域径流对气候变化的响应特征研究

近百年来,全球气候发生了以气温升高为主要特征的显著变化。东北是中国的重要粮食主产区,气候变化将可能加剧东北地区水资源短缺情势,进一步影响到国家的粮食安全。以辽河流域为对象,分析了近60年来降水径流变化特性,采用水文模拟方法,揭示了河川径流变化成因,基于假定气候情景,研究了河川径流量及土壤含水量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:铁岭站实测径流量自20世纪60年代中期以来,总体呈明显的阶段性减少趋势,人类活动是河川径流减少的主要原因。降水增加比减少对河川径流量的影响明显,土壤含水量对降水减少的响应更加敏感,气候暖干化趋势将非常不利于东北地区的水资源利用和农业生产。     

华北地下水古环境意义及古气候变化对地下水形成的影响

华北地下水的同位素和化学组分受补给时期的气候影响指示了过去３．５万ａ的气候变化,其δ１８Ｏ的变化反映出了晚更新世向全新世转变时期的气候变化和晚更新世气温的波动;而在全新世则反映了夏季风带来丰沛降水的湿度变化。据地下水１４Ｃ年龄统计特征结合其它地质记录划分出了地下水的补给期。全新世以来对地下水补给有意义的补给期是６ｋａＢ．Ｐ．左右和４ｋａＢ．Ｐ．左右,而３ｋａＢ．Ｐ．左右地下水补给明显间断,钻孔土壤水ωＣｌ变化说明３ｋａＢ．Ｐ．左右气候干旱对地下水产生重要影响,可能是后期浅部水咸化的主要时期。     

Study on the Climatic Change Features of Hebei Plain

Precipitation and groundwater are essential to water circulation and they mutually influence. Groundwater is the main water supply source in Hebei Plain. On the other hand, atmospheric precipitation infiltration recharge is the main supply source of the groundwater in this area. Therefore, the studies on Hebei Plain climatic change features are of great significance to further analyze the influences of climatic changes on groundwater resources. This paper selected 10 ground climatological stations in Hebei Plain in terms of daily precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution features of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the minimum temperature of Hebei Plain in recent 50 years increased significantly; the maximum temperature basically is stable; and the mean temperature presents an obviously increasing trend. In the spatial distribution, it gradually decreases from southwest to northeast on the whole and gradually tends to increase from the coastal to inland. The precipitation in recent 50 years owns obvious interannual change features and spatial distribution features, with a trend of overall periodic decrease and significant decrease of extreme precipitation. The annual mean precipitation intensity and annual mean extreme precipitation intensity gradually increased from piedmont plain to coastal plain. Hebei Plain has a warming and drying development trend on the whole. In space, piedmont plain belongs to the high-temperature and few-water area; coastal plain lies in low-temperature and much-water area; and central plain is in transitional zone. The climatic change and human activities are two influential factors of groundwater resources. Further revealing of the climatic change features of different geomorphic types and measuring and distinguishing of the influences of climatic change and human activities on groundwater remain to be further explored.     

玛纳斯河流域山前平原区蒸散发时空异质性分析

玛纳斯河流域气候干燥、蒸发强烈,准确估算蒸散发量对地下水资源评价及生态环境保护具有重要指导意义。以往蒸散发研究空间分辨率较低,已不能满足各水文地质分区景观格局演变引起的蒸散发细部变化研究,针对以往不足,文章基于SEBAL模型利用Landsat系列影像估算了近30年来玛纳斯河流域山前平原区蒸散发,并进一步探讨不同水文地质分区蒸散发时空分布特征及影响因素。结果表明,蒸散量空间分布按照水文地质分区呈现明显带状性,各水文地质分区日蒸散总量表现为戈壁带<荒漠带<绿洲带,时间尺度上全区蒸散总量呈上升趋势,且增大幅度逐渐变缓,各分区呈现绿洲带蒸散总量递增、戈壁带及荒漠带蒸散总量先减小后增大,各分区蒸散总量变化趋势是由各分区主地物类型蒸散量变化控制;通过对影响因素的分析可知日蒸散发量随气温的升高而升高,各地物日均蒸散发量与全区平均气温变化趋势一致;归一化植被指数与日蒸散发量在戈壁带与绿洲带呈现较好的正相关关系;地下水位埋深与日蒸散发量在绿洲带呈负相关,当地下水位埋深大于5. 5 m时,日蒸散发量趋于稳定。     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Küçük Menderes River Basin in Western Turkey

Groundwater is an important component of the global freshwater supply and is affected by climate. There is a strong need to understand and evaluate the impacts of climate change over the long term, in order to better plan and manage precious groundwater resources. Turkey, located in Mediterranean basin, is threatened by climate change. The purpose of this study was, through a quantitative overview, to determine the impacts of climate change on the groundwater recharge rates in Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. According to the data of Ödemi? and Selçuk meteorological stations located in the basin, there is a significantly decreasing trend in precipitation combined with increasing trends in temperature and evaporation observed in 1964–2011. The calculations of groundwater recharge with hydrologic budget method for the observation period showed an approximately 15% decline in groundwater recharge in the basin. Thus, the combined impacts of climate change and excessive groundwater pumping, due to increasing water demand, have caused a significant decline in groundwater levels. Consequently, the proper management of the groundwater resources threatened by climate change requires effective governance to both mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of sustainable integrated water management policies.     

Climate change and groundwater conditions in the Mekong Region–A review

Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

大安市地下水动态变化趋势及驱动因素研究

为研究大安市地下水位的变化特征及其主要控制因素,根据大安市气候因素、引水灌溉水量、地下水开采和地下水埋深等数据资料,分析了环境因素的变化规律及趋势,基于suffer软件利用克里格方法对地下水埋深进行插值,分析其时空演变规律及驱动因素。结果表明,降水量呈波动增加的趋势,平均年降水量增量为0.249mm/a;蒸发量呈波动下降的趋势,平均年蒸发量增量为-2.063mm/a;引水灌溉水量呈增加趋势,平均年灌溉水量增量为0.212×108m/a。潜水埋深呈小幅度减小趋势,年均倾斜率为-0.023m/a,承压水埋深呈波动上升趋势,年均倾斜率为0.146m/a。承压水动态变化的驱动因子由大到小依次为人工开采(主要是农业开采与生活用水)、引水灌溉、降水、蒸发,农业开采是最主要的影响因子。研究结果可为制定完善的水资源调控方案提供理论依据。     

北京市平原区地下水更新能力变化的动态均衡证据

对北京市地下水更新能力的时空变化进行分析,为地下水资源管理提供依据。用地下水动态均衡法对北京市平原区地下水,尤其是开采层地下水的补给量、更新周期、更新速率和补给速率等参数做了计算,进而对地下水更新能力及其时空变化做评价和分析。研究结果表明：在自然状态下,地下水更新能力总体上自山前至平原区腹地由强变弱,但总体上更新能力较强;含水层接受外来水源补给的边界条件和赋水条件良好,降水量的多寡是影响地下水更新能力的瓶颈因素;2001－2008年的地下水平均补给速率（0.28 m/a）比1981－2000年减少了35.6%,更新能力明显减弱;近些年地下水开采强度连年大于其更新能力,导致与自然状态下相比地下水位埋深平均下降幅度已达19.73 m,含水层中地下水减少量达101×10⁸ m³。以上证据表明,在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,北京市未来的地下水资源可持续供水问题十分严峻。     

Standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI)-based drought assessment in semi-arid south Texas

The coastal semi-arid region of south Texas is known for its erratic climate that fluctuates between long periods of drought and extremely wet hurricane-induced storms. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) were used in this study in conjunction with precipitation and temperature projections from two general circulation models (GCMs), namely, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre model (HCM) for two emission scenarios—A1B (~720 ppm CO₂ stabilization) and B1 (~550 ppm CO₂ stabilization) at six major urban centers of south Texas spanning five climatic zones. Both the models predict a progressively increasing aridity of the region throughout the twenty-first century. The SPI exhibits greater variability in the available moisture during the first half of the twenty-first century while the SPEI depicts a downward trend caused by increasing temperature. However, droughts during the latter half of the twenty-first century are due to both increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. These results suggest that droughts during the first half of the twenty-first century are likely caused by meteorological demands (temperature or potential evapotranspiration (PET) controlled), while those during the latter half are likely to be more critical as they curtail moisture supply to the region over large periods of time (precipitation and PET controlled). The drought effects are more pronounced for the A1B scenario than the B1 scenario and while spatial patterns are not always consistent, the effects are generally felt more strongly in the hinterlands than in coastal areas. The projected increased warming of the region, along with potential decreases in precipitation, points toward increased reliance on groundwater resources which are noted to be a buffer against droughts. However, there is a need for human adaptation to climate change, a greater commitment to groundwater conservation and development of large-scale regional aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facilities that are capable of long-term storage in order to sustain groundwater availability. Groundwater resource managers and planners must confront the possibility of an increased potential for prolonged (multi-year) droughts and develop innovative strategies that effectively integrate water augmentation technologies and conservation-oriented policies to ensure the sustainability of aquifer resources well into the next century.