龙门山断层破裂的频率非平稳特性

为研究地震过程中的频率非平稳特性,对近年来龙门山断层发生的两次大地震:汶川大地震和芦山大地震的近断层地震记录进行频谱分析。结果表明:相对于芦山地震有较大走向滑动分量的汶川地震,大多数位于汶川地震断层滑动前方的台站接收到更高的频率成分,位于断层滑动后方的台站接收到的地震波频率较低;尽管芦山地震断层相对汶川地震有较小的走向滑动分量,但仍然可以得出与汶川地震相同的结论,不同的是虽然芦山地震沿断层面向上方向分量大,但是其同一台站东西、南北、竖直三方向分量记录幅值相当。把芦山地震三分量记录变换到走向和沿断层面向上方向,证实了沿断层面向上方向高频成分更丰富。在断层滑动前方接收到的地震波频率较高,在断层滑动后方接收到的频率较低,这正是多普勒效应影响的结果。由于多普勒效应的客观存在,其对频率非平稳特性的影响与震源、传播路径和场地效应一样具有普遍性;所以,工程场地接收到的地震波的频率不仅取决于震源、传播路径、场地效应,还取决于断层滑动速度(多普勒效应)。     

活断层的地震响应特征与瞬时地震属性

活断层探测是断层活动性评判的基础,也是天然地震灾害预防的依据,而浅层地震勘探是活断层探测的有效方法之一;而目前利用浅层地震方法评判断层活动性的能力亟待提高.通过构建了不同宽度破碎带的活断层理论模型,采用二维粘弹性波动方程有限差分法进行了波场响应特征模拟,运用希尔伯特变换方法提取了瞬时频率和相位属性.结果表明:地震水平叠加剖面和瞬时属性相结合可有效获取穿过第四系活断层的响应特征和实现断层活动性评判;当相干噪声达到30%时,水平叠加和瞬时频率属性剖面已难以追踪第四系中弱反射信号,而瞬时相位属性剖面仍可有效追踪;在实际活断层判定中,水平叠加、瞬时频率与瞬时相位地震属性剖面均可判断断层的存在,而穿过第四系的断层 (或破碎带) 特征瞬时相位属性最为明显和突出,水平叠加剖面次之,瞬时相位地震属性是判定断层活动性的重要和有效的属性.      

小尺度断层定量预测及对注水开发的影响——以渤中34油田为例

大尺度断层往往控制了沉积盆地的形成和油气成藏,而小尺度断层则影响着注水开发效果和剩余油分布.大尺度断层可以通过二维或三维地震资料识别,而小尺度断层的识别则特别困难.本文提出了一种基于断层分形生长模式和三维地质力学模拟相结合来确定小尺度断层的数量、发育位置和方位的方法,并根据油田开发动态资料来确定小尺度断层对注水开发和剩余油分布的影响.将地震上识别的大尺度断层引入到三维数值力学模型中,模拟大尺度断层形成时期断裂带附近的应力扰动作用,然后结合破裂准则来建立最易发生破裂的方位和最大库伦剪切应力网格,以这两套网格和断层尺度的幂律分布确定的小尺度断层数量为约束条件来确定随机模型,对小尺度断层的密度、产状和发育位置进行定量预测.研究表明:利用分形理论和三维地质力学模拟可以对大尺度断层伴生小尺度断层进行有效预测;小尺度断层对注水开发效果和剩余油分布的影响取决于小尺度断层的规模(断距)以及小尺度断层方位和注采方向的关系.     

第四纪断层上断裂活动的群集及迁移现象

对许多第四纪断层上形成地表破裂的巨大滑动事件及错动位移状况的具体研究表明,在不同时间段它们的数量和强度是变化的,不均匀的。这种断层活动的不均匀性主要表现在两个方面:一是滑动事件的发生往往集中于一定的地段和一定的时间段,并与相对平静的阶段相交替,即所谓断裂活动的群集性;另一方面的表现是集中发生滑动事件段落(或区域)在空间上的迁移变化。这是中国大陆内部第四纪断层活动所表现出的主要特征之一。这方面的实例可见于许多活断层上。如沿郯庐断层、鲜水河断层以及河西走廊断裂带、阿尔金断裂带等。深入研究第四纪断层活动的这一不均匀特性对正确评估活断层的活动程度和潜在地震危险性具有实际应用意义。     

应用于评价活动断层的地震方法技术

以在上海市区开展地震调查深埋活断层的实例,讨论了在都市区强干扰条件下开展断层活动性调查的地震方法技术。认为：在对基岩断层的活动性评价中,反射纵波法根据基岩断层是否向上延伸到第四纪Ｑ３地层内,而剪切波分裂法则根据由Ｑ３地层内界面反射横波确定的各向异性。当基岩断层向第四系延伸幅度较大,即第四纪地层内断层落差较大时,可采用反射纵波法;当基岩断层活动引起的第四纪地层内的断层落差较小,反射纵波法不能对其分辨时,可采用剪切波分裂法     

广西凌云-凤山"6·28"震群: 岩溶发育区流体触发断层浅层活动机理

2010年6月28日, 广西凌云-凤山地区在特大强降雨活动之后发生密集的浅源低震级地震活动, 造成严重经济损失.该震群活动是否与强降雨有关, 强降雨是否可以触发震群活动, 仍存在争议.基于该地区地震构造背景, 对震群的活动特征、震源机制解及其与断裂构造的关系进行了分析, 并建立了断层内流体孔隙压力触发断层滑动的力学模型.该浅层震群活动的发生时间、震中位置和活动频次均与特大强降雨具有密切的相关性.认为岩溶地区长期干旱和地下水缺乏有利于地壳浅层的应力积累.地表流体很难通过下渗扩散触发断层的完全解锁和深部滑动, 但岩溶裂隙和管道有利于地表流体快速汇聚下渗, 引起断层浅层强度的弱化, 导致断层部分解锁滑动.并在断层附近形成局部应力场异常和离散的封闭性超压流体, 触发密集的浅层低震级震群活动.      

2008年3月21日新疆于田7.1级地震近断层破坏作用

2008年3月21日新疆于田7.1级地震发生在青藏高原北缘东昆仑山、西昆仑山和阿尔金山交汇的地区。文中介绍了此次地震的近断层破坏作用。此次地震在阿尔金断裂西端近南北向谷地海拔4 900~5 600 m东坡形成了近31 km长的地震地表破裂带。破裂带主要显示正断层滑动性质,其总体走向近南北,但局部追索北北西和北北东向共轭断裂发育,走向变化很大。受地形及滑塌作用影响,断裂陡坎高度最大可达20 m,垂直位移为2 m左右,最大水平拉张量也接近1.8 m,此外局部还存在近1 m的左旋位移。沿断裂发育一个近10 hm2的滑坡体,以及大量中小规模的滑坡、崩塌,多为冰碛物、洪积物及残坡积物等松散堆积。虽位于陡峭的山坡上,也未见大规模基岩崩塌、滑坡。通过平地上巨石的翻滚推测,断层附近的最大加速度峰值可达1 g。同时根据不同坡度的边坡崩塌和滚石发育程度估算出距离断层不同距离地区的地震震动峰值加速度。地裂缝分布范围较宽,距断层1 km的地区仍可见到长度超过100 m的地裂缝。这些地裂缝可能是地震震动、谷地边坡变形及旁支断层地震触发滑动的综合产物。极震区最大烈度估计可达Ⅹ度,综合各方面资料文章提供了该次地震Ⅸ度、Ⅷ度、和Ⅶ度等震线;长轴方向呈NNESSW向,与余震方向大致一致。近断层破坏作用包括强地面运动、断层破裂带、地裂缝、滑坡、崩塌、滚石等。它们受到震级、断裂活动性质及场地条件等多因素控制。     

1988年耿马地震断层几何结构,位移及力学性质

地震断层几何结构及位移分布特征,是地震断层研究的重要内容,对认识发震断层的破裂方式和过程、震源破坏机制和现代地壳应力及地壳运动状况具有实际意义。耿马7.2级地震(微观震中:Nф23°23′;Eλ99°36′;震源深度8km)形成的地震断层规模大,线性特征清晰醒目,长约18km,为地震断层研究提供了宝贵信息。笔者对该断层各段共实测并绘制平面形态图近2000m,发现该地震断层由NW向主地震断层和多组不同方     

近断层速度脉冲地震动引起的边坡永久位移预测模型

基于小波分析方法,从NGA数据库的3 551条地震记录中选取189条速度脉冲地震动,地震动均转换成发生最强脉冲的方向。基于Newmark方法,分析了近断层速度脉冲地震动作用引起的边坡永久位移值。结果表明：近断层速度脉冲地震动对边坡产生特殊的破坏作用,表现在滑动位移值大、滑动体破坏力强等方面;边坡永久位移值与速度脉冲地震动的峰值速度具有高度相关性,位移值较大时尤为明显。建立了基于单变量形式的峰值速度及双变量形式的峰值速度、峰值加速度两种边坡永久位移预测模型,模型简单实用,与回归数据具有很好的相关性,前者更适用于预测对实际工程影响较大的永久位移值,且离散性较小。提出的预测模型为考虑近断层地震动速度脉冲特性影响的边坡永久位移值的概率地震灾害分析提供了基础。     

基于间接边界元法的近断层沉积谷地地震动模拟

将间接边界元方法拓展到近断层复杂场地地震动模拟求解,通过建立有限断层二维运动学模型,量化分析了走滑型断层逐次破裂错动下近场沉积谷地地震动放大效应。首先,将断层上、下盘以及沉积谷地分为不同的计算域;其次,在频域内通过利用不同交界面的应力、位移边界条件来建立边界积分方程,离散求解得到虚拟荷载密度,进而得到频域内场地的地震反应,时域结果由傅里叶变换得到;然后,通过与解析解对比验证了该方法的准确性;最后,分析了近断层沉积谷地地震动放大规律;研究了断层上界埋深、断层倾角、沉积谷地断层距以及断层单元的破裂速度等参数变化对场地地震反应的影响。结果表明:沉积谷地对近断层地震动幅值具有明显的放大效应,所分析模型加速度反应谱峰值可放大4.64倍;在沉积谷地内部,地震动持时明显延长,同时会出现幅值更大的长周期速度大脉冲;近断层地震动震害具有典型的集中效应,断层距增大10 km,半空间地表位移衰减大于50%。为近断层复杂场地地震动模拟提供了一种新的有效方法,对近断层复杂场地地震区划和工程结构抗震设计具有重要意义。     

基于复合方法的天水盆地宽频带地震动模拟

本文采用有限差分和随机振动合成结合的复合方法,模拟了当礼县—罗家堡断裂发生矩震级Mw7.7级大地震时,在天水盆地产生的宽频带地震动场,分析了在设定地震条件下盆地内的地震动分布特征,为该区黄土地震滑坡分析提供了地震动参数结果。结果显示:(1)有限差分法和随机振动合成法可以很好地互补,得到盆地内地表宽频带地震动;(2)地震在盆地区域产生了强烈地震动,PGA(峰值加速度)介于150~900 gal,离断层较近的区域东南角的PGA最大,随着断层距的增加,PGA逐渐减小。河谷南侧的PGA值相比北侧较大,具备诱发滑坡的强大动力条件;(3)盆地区域PGV(峰值速度)最大为120 cm/s。受第四系覆盖层放大效应和地形放大效应共同影响,水平向地震动在盆地区域东侧和中部具有较大PGV,而西侧PGV相对较小。竖向地震动在盆地区域东侧较弱,而在中部和西侧较强,特别是最西侧陡峭的山坡上,PGV达到了最大值。此外,竖向地震动明显受到覆盖层厚度的影响,譬如在盆地区域南侧的中间部位,也具有较大的PGV。     

Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement as response of finite elastic media

The strong motion displacement records available during an earthquake can be treated as the response of the earth as the a structural system to unknown forces acting at unknown locations. Thus, if the part of the earth participating in ground motion is modelled as a known finite elastic medium, one can attempt to model the source location and forces generated during an earthquake as an inverse problem in structural dynamics. Based on this analogy, a simple model for the basic earthquake source is proposed. The unknown source is assumed to be a sequence of impulses acting at locations yet to be found. These unknown impulses and their locations are found using the normal mode expansion along with a minimization of mean square error. The medium is assumed to be finite, elastic, homogeneous, layered and horizontal with a specific set of boundary conditions. Detailed results are obtained for Uttarkashi earthquake. The impulse locations exhibit a linear structure closely associated with the causative fault. The results obtained are shown to be in good agreement with reported values. The proposed engineering model is then used to simulate the acceleration time histories at a few recording stations. The earthquake source in terms of a sequence of impulses acting at different locations is applied on a 2D finite elastic medium and acceleration time histories are found using finite element methods. The synthetic accelerations obtained are in close match with the recorded accelerations.     

Generation of stochastic earthquake ground motion in western Saudi Arabia as a first step in development of regional ground motion prediction model

Earthquake ground motion model is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment. The model consists in several empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are considered to be applicable to the given region. When the recorded ground motion data are scarce, numerical modeling of ground motion based on available seismological information is widely used. We describe results of stochastic simulation of ground motion acceleration records for western Saudi Arabia. The simulation was performed using the finite fault model and considering peak ground acceleration and amplitudes of spectral acceleration at natural frequencies 0.2 and 1.0 s. Based on the parameters of the input seismological model that were accepted in similar previous studies, we analyze influence of variations in the source factor (stress drop) and in the local attenuation and amplification factors (kappa value, crustal amplification). These characteristics of the model are considered as the major contributors to the ground motion variability. The results of our work show that distribution of simulated ground motion parameters versus magnitude and distance reveals an agreement with the GMPEs recently used in seismic hazard assessment for the region. Collection of credible information about seismic source, propagation path, and site attenuation parameters using the regional ground motion database would allow constraining the seismological model and developing regional GMPEs. The stochastic simulation based on regional seismological model may be applied for generation of ground motion time histories used for development of analytical fragility curves for typical constructions in the region.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Bangalore Region

Indian peninsular shield, which was once considered to be seismically stable, is experiencing many earthquakes recently. As part of the national level microzonation programme, Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India has initiated microzonation of greater Bangalore region. The seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore region is carried out as part of this project. The paper presents the determination of maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and generation of synthetic acceleration time history plot for the Bangalore region. MCE has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius around Bangalore city. The seismotectonic map has been prepared by considering the faults, lineaments, shear zones in the area and historic earthquake events of more than 150 events. Shortest distance from the Bangalore to the different sources is measured and then peak ground acceleration (PGA) is calculated for the different source and moment magnitude. Maximum credible earthquake found in terms of moment magnitude is 5.1 with PGA value of 0.146 g at city centre with assuming the hypo central distance of 15.88 km from the focal point. Also, correlations for the fault length with historic earthquake in terms of moment magnitude, yields (taking the rupture fault length as 5% of the total fault length) a PGA value of 0.159 g. Acceleration time history (ground motion) and a response acceleration spectrum for the corresponding magnitude has been generated using synthetic earthquake model considering the regional seismotectonic parameters. The maximum spectral acceleration obtained is 0.332 g for predominant period of 0.06 s. The PGA value and synthetic earthquake ground motion data from the identified vulnerable source using seismotectonic map will be useful for the PGA mapping and microzonation of the area.     

沙牌坝址基岩场地地震动输入参数研究

重大水利水电工程地震动输入参数必须根据专门的地震危险性分析结果来确定。目前由地震危险性分析得到的一致概率反应谱具有包络的意义,不能反映实际地震的频谱特性,输入“一致概率反应谱”可能导致地震作用偏大;拟合设计反应谱人工生成地震动加速度时程的频率非平稳性也没有得到很好解决。为了解决这些问题,得到与坝址地震危险性一致、具体地震的输入参数,结合沙牌大坝提出了一套适用于重大水利水电工程基岩场地地震动输入参数确定方法：通过以有效峰值加速度为参数的概率地震危险性计算分析,确定坝址不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度及对坝址贡献最大的潜在震源区;在最大贡献潜在震源内利用震级空间联合分布概率最大法确定坝址设定地震,依据加速度反应谱衰减关系确定与坝址设定地震对应的设计反应谱;根据设定地震结果和时变功率谱模型参数衰减关系确定时变功率谱,将时变功率谱和最小相位谱按三角级数叠加法进行强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程合成。在对沙牌坝址区域的地震活动性及地震构造环境分析评价的基础上,采用上述方法,得到了坝址基岩场地不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度、设计反应谱、强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程等地震动输入参数。     

Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)

Ground motion intensity parameters of past and potential earthquakes are required for a range of purposes including earthquake insurance practice. In regions with no or sparse earthquake recordings, most of the available methods generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases where full ground motion time histories are required, simulations that consider fault rupture processes become necessary. In this study, a major novel use of simulated ground motions is presented in insurance premium calculations which also require ground motion intensity measures that are not always available through observations. For this purpose, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated using stochastic finite-fault simulation method with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motions, input parameters are derived from regional data. Regional model parameters are verified by comparisons against the observations as well as ground motion prediction equations. Next, a potential large magnitude event in Bursa is simulated. Distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters, the corresponding Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are estimated. Later, these MMIs are used as the main ground motion parameter in damage probability matrices (DPM). Return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained from the previous regional seismic hazard studies. Finally, insurance rates for Bursa region are determined with implementation of two new approaches in the literature. The probability of the scenario event and the expected mean damage ratios (MDR) from the corresponding DPMs are used, and the results are compared to Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) rates. Results show that insurance premiums can be effectively computed using simulated ground motions in the absence of real data.     

Acceleration response spectra for the earthquakes of the southwestern flank of the Baikal Rift Zone

The acceleration response spectra of earthquakes with M = 4–6.5 in the southwestern part of the Baikal Rift Zone have been studied. The absorption properties of the medium and the attenuation of seismic signals in the study area were determined. Average acceleration response spectra were obtained for regional earthquakes. A comparative analysis of the acceleration response spectra was made for earthquake focal mechanisms with different senses of motion: reverse fault, reverse slip, strike slip, and oblique slip. The effect of the sense of fault motion in the seismic source on acceleration response spectra was determined.     

中国活动构造研究的进展与展望

本文试图在世界活动构造研究背景下概括中国活动构造研究的进展，并对最近20年来中国的活动构造研究，包括几何学、滑动速率、古地震和大震重复间隔、分段理论和应用、活动褶皱、深浅构造耦合关系、城市和海域活动构造探测、块体划分和块体运动、地震危险性的未来断裂滑动量评价及中国现代构造活动动力学等进行简要评述，对今后在这些方面的发展进行概略的讨论。