Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h⁻¹, can cause serious damage, particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate. A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category 5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North American continent.

     

The effects of precipitation schemes and horizontal resolution on the major rainband in typhoon Flo (1990) predicted by the MRI mesoscale nonhydrostatic model

Summary ?This paper describes a numerical study of the major spiral rainband in typhoon Flo (1990) using the Meteorological Research Institute Mesoscale Nonhydrostatic Model (MRI-NHM). The effects of precipitation schemes and horizontal resolution on the representation of the simulated rainband are discussed. Dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the simulated major rainband to the north of the storm center are well represented in the model with a 5 km horizontal resolution. The structures are consistent with observational results reported for other tropical cyclones. Among the realistic features are: a cold pool and convergence on the inner side of the band; convergence above low-level inflow layers; and the outward slope of the updraft with height. The band is caused by the motion of the storm through its surroundings where horizontal wind has vertical shear. The simulation of the structure and precipitation pattern associated with the major rainband depends on the precipitation scheme rather than the horizontal resolution. The band appears more realistic when using explicit cloud microphysics as a precipitation scheme, rather than moist convective adjustment. This result is attributable to the difference in scheme triggering. In the simulation with moist convective adjustment, the elimination of vertical instability in low-level atmosphere is excessive, suppressing band formation. The overall structure of the band is also more realistic in the simulation using explicit cloud microphysics, because a cold pool exists in the lower layers and the vertical axis of upward flow tilts outward. This result suggests that prediction will partly depend on variables associated with cloud microphysics, such as the mixing ratio of cloud water. The horizontal grid distance, which varied between 5 and 20 km, quantitatively influenced the rainfall amount, although the large-scale band structure remained unchanged. The rainfall amount increased as the grid interval was reduced from 20 to 10-km but decreased as the interval was further reduced from 10 to 5 km. Received March 20, 2001; revised August 20, 2001     

0302号(鲸鱼)台风降水和水粒子空间分布的三维结构特征

由于缺乏关于台风结构信息的高分辨率资料,即探测台风云系内部结构特征的技术限制,造成了进一步理解台风的动力传送特征的困难.作者用热带测雨卫星(TRMM,Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)的测雨雷达(PR,Precipitation Radar)和TRMM微波图像仪(TMI,TRMM Microwave Imager)资料详细研究了"鲸鱼"台风(0302号)于2003年4月16日1105 UTC的降水和降水云系中各种水粒子的三维结构特征.通过分析发现该时刻:(1)台风降水中大部分区域为层性降水(占总降水面积的85.5%),对流性降水占总降水面积的13.1%,但对流性降水的贡献却达到41.8%,所以,虽然对流性降水所占面积比例很少,但是它对总降水量的贡献却很大.(2)60%降水主要集中在距离台风中心100 km以内的区域,约占总降水量的60%.(3)各种水粒子含量随着与台风中心距离的增加而减少.降水云系中水粒子最大含量出现高度与水粒子的种类和与台风中心的距离有关.最后,分析了台风降水和降水云系中三维分布的成因.     

MRI模式对华南春雨气候态及年际变率的模拟：不同模式分辨率的比较

本文利用日本气象研究所（MRI）参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的大气环流模式在高、中、低三种分辨率下的AMIP试验结果,评估了其对华南春雨气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,比较了不同分辨率的模拟结果。结果表明,三种不同水平分辨率（120 km、60 km和20 km）的模式均能再现北半球春季位于中国东南部的降水中心。相较于120 km模式,20 km模式能够更为合理地模拟出华南春雨位于南岭—武夷山脉的降水中心。水汽收支分析表明,60 km、20 km模式高估了水汽辐合,使得华南春雨的降水强度被高估。在年际变率方面,在三种分辨率下,模式均能较好地再现观测中El Ni?o衰减年春季的西北太平洋反气旋以及华南春雨降水正异常。较之120 km模式,60 km、20 km模式模拟的降水正异常的空间分布和强度更接近观测,原因是后者模拟的El Ni?o衰减年春季华南地区的水平水汽平流异常更接近观测。本研究表明,发展高分辨率气候模式是提高华南春雨的气候态和年际变率模拟水平的有效途径之一。     

Cloud climate investigations in the Nordic region using NOAA AVHRR data

Summary A method to estimate monthly cloud conditions (monthly cloud frequencies) from multispectral satellite imagery is described. The operational cloud classification scheme SCANDIA (the SMHI Cloud ANalysis model using DIgital AVHRR data), based on high resolution imagery from the polar orbiting NOAA-satellites, has been used to produce monthly cloud frequencies for the entire year of 1993 and some additional months in 1991, 1992, 1994 and 1995. Cloud analyses were made for an area covering the Nordic countries with a horizontal resolution of four km. Examples of seasonal, monthly and diurnal variation in cloud conditions are given and an annual mean for 1993 is presented.Comparisons with existing surface observations showed very good agreement for horizontal cloud distributions but approximately 5% smaller cloud amounts were found in the satellite estimations. The most evident problems were encountered in the winter season due to difficulties in identifying low-level cloudiness at very low sun elevations. The underestimation in the summer season was partly fictious and caused by the overestimation of convective cloud cover by surface observers.SCANDIA results were compared to ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) cloud climatologies for two selected months in 1991 and 1992. ISCCP cloudiness was indicated to be higher, especially during the month with anticyclonic conditions where a cloudiness excess of more than 10% were found. The regional variation of cloud conditions in the area was found to be inadequately described by ISCCP cloud climatologies. An improvement of the horizontal resolution of ISCCP data seems necessary to enable use for regional applications.The SCANDIA model is proposed as a valuable tool for local and regional monitoring of the cloud climatology at high latitudes. More extensive comparisons with ISCCP cloud climatologies are suggested as well as comparisons with modelled cloudiness from atmospheric general circulation models and climate models. Special studies of cloud conditions in the Polar areas are also proposed.With 14 Figures     

The impact of Global Positioning System data on the prediction of an extratropical cyclone: an observing system simulation experiment

In this paper, we report a series of observing system simulation experiments that we conducted to assess the potential impact of Global Positioning System/meteorology (GPS/MET) refractivity data on short-range numerical weather prediction. We first conducted a control experiment using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 at 90-km resolution on an extratropical cyclone known as the ERICA (Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic) IOP 4 storm. The results from the control experiment were then used to simulate GPS/MET refractivity observations with different spatial resolution and measurement characteristics. The simulated refractivity observations were assimilated into an 180-km model during a 6-h period, which was followed by a 48-h forecast integration. Key findings can be summarized as follows:

• The assimilation of refractivity data at the 180-km resolution can recover important atmospheric structures in temperature and moisture fields both in the upper and lower troposphere, and, through the internal model dynamical processes, also the wind fields. The assimilation of refractivity data led to a considerably more accurate prediction of the cyclone.

• Distributing the refractivity randomly in space and applying a line averaging did not alter the results significantly, while reducing the spatial resolution from 180 km to 360 km produced a moderately degraded result. Even at the 360-km resolution, the GPS-type refractivity data still have a notable positive impact on cyclone prediction.

• Restricting the refractivity data to altitude 3 km and above considerably degraded its impact on cyclone prediction. This degradation was greater than the combined effects of distributing the refractivity data randomly, performing line averaging, and reducing the resolution to 360 km.

These results showed that the GPS/MET refractivity data is likely to have a significant impact on short-range operational numerical weather prediction. The random distribution and line averaging associated with the inherent GPS occultation do not pose a problem for effective assimilation. On the other hand, these results also argue that we need to improve the GPS/MET retrieval algorithm in order to recover useful data in the lower troposphere, and to increase the number of low-earth-orbiting satellites carrying GPS receivers in order to increase the density of GPS soundings, so that the potential impact of GPS/MET refractivity data on numerical weather prediction can be fully realized.     

Organization of tropical convection in a GCM with varying vertical resolution; implications for the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

 Experiments using a GCM with two different vertical resolutions show differences in the amount of variability in the tropical upper tropospheric zonal wind component associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The GCM with lower vertical resolution shows very little variability in this quantity whereas when the vertical resolution is doubled in the free troposphere, the GCM produces variability which is of the same strength as observations. However, the eastward propagation of an enhanced convective region from the Indian Ocean into the west Pacific is not well represented in either simulation of this atmospheric GCM. A water-covered or “aqua-planet” version of the same GCM is used to investigate the behaviour of tropical convection when the vertical resolution is doubled. When the vertical resolution is increased, the spectrum of tropical cloud types changes from a bimodal distribution with peaks representing shallow cumulus and deep cumulonimbus clouds to a trimodal distribution with a third peak in mid-troposphere near the melting level. Associated with periods when these mid-level congestus clouds are dominant, the detrainment from these clouds significantly moistens the mid-troposphere. The appearance of these congestus clouds is shown to be partly due to improved resolution of the freezing level and the convective processes occurring at this level. However, due to the way in which convective detrainment is parametrized in this model, the vertical profile becomes rather noisy and this too contributes to the change in the nature of the convective clouds. The resulting cloud distribution more closely resembles observations, particularly during the suppressed phase of the MJO when cumulus congestus is the dominant cloud type. Received: 17 April 2000 / Accepted: 30 November 2000     

Alpine cloud climatology using long-term NOAA-AVHRR satellite data

Summary  Three different climates have been identified by our evaluation of AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data using APOLLO (AVHRR Processing scheme Over Land, Clouds and Ocean) for a five-years cloud climatology of the Alpine region. The cloud cover data from four layers were spatially averaged in boxes of 15 km by 14 km. The study area only covers 540 km by 560 km, but contains regions with moderate, Alpine and Mediterranean climate. Data from the period July 1989 until December 1996 have been considered. The temporal resolution is one scene per day, the early afternoon pass, yielding monthly means of satellite derived cloud coverages 5% to 10% above the daily mean compared to conventional surface observation. At non-vegetated sites the cloudiness is sometimes significantly overestimated. Averaging high resolution cloud data seems to be superior to low resolution measurements of cloud properties and averaging is favourable in topographical homogeneous regions only. The annual course of cloud cover reveals typical regional features as foehn or temporal singularities as the so-called Christmas thaw. The cloud cover maps in spatially high resolution show local luff/lee features which outline the orography. Less cloud cover is found over the Alps than over the forelands in winter, an accumulation of thick cirrus is found over the High Alps and an accumulation of thin cirrus north of the Alps. Received December 17, 1999 Revised July 18, 2000     

Numerical investigation of an extreme storm with the Canadian Regional Climate Model: the case study of windstorm VIVIAN, Switzerland, February 27, 1990

 The windstorm VIVIAN that severely affected Switzerland in February 1990 has been investigated using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). This winter storm was characterised by a deep cyclone in the North Atlantic and by strong geopotential and baroclinic north-south gradients in the troposphere over Western Europe resulting in high windspeeds in Switzerland. Our principal emphasis is to demonstrate the ability of the CRCM to simulate the windfield intensity and patterns. In order to simulate winds at very high resolution we operate an optimal multiple self-nesting with the CRCM in order to increase the horizontal and vertical resolution. The simulation starts with downscaling NCEP-NCAR reanalyses at 60 km with 20 vertical levels, followed by an intermediate 5-km simulation with 30 vertical levels nested in the former. The 5-km output is in a final phase used for initial and lateral conditions for a 1-km resolution simulation with 46 vertical levels. The multiple self-nesting in the horizontal is necessary to reach sufficient resolution to better capture the orographic forcing that modulates the atmospheric circulation at fine scales, whereas the vertical resolution enhancement helps to better simulate the boundary layer that modulates the windspeed along the surface and better represents the atmospheric circulation with a complex vertical structure (low-level jets, gravity waves and frontal features). It has also been found that the simulated temporal variability of the windfield and of most variables at the finer scales increases with the increasing nesting frequency. This indicates that as we progress towards finer scales in the horizontal, the vertical and the nesting frequency enhancement helps to simulate windspeed variability. However, the variability within the larger domain is limited by the archival frequency of reanalysis data that cannot resolve disturbances with time scale shorter than 12 h. Results show that while the model simulates well the synoptic-scale flow at 60-km resolution, cascade self-nesting is necessary to capture fine-scale features of the topography that modulate the flow that generate localised wind enhancement over Switzerland. Received: 6 July 2000 / Accepted: 13 February 2001     

Comparison of model predicted cloud parameters and surface radiative fluxes with observations on the 100 km scale

Summary Cloud parameters and surface radiative fluxes predicted by regional atmospheric models are directly compared with observations for a 10-day period in late summer 1995 characterized by predominantly large-scale synoptic conditions. Observations of total cloud cover and vertical cloud structure are inferred from measurements with a ground-based network of Lidar ceilometers and IR-radiometers and from satellite observations on a 100 kilometer scale. Ground-based observations show that at altitudes below 3 km, implying liquid water clouds, there is a considerable portion of optically non-opaque clouds. Vertical distributions of cloud temperatures simultaneously inferred from the ground-based infrared radiometer network and from satellite can only be reconciled if the occurrence of optically thin cloud structures at mid- and high tropospheric levels is assumed to be frequent. Results of three regional atmospheric models, i.e. the GKSS-REMO, SMHI-HIRLAM, and KNMI-RACMO, are quantitatively compared with the observations. The main finding is that all models predict too much cloud amount at low altitude below 900 hPa, which is then compensated by an underestimation of cloud amount around 800 hPa. This is likely to be related with the finding that all models tend to underestimate the planetary boundary layer height. All models overpredict the high-level cloud amount albeit it is difficult to quantify to what extent due to the frequent presence of optically thin clouds. Whereas reasonably alike in cloud parameters, the models differ considerably in radiative fluxes. One model links a well matching incoming solar radiation to a radiatively transparent atmosphere over a too cool surface, another model underpredicts incoming solar radiation at the surface due to a too strong cloud feedback to radiation, the last model represents all surface radiative fluxes quite well on average, but underestimates the sensitivity of atmospheric transmissivity to cloud amount. Received August 31, 2000 Revised March 15, 2001     

不同降水方案对"03.7"一次暴雨过程模拟的影响

观测和数值模拟研究已经表明,潜热释放对中国东部夏季梅雨锋系统及其锋面降水的维持和发展发挥着非常重要的作用.然而,目前对于梅雨锋降水模拟中各种降水方案的相互协调和系统评估方面的工作仍不多见,为了增进对梅雨锋暴雨模拟中降水过程的认识,作者针对2003年7月4～5日一次梅雨锋暴雨过程,构造了四组试验,利用MM5模式考察了两种分辨率(36 km、12 km),各种隐/显式方案搭配下,对所生成的雨带、雨量和降水类型的配置进行了仔细的研究,得到了一些有意义的结论,为今后更好地使用模式、利用数值模式来认识中尺度降水过程中的气象问题打下基础.主要结论包括:模拟总降水的水平分布和强度,以及显式降水和隐式降水的划分对积云参数化方案的选择非常敏感.但对特定积云参数化方案而言,降水的模拟对36 km、12 km水平分辨率不敏感(除Betts-Miller方案外);在中尺度网格分辨率10～50 km范围内,不同积云参数化方案对梅雨锋降水分布和降水量模拟的影响比不同显式方案带来的变化大得多.     

近20年全球总云量变化趋势分析

利用ISCCP月平均云气候资料集的总云量资料, 采用趋势分析的方法, 得到1983年7月至2001年9月近20年来全球平均总云量的变化趋势, 并分析云量变化的可能原因。近20年全球增温幅度加快, 研究这期间云的变化, 对气候研究和模拟具有重要的意义。结果表明:平均大气环流决定总云量的分布;全球平均总云量的变化趋势在20世纪80年代末发生逆转, 即由增加转为减少;全球平均云量呈减少的变化趋势, 2000年与1987年相比, 减少量约占平均总云量的4%;从地理位置上看, 云量的变化存在区域性差异, 热带和中纬度地区的总云量减少较多, 高纬度地区云量略有增加, 其中南极大陆云量增加较多。     

An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to ?90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to ?8?K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon—which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem.     

A numerical study of atmospheric pollution over complex terrain in Switzerland

A pollution-related study has been carried out for the Swiss city of Bienne that is located in complex terrain at the foot of the Jura mountains. The study consists of an analysis of pollutant transport and dispersion from various emittors located in the city, using a coupled system of mesoscale and micro-scale atmospheric numerical models. Simulations of atmospheric flow with the mesoscale model over a 20 × 20 km domain (horizontal resolution: 500 m; vertical resolution: 250 m) are used to initialize a microscale model centered over the city. The domain of this latter model is 4 × 4 km (horizontal resolution: 100 m; vertical resolution: 10 m). Plume trajectories are computed in the micro-scale model, and are a function of the regional-scale flow field previously calculated by the mesoscale model. Results show that the flow — and hence the plume trajectories embedded within this motion field — an sensitive not only to channeling effects by the local valley systems, but also to local or regional meteorological effects resulting from cloud activity, urban heat island, and the direction of the synoptic scale flow with respect to the orientation of the Jura mointains.     

赤道不稳定波海气相互作用的数值模拟分析

赤道不稳定波(tropical instability waves)存在于热带东太平洋赤道附近, 通常于每年的春末夏初出现, 以约0.6 m/s速度向西传播, 波周期为20～40天左右, 波长约为1000～2000 km。本文利用一个全球高分辨率海气耦合模式对赤道不稳定波在赤道附近的热量输送进行分析, 表明赤道不稳定波产生指向赤道的热通量, 从而部分抵消了热带东太平洋地区由Ekman辐散和温度平流导致的强冷却效应, 维持热带地区的热量平衡。其对赤道冷舌区的增暖作用可以消除和减弱气候模式中热带东太平洋地区的系统性冷偏差, 能使冷舌的强度和分布得到合理的改善, 对气候模式的改进和发展具有潜在贡献。赤道不稳定波还可以改变赤道海洋上空低层大气层结稳定度, 导致近地层强的风场辐合辐散, 并进一步影响大气混合层的温度、 风场等气象要素。模拟分析结果还表明, 赤道不稳定波对大气强迫产生二次响应, 改变赤道上空逆温层的垂直位移和逆温强度。研究赤道不稳定波对热带海洋气候及其海气相互作用机理的理解具有重要意义。     

An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization

Predicting tropical cyclone(TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific(AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions.     

Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?

Three different resolution (50, 12, and 1.5 km) regional climate model simulations are compared in terms of their ability to simulate moderate and high daily precipitation events over the southern United Kingdom. The convection-permitting 1.5-km simulation is carried out without convective parametrisation. As in previous studies, increasing resolution (especially from 50 to 12 km) is found to improve the representation of orographic precipitation. The 50-km simulation underestimates mean precipitation over the mountainous region of Wales, and event intensity tends to be too weak; this bias is reduced in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations for both summer and winter. In south–east England lowlands where summer extremes are mostly convective, increasing resolution does not necessary lead to an improvement in the simulation. For the 12-km simulation, simulated daily extreme events are overly intense. Even though the average intensity of summer daily extremes is improved in the 1.5-km simulation, this simulation has a poorer mean bias with too many events exceeding high thresholds. Spatial density and clustering of summer extremes in south–east England are poorly simulated in both the 12- and 1.5-km simulations. In general, we have not found any clear evidence to show that the 1.5-km simulation is superior to the 12-km simulation, or vice versa at the daily level.     

A modeling analysis of rainfall and water cycle by the cloud-resolving WRF model over the western North Pacific

Simulated regional precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, and the regional hydrologic budgets over the western North Pacific region during the period from May to June 2008 were investigated with the high-resolution （4-km grid spacing） Weather Research and Forecast （WRF v3.2.1） model with explicit cloud microphysics. The model initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy （NCEP/DOE） Reanalysis 2 data. The model precipitation results were evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 product. The results show that the WRF simulations can reason- ably reproduce the spatial distributions of daily mean precipitation and rainy days. However, the simulated frequency distributions of rainy days showed an overestimation of light precipitation, an underestimation of moderate to heavy precipitation, but a good representation of extreme precipitation. The downscaling approach was able to add value to the very heavy precipitation over the ocean since the convective processes are resolved by the high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Moreover, the water vapor budget analysis indi- cates that heavy precipitation is contributed mostly by the stronger moisture convergence; whereas, in less convective periods, the precipitation is more influenced by the surface evaporation. The simulated water vapor budgets imply the importance in the tropical monsoon region of cloud microphysics that affects the precipitation, atmospheric latent heating and, subsequently, the large-scale circulation.     

Biases in the diurnal temperature range in Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate models and their possible causes

The study examines how regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in their control simulations over Central Europe. We evaluate 30-year runs driven by perfect boundary conditions (the ERA40 reanalysis, 1961–1990) and a global climate model (ECHAM5) of an ensemble of RCMs with 25-km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project. The RCMs’ performance is compared against the dataset gridded from a high-density stations network. We find that all RCMs underestimate DTR in all seasons, notwithstanding whether driven by ERA40 or ECHAM5. Underestimation is largest in summer and smallest in winter in most RCMs. The relationship of the models’ errors to indices of atmospheric circulation and cloud cover is discussed to reveal possible causes of the biases. In all seasons and all simulations driven by ERA40 and ECHAM5, underestimation of DTR is larger under anticyclonic circulation and becomes smaller or negligible for cyclonic circulation. In summer and transition seasons, underestimation tends to be largest for the southeast to south flow associated with warm advection, while in winter it does not depend on flow direction. We show that the biases in DTR, which seem common to all examined RCMs, are also related to cloud cover simulation. However, there is no general tendency to overestimate total cloud amount under anticyclonic conditions in the RCMs, which suggests the large negative bias in DTR for anticyclonic circulation cannot be explained by a bias in cloudiness. Errors in simulating heat and moisture fluxes between land surface and atmosphere probably contribute to the biases in DTR as well.     

预估临边探测大气温度和水汽廓线的反演精度

针对在研仪器——大气辐射超高光谱探测仪的临边探测模式,模拟计算了大气温度和水汽的权重函数。以此为基础,利用信息量和权重函数线性化方法,结合仪器的可探测亮温阈值0.3 K,计算并分析6种大气状态下,大气温度和水汽混合比廓线在不同反演精度条件下可获得的光谱通道数,在满足最佳光谱通道数200的要求下,理论上预估其反演精度。温度廓线整体反演精度为0.6 K,水汽混合比廓线反演精度可达到5%,但热带大气在16~20 km高度的水汽廓线反演精度仅为10%。反演精度预估,仅提供了一种全面认识仪器性能的方法,精度的确定还有赖于真实探测数据的获取和反演方法。