基于CryoSat-2卫星测高数据分析南极海冰厚度的时空变化

利用卫星测高数据能够获取大尺度、长时序的海冰厚度信息。相较于北极,目前南极海冰厚度特别是近期变化信息仍很缺乏。基于2013-2018年的CryoSat-2卫星测高数据,采用最低点高程法和静力平衡方程模型反演了近6年逐月平均海冰厚度并分析其时空变化规律。结果表明：2013-2018年南极海冰厚度整体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,其中,2014-2017年年平均海冰厚度表现为快速变薄。南极较厚的海冰集中在威德尔海西南海域,最大值出现在该海域2014年的7月（6.27 m）。年平均海冰厚度在2017年达到最低值。南极海冰厚度的时空变化研究可为深入研究海冰变化与全球变化的关系提供参考。     

基于IceBridge数据的南极别林斯高晋海的海冰厚度研究

海冰变化与全球气候、 生态系统和人类活动密切相关, 海冰厚度是海冰变化研究的重要参数之一。全面立体高精度观测海冰厚度的最有效手段是航空遥感, 而冰桥计划（IceBridge）是当前南北极最大的航空遥感工程。基于2009 - 2014年冰桥计划的激光雷达高程数据和数字测图系统相机光学影像对南极别林斯高晋海的海冰厚度进行研究, 并结合降雪量等气象数据探讨该区域海冰厚度变化的原因。研究发现该海域的海冰厚度在2009 - 2014年间整体呈微弱增长趋势（0.07 m·a^-1）, 但是在95%置信水平下不具有显著性。2009 - 2011年呈现先增加后减少的大幅度变化, 其中2010年达到极大值2.42 m, 之后开始缓慢增加。海冰厚度的年际变化与降雪和近地表温度等气象要素相关, 二者相比较而言降雪为主要影响因素。     

南极海冰涛动及其对东亚季风和我国夏季降水的可能影响

利用NCEP 1973-2002年逐月南极海冰密集度格点资料,定义了具有跷跷板式变化规律的南极海冰涛动指数,分析了冬季南极海冰涛动指数与我国夏季降水及东亚季风爆发时间的关系.结果显示:南极海冰涛动指数与同期南极海冰密集度相关系数超过5%信度的格点数占南极海冰格点数的1/3,表明定义南极海冰涛动指数能够代表南极地区1/3海冰的变化区域.冬季南极海冰涛动指数和我国汛期(6-8月)降水距平百分比相关显著,正相关主要在长江流域及其以南地区,长江流域以北为负相关,相关系数均超过5%的信度.当冬季南极海冰涛动指数为负值时,南海季风爆发早,概率为11/14=79%;为正值时南海季风爆发晚,概率为12/15=80%.通过讨论冬季南极海冰涛动指数影响我国季风降水的可能过程,给出了概念模型.     

中国第19次南极科学考察总结

中国第19次南极科学考察将海冰走航调查列入正式项目, 为海洋调查的一部分.为此, 根据渤海海冰和内陆河冰调查技术现状和未来发展前景, 设计、组合和加工了可视技术\, 冰层厚度变化过程测试技术和温度测试记录系统.     

基于走航观测的夏季南极海冰分布特征分析

依托中国第19次南极科学考察,基于ASPeCt(南极海冰过程与气候)海冰走航观测方法标准,以"雪龙号"破冰船为平台进行夏季南大洋海冰走航观测.在2003年1月4-17日近6 500km的航程断面上,分别获取了海冰的厚度、密集度、雪厚度、浮冰尺寸等海冰分布特征参数.结果表明,海冰分布特征参数均呈现了较大的空间变化.由于夏季海冰融化并受制于特定动力过程作用,海冰在威德尔海附近聚集,密集度达到峰值,沿断面在0%～80%之间变化;在断面的大部分观测到开阔水域.沿断面海冰厚度介于10～210cm,雪厚度介于2～80 cm之间,在埃默里冰架附近冰雪厚度达到了全断面的最高值.沿断面浮冰尺寸,最小到＜10 cm到最大超过2 000 m不等.     

南极海冰异常对南半球冬春季大气环流影响的年代际变化

南极海冰异常是影响南半球大气环流变化的一个重要因素。南极海冰变率的主要模态被称为南极海冰偶极子(Antarctic Dipole, ADP),具体表现为南极半岛两侧海冰的反相变化。ADP的出现受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件的强烈影响,而过去的研究显示,厄尔尼诺在2000年后由东部型转到中部型,伴随着该转变,南极海冰的异常模态及其对南半球大气环流的影响也发生了年代际变化。通过对前期的南极海冰异常与滞后的南半球冬春季位势高度异常进行最大协方差分析,发现南半球冬季至春季持续性的正位相ADP,在1979—1999年间与南半球春季的负位相南半球环状模(Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode,SAM)显著关联,但在2000—2021年间该相关性较弱,转变为南半球秋季的三极型海冰异常与后期冬季的SAM显著相关。动力诊断证明,ADP及三极型海冰异常均能通过引发高频瞬变涡旋的变化,激发并维持SAM型大气环流异常。     

中国第19次南极科学考察中海冰调查技术介绍

介绍了第19次中国南极科学考察中海冰走航和定点调查使用的一些新技术.实践发现这些辅助技术可以提高裸眼观测的准确性, 它们同样可以应用于渤海海冰和内陆河冰的现场调查.其中可视技术、船舶雷达跟踪技术和冰层厚度变化过程测试技术应用前景宽阔, 介绍了它们的测试目标、原理、组成和运行性能.     

南极大陆东部戴维斯站地区海冰观测

1981年1—12月,笔者在南极戴维斯(Davis)站工作期间,对站区沿海海冰的形成和破裂过程以及海冰的一些物理性质作了观察,并且从3月20日至11月30日,和澳大利亚考察队员一起,测量了海冰厚度和冰下水温(每周一次)。最近笔者又查阅了南极大陆东部沿海站区有关海冰的一些资料并进行了比较。现将这些观测资料介绍于后,供我国海冰和南极研究者参考。     

南极沿岸固定冰观测与研究述评

南极固定冰的变化能够直接反映南极的局地气候变率,因此是数值模式验证的理想载体,对固定冰的观测研究结论也能用于评估南极海冰的年际变化。现今国际上对南极固定冰的观测和研究日渐丰富和深入,并逐渐形成了由多个国家参加的联合观测网。就海冰厚度、冰芯结构、表面辐射收支等现场测量和相机、卫星等遥感观测方面,总结了目前国内外南极固定冰观测的技术手段和研究进展,并分析了不同空间尺度上的南极固定冰年际变化特征。对南极固定冰观测研究目前存在的问题和未来的发展方向进行了探讨。     

ENSO循环过程与南极海冰变化

应用1951-2001年ENSO特征指数(NINO1+2、NINO3、NINO4、NINO3.4、SOI)和1973-1998年南极海冰北界范围以及1950-2001年SODA海洋温度资料,分析探讨了ENSO循环过程与南极海冰之间的关系,研究了南大洋和太平洋海表温度与南极海冰之间的内在联系。结果表明,南极海冰变化与ENSO循环过程存在一定联系,特别是东南极海冰的变化与ENSO循环过程较为密切。这种遥相关关系表明,ENSO循环过程不仅与热带海洋自身的海 气相互作用存在密切关系,而且与南极海冰之间也存在一定的联系。当东南极海冰范围出现异常增大和减小时,在时滞一年之后,NINO循环指数将出现减弱和加强,而南方涛动指数将出现加强和减弱。这种相关关系的机制是通过大洋环流这一载体将异常海温向北输送来实现的。南极海冰范围的异常增加或减少,会直接影响南极绕极流的冷暖结构进而影响经向水体输送的异常,从而导致热带和副热带太平洋上层海温场的异常变化,对ElNino和LaNina事件的发生起到推动作用。     

2003年南极威德尔海至普里兹湾之间海冰分布研究

Ship-based sea ice observation data (concentrations,ice thickness,topography and overlying snow cover) were collected from Middle Weddell Sea to Prydz Bay,Antarctic during the period of 4 to 17 Jan 2003.Antarctic ice chart of first week of Jan 2003 was derived from National Ice Center (NIC).The compared analysis of sea ice concentrations and thickness distributions were conducted though in situ data and NIC chart.Results from sea ice concentration-analysis indicated the presence of large-scale open water between 2000 and 4100 km along transit route resulted from sea ice drifting.We describe the existence of mostly smooth first-year sea ice in study region ranged between 30 and 120 era.We also display the derived overlying snow coverage.Our results reveal the strong correspondence between ship-based observations and remotely sensed ice charts whatever in ice concentrations and ice thickness distributions.     

Climate-induced fluvial dynamics in tropical Africa around the last glacial maximum?

The Greenland and East and West Antarctic ice sheets are assessed as being the source of ice that produced an Eemian sea level 6 m higher than present sea level. The most probable source is total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by partial collapse of the adjacent sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in direct contact with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This conclusion is reached by applying a simple formula relating the “floating fraction” of ice along flowlines to ice height above the bed. Increasing the floating fraction lowered ice elevations enough to contribute up to 4.7 m to global sea level. Adding 3.3 m resulting from total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accounts for the higher Eemian sea level. Partial gravitational collapse that produced the present ice drainage system of Amery Ice Shelf contributes 2.3 m to global sea level. These results cast doubt on the presumed stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but destabilizing mechanisms remain largely unknown. Possibilities include glacial surges and marine instabilities at the respective head and foot of ice streams.     

基于FY-3 MWRI数据的北极海冰密集度反演研究

以ASI算法（ARTIST sea ice algorithm）为基础, 得到基于风云3C气象卫星（FY-3C）微波辐射计（MWRI）数据的纯水与纯冰系点值, 利用插值方法确定基于FY-3 MWRI数据的ASI海冰密集度计算公式, 采用大津法（Otsu算法）得到基于MWRI数据的天气滤波器阈值。以2016年1月数据为例, 对北极海冰密集度进行反演, 并与美国国家冰雪数据中心（NSIDC）以及德国不莱梅大学提供的海冰密集度产品进行对比验证。结果表明： 基于MWRI数据得到的1月平均海冰面积以及平均密集度均介于二者之间, 其中平均密集度与不莱梅产品更接近, 仅相差1.310%。与风云卫星空间分辨率为250 m的中分辨率光谱成像仪（MERSI）数据得到的结果进行对比, 发现二者的海冰外缘线基本一致, MERSI数据得到的海冰密集度以及海冰面积比MWRI数据得到的结果分别高出5.029%、 9.318%。因此, 应用该方法可有效推进MWRI数据反演北极海冰密集度, 进而监测北极海冰分布和变化。     

The East Antarctic sea ice zone: Ice characteristics and drift

Results from studies of the surface energy balance and the ocean structure in the presence of fast ice near Mawson on the Antarctic coast are used to illustrate the important ways in which sea ice interacts with the ocean and atmosphere. Away from the coast, ship and drifting buoy observations are used to characterize the E Antarctic sea ice zone in a study area between 60° E and 120° E and S of 61° S. Divergent drift over most of the region plays a dominant role in expanding the ice extent in autumn and in determining the characteristics of the pack. Much of the sea ice in the region is young thin ice which forms in leads and polynyas, and in late spring in the study area, the ice thickness averaged over the total ocean surface within the ice edge less than 0.4 m. Even in winter the majority of ice floes off E Antarctica are probably less than 1 m thick.     

Volume of Antarctic Ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, and its impact on global sea level change

The volume of Antarctic ice at the Last Glacial Maximum is a key factor for calculating the past contribution of melting ice sheets to Late Pleistocene global sea level change. At present, there are large uncertainties in our knowledge of the extent and thickness of the formerly expanded Antarctic ice sheets, and in the timing of their release as meltwater into the world’s oceans. This paper reviews the four main approaches to determining former Antarctic ice volume, namely glacial geology, glacio-isostatic studies, glaciological modelling, and ice core analysis and attempts to reconcile these to give a ‘best estimate’ for ice volume. In the Ross Sea there was a major expansion of grounded ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, accounting for 2.3–3.2 m of global sea level. At some time in the Weddell Sea a large grounded ice sheet corresponding to c. 2.7 m of global sea level extended to the shelf break. However, this ice expansion has not yet been confidently dated and may not relate to the Last Glacial Maximum. Around East Antarctica there was thickening and advance offshore of ice in coastal regions. Ice core evidence suggests that the interior of East Antarctica was either close to its present elevation or thinner during the last glacial so the effect of East Antarctica on sea level depends on the net balance between marginal thickening and interior thinning. Suggested East Antarctic contributions vary from a 3–5.5 m lowering to a 0.64 m rise in global sea level. The Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet thickened and extended offshore at the Last Glacial Maximum, with a sea level equivalent contribution of c. 1.7 m. Thus, the Antarctic ice sheets accounted for between 6.1 and 13.1 m of global sea level fall at the Last Glacial Maximum. This is substantially less than has been suggested by most previous studies but the maximum figure matches well with one modelling estimate. The timing of Antarctic deglaciation is not well known. In the Ross Sea, terrestrial evidence suggests deglaciation may have begun at c. 13,000 yr BP¹ but that grounded ice persisted until c. 6,500 yr BP. Marine evidence suggests the western Ross Sea was deglaciated by c. 11,500 yr BP. Deglaciation of the Weddell Sea is poorly constrained. Grounded ice in the northern Antarctic Peninsula had retreated by c. 13,000 yr BP, and further south deglaciation occurred sometime prior to c. 6,000 yr BP. Many parts of coastal East Antarctica apparently escaped glaciation at the LGM, but in those areas that were ice-covered deglaciation was underway by 10,000 yr BP. With existing data, the timing of deglaciation shows no firm relation to northern hemisphere-driven sea level rise. This is probably due partly to lack of Antarctic dating evidence but also to the combined influence of several forcing mechanisms acting during deglaciation.     

Prediction of sea ice edge in the Antarctic using GVF Snake model

Antarctic sea ice cover plays an important role in shaping the earth’s climate, primarily by insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and increasing the surface albedo. The convective processes accompanied with the sea ice formation result bottom water formation. The cold and dense bottom water moves towards the equator along the ocean basins and takes part in the global thermohaline circulation. Sea ice edge is a potential indicator of climate change. Additionally, fishing and commercial shipping activities as well as military submarine operations in the polar seas need reliable ice edge information. However, as the sea ice edge is unstable in time, the temporal validity of the estimated ice edge is often shorter than the time required to transfer the information to the operational user. Hence, an accurate sea ice edge prediction as well as determination is crucial for fine-scale geophysical modeling and for near-real-time operations. In this study, active contour modelling (known as Snake model) and non-rigid motion estimation techniques have been used for predicting the sea ice edge (SIE) in the Antarctic. For this purpose the SIE has been detected from sea ice concentration derived using special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) observations. The 15% sea ice concentration pixels are being taken as the edge pixel between ice and water. The external force, gradient vector flow (GVF), of SIE for total the Antarctic region is parameterised for daily as well as weekly data set. The SIE is predicted at certain points using a statistical technique. These predicted points have been used to constitute a SIE using artificial intelligence technique, the gradient vector flow (GVF). The predicted edge has been validated with that of SSM/I. It is found that all the major curvatures have been captured by the predicated edge and it is in good agreement with that of the SSM/I observation.     

关于矿床学创新问题的探讨

2003年1月4日至2月15日期间,在5种不同情况下对南极海冰进行了调查研究。包括:(1)基于走航观测的威德尔海至普利茨湾之间海冰分布研究;(2)基于航空拍摄的普利茨湾海冰分布研究;(3)纳拉海峡固定冰和上浮雪厚度钻孔测量以及冰心钻取;(4)中山站附近融化冰的分布研究以及(5)中山站附近海冰早期冻结过程观测研究。结果表明,威德尔海至普利茨湾之间走航观测得到的海冰全部密集度为14.4%,大部分冰(99.7%~99.8%)属于一年冰,观测到冰的厚度在15~150 cm。沿观测航线上海冰最大密集度(80%)出现在威德尔海,从59°56 S到69°22 S以及从040°41 W到076°23 E的区域分布着广阔的水域。这一结果验证了Silvia的海冰漂移理论。普利茨湾沿岸海冰受制于沿岸地形、拉斯曼丘陵以及搁浅冰山的影响,其密集度呈现较大的空间变化。钻孔测量显示,纳拉海峡固定冰平均厚度为169.5 cm。风吹雪的重分布以及日照强度差异是导致纳拉海峡固定冰厚度差异的主要因素。观测表明,中山站附近海冰早期冻结遵循Lange的海冰早期冻结过程“饼状循环”最初的两个阶段。