Seasonal Stratification Characteristics of Vertical Profiles of Water Body in Lake Lugu

For the purpose of exploring seasonal stratification characteristics of water hydrochemistry, the seasonal dynamics and vertical thermal stratification of water temperature in Lake Lugu, the vertical profiles of water temperature (Temp), Electrical Conductivity (EC), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), pH and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) of Lake Lugu were monitored in January, April, July and October 2015, respectively. The results indicated that water body of Lake Lugu appeared thermal stratification in spring, summer and autumn, however, in winter, the water temperature in vertical direction was homogeneous. The thermocline was located between 10 and 25 m, nevertheless, it moved down to range from 20 to 30 m in autumn. In addition, water temperature in hypolimnion was maintained almost as a constant and consistent with annual temperature, indicating water body was stable all along. The results showed that the thermal stratification had some influences on vertical distributions of DO, EC, pH and Chl-a. The significant stratification of DO, EC and pH was found, especially in summer, DO and pH values in thermocline peaked due to greatly stable thermal stratification and temperature increase. In hypolimnion, DO concentration and pH value were very small. Moreover, Chl-a concentration was higher in the surface and lower in the bottom water, implying that human should be highly alter to prevent the emergence of a large area of algae in Lake Lugu. EC took on decreasing variation, besides, lower in the thermocline. While,Lugu Lake water salinity was lower and substantially constant (~ 0.10‰), without considering the effects of salinity, both in vertical sections and in epilimnion, thermocline and hypolimnion, there all existed a simple linear function of the relationship between EC andwater temperature, showing that Lugu Lake was affected by natural climate and keeps natural state.     

Lake Müggelsee —the use of lake water and its consequences

Lake Müggelsee (Groer Müggelsee) — the largest lake in the area of Berlin — is the main drinking water reservoir for Berlin (East), but also a center of numerous recreational activities and fishing. The use of the lake and its catchment area has continuously increase during the past decase and has caused a substantail deterioration of the lake water quality. Mass development of algae has become a limiting factor to all future utilizations of the lake. Since the beginning of this century up to the seventies the lake water has shown signs of a permanently growing eutrophication, e.g. the content of particulate matter in the lake water has nearly doubled. During and after World War II the lake quality (Secchi depth and seston content) improved remarkably due to a reduced input of nutrients.According to time series analyses of buoyant seston and meterologica elements the development of blue-green algae seems to depend more on weather conditions than on the nutrient content of the lake water.Therefore, a certain probability of blue-green algae blooms will remain, also in the case of reduced nutrient input. Phosphorous is the main cause for eutrophication. It was responsible for distinctly higher mass developments of algae during spring and autumn in the past two decades. As a consequence, comprehensive measures are to be taken to reduce phosphorus inputs into the Spree river and lake Müggelsee, e.g. by the substitution of P in detergents, construction of tertiary sewage treatment plants and a substantially reduced application of fertilizers in agriculture.     

Correlations between algae and water quality: factors driving eutrophication in Lake Taihu, China

Rapid population increase and economic growth in eastern China has lead to the degradation of many water bodies in the region, such as Lake Taihu, the third largest freshwater lake in China. Using data from recent investigations, the correlations between algae (measured as chlorophyll-a) and water quality indices in Lake Taihu were described by multivariate statistical analyses, and the key driving factors for the lake eutrophication were identified by principal component analysis. Results revealed strong spatiotemporal variation in the correlations between algae and water quality indices, suggesting that the limiting factor for the dominant algae growth depends on seasonality and location and it is necessary to reduce both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs for a long-term eutrophication control in this hyper-eutrophic system. Water temperature was another important controlling factor for algal growth in the lake. Using principal component analysis, nutrient contaminations from anthropogenic and natural inputs were identified as the key driving factor for the water quality problems of the lake. Moreover, five principal components were extracted and characterized with high spatial and seasonal variations in Lake Taihu. The key driving factors were believed to influence spatial variations including heavily polluted areas located in the northern and northwestern parts of the lake, where many manufacturing factories were built and wastewater from domestic and industrial plants was discharged. Based on this analysis, attention should be paid to effective land management, industrial wastewater treatment, and macrophytic vegetation restoration to reduce the pollutant loads and improve water quality. Principal component analysis was found to be a useful and effective method to reduce the number of analytical parameters without notably impairing the quality of information in this study.     

The Potential Endangers of the Tectonic Lake Water Leakage from Dianchi and Water Security

Dianchi or Lake Dian is the largest shallow water lake on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, which is not only crucial to maintain the ecological environments of Kunming, the famous city with four springs, but also contains almost 1.5×10⁹ m³ highly polluted water. The management of the lake pollution and eutrophication will be a long-lasting hard work and the sudden diffusion of such highly polluted water can lead to catastrophic eco-environmental problems. Based on the historical documents, underwater topographic features, regional geological tectonics and the chronology of the sediments, it can be concluded that at one time the water leaked out in Dianchi, which is in consistent with the historical record of 1764 AD. This water leak event resulted in two funnels in the center of Dianchi. The sedimentary feature and the deformation properties indicated that the slope of one funnel collapsed, which means it was blocked, but the other one was under development or in dormancy. When the pressure induced from the water level changed or the earthquakes occurred, the underwater channel could be open or connected, a catastrophic water leakage might be induced. The highly polluted lake water would possibly flow to Lake Fuxian and pollute almost 9% national strategic fresh water resource, resulting in an eco-environmental event and endangering the national water security. Therefore, to monitor the water flowing situation, detect the position and direction of the channel, block the channel and prevent possible lake water leakage are the priority and urgent measurements at present.     

湖泊纹层的沉积机理研究评述与展望

湖泊纹泥和湖相页岩主要沉积于湖水明显分层的条件下，湖水的分层受气候、盐度、水体深度等多方面的控制。在湖水分层的前提下，各种藻类、碳酸盐、有机质、粘土、粉砂等可以按不同季节分别形成不连续的纹层。其中，藻类、有机质纹层的沉积与藻类的季节性勃发密切相关；碳酸盐纹层的沉积可以与化学作用有关，也可以与藻类勃发产生的生物化学作用有关；粉砂、粘土则是以平流或层间流的方式季节性输入的。总之，纹层或页岩沉积的变化与气候的变化密切相关，利用纹层中的沉积信息研究气候和环境变化早已引起人们的重视，但以气候的周期性变化为主控因素来探讨纹层的变化和湖水的物理化学性质演化还有待开展。     

新疆阿尔泰山喀纳斯湖冰层温度变化规律试验研究

2014年12月-2015年4月期间,新疆布尔津县喀纳斯湖举行了冰上旅游项目。为监测冰层生长、发育和融化状况,分别对喀纳斯湖（湖边、湖中）A、B、C三点进行温度监测,利用监测得到的冰层温度数据绘制湖冰从上到下温度分布状况图。根据湖边与湖中的冰层结构特点,从冰层的天然结构角度分析湖冰结构对温度分布的影响。结果表明：天然冰层中温度传递系数并不是一致不变的,既受冰上气温、冰下湖水温度的影响,也受到冰层自身结构状况的影响,并进一步阐述了湖面冰层的温度分布规律与变化成因,为分析温度对冰层强度的影响奠定了基础。     

西藏班戈错水菱镁矿藻类成矿实验及其成因分析

目前关于天然水菱镁矿的形成认识主要有蒸发沉积成因和生物成因两类。前人在室内成功制备出水菱镁矿矿物,证实了该矿物的无机成因理论,但是实验结晶条件明显高于西藏班戈错的寒冷气候条件和水化学条件,并且班戈错湖水通过自然蒸发结晶也难以形成水菱镁矿矿物,而这一认识与周边阶地上正在形成水菱镁矿的现象相矛盾。因此,自然蒸发沉积可能不是现阶段班戈错水菱镁矿的主要形成过程,而已有研究表明,藻类具备诱导形成碳酸盐矿物的能力,本文利用西藏班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水及其藻类开展室内模拟实验,并与无藻类的湖水自然结晶结果相对照,探讨藻类生命活动与班戈错水菱镁矿的成因联系。研究发现,藻类不仅能够适应高盐度盐水环境（矿化度117.3 g/L）,并且在其光合作用过程中还能显著提高周围水体pH值（最高可达10.564）,诱导并促进球碳镁石在藻类网状节点处结晶沉淀,该矿物进一步脱水即能够形成水菱镁矿矿物;而人为提高班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水Mg2+浓度也仅能结晶形成三水菱镁矿矿物,无球碳镁石或水菱镁矿结晶析出。因此,西藏班戈错水菱镁矿的形成过程与藻类生物成矿作用密切相关,但是有关球碳镁石向水菱镁矿转变的具体条件以及藻类成矿作用的具体分子机制仍不清楚,有待于进一步研究。     

云南大理地区1989—2019年期间气候变化及对洱海水质的影响

依据1989年至2019年云南大理地区所辖12个气象站点的气候数据和洱海水质监测资料等文献,分析大理地区气候变化特征和洱海富营养化变化趋势,并总结洱海水质综合营养状态指数与降水量、气温的相互关系。结果表明,1989年至2019年期间,大理地区的年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,气候变暖明显,冬季气温升温幅度最大;年降水量总体呈波动下降趋势,秋季降水量减少最为显著。洱海水质的综合营养状态指数及单因子总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数等总体呈升高趋势,而水体透明度呈降低趋势;进一步可分成2个阶段,即2003年之前呈快速上升或下降变化趋势;2003年之后呈波动稳定趋势。洱海综合营养状态指数与年平均气温呈正相关,与年降水量呈负相关关系;总氮、水体透明度分别与年平均气温正相关和负相关,与年降水量则呈负相关和正相关;而总磷与冬季平均气温、高锰酸盐指数与夏季或冬季平均气温均呈正相关关系。年内变化上,洱海污染指数、综合营养状态指数在最近的2015—2019年期间呈现6—10月份明显增高,显示非汛期水质明显好于汛期状况。总之,1989—2019年期间,受大理地区气温升高、降水量减少导致入湖水量减少的影响,洱海综合营养状态指数呈升高趋势,湖泊富营养化进程加剧状况没有得到改善,洱海水环境仍然比较脆弱。     

西藏班戈错水菱镁矿藻类成矿实验及其成因分析

目前关于天然水菱镁矿的形成认识主要有蒸发沉积成因和生物成因两类。前人在室内成功制备出水菱镁矿矿物,证实了该矿物的无机成因理论,但是实验结晶条件明显高于西藏班戈错的寒冷气候条件和水化学条件,并且班戈错湖水通过自然蒸发结晶也难以形成水菱镁矿矿物,而这一认识与周边阶地上正在形成水菱镁矿的现象相矛盾。因此,自然蒸发沉积可能不是现阶段班戈错水菱镁矿的主要形成过程,而已有研究表明,藻类具备诱导形成碳酸盐矿物的能力,本文利用西藏班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水及其藻类开展室内模拟实验,并与无藻类的湖水自然结晶结果相对照,探讨藻类生命活动与班戈错水菱镁矿的成因联系。研究发现,藻类不仅能够适应高盐度盐水环境（矿化度117.3 g/L）,并且在其光合作用过程中还能显著提高周围水体pH值（最高可达10.564）,诱导并促进球碳镁石在藻类网状节点处结晶沉淀,该矿物进一步脱水即能够形成水菱镁矿矿物;而人为提高班戈错Ⅲ湖湖水Mg2+浓度也仅能结晶形成三水菱镁矿矿物,无球碳镁石或水菱镁矿结晶析出。因此,西藏班戈错水菱镁矿的形成过程与藻类生物成矿作用密切相关,但是有关球碳镁石向水菱镁矿转变的具体条件以及藻类成矿作用的具体分子机制仍不清楚,有待于进一步研究。     

济阳坳陷东营凹陷古近系沙河街组深湖相油页岩的特征及成因

古近系沙河街组沙三段下部发育的深湖相油页岩是东营凹陷最重要的优质烃源岩。该油页岩呈深灰色或棕褐色，页理发育，主要由富含有机质纹层和浅灰色钙质纹层形成的毫米级沉积层偶组成。其中有机质纹层中的有机碳含量在5％以上，富含藻类化石及鱼化石等；钙质纹层主要由方解石组成，呈灰白色。沉积环境分析表明，该油页岩形成于湿润气候条件下的半咸水-微咸水的深湖缺氧环境中，沉积速率较慢，湖盆处于欠补偿状态，水体分层结构使沉积有机质得到有效保存。藻类等水生生物勃发吸收了更多的CO2，从而诱发大量内生成因的碳酸盐沉淀，形成碳酸盐纹层，而藻类的死亡则导致湖水有机质输送通量增多，使沉积物中有机质保存量增大，促使高有机质丰度烃源岩的形成。因此，分层的水体结构和藻类的勃发是油页岩形成的重要控制因素。     

藏南羊卓雍错流域主要湖泊水质状况及其评价

湖泊水质是研究湖泊变化及其对气候变化响应的重要指标.分析了藏南羊卓雍错流域主要湖泊的水化学指标概况、 水化学组成、 矿化度时空分布及其驱动, 并在此基础上对各湖泊的水质现状进行了评价. 研究表明: 流域内各湖泊水化学性质虽有一定的相似性, 但矿化度等水化学指标浓度存在显著差异, 各湖泊水化学组成亦差异显著. 羊卓雍错和巴纠错均为硫酸盐类-镁组, 沉错为硫酸盐类-钠组, 普莫雍错和空姆错则分别为重碳酸盐类-镁组和重碳酸盐类-钙组. 各湖泊矿化度差异较大的主要原因在于其补给来源不同, 以降水补给为主的湖泊矿化度远高于以冰雪融水补给为主的湖泊. 与全球气候变暖相对应, 各湖泊矿化度变化反映了气候变化的影响, 而水电站运行对羊卓雍错水体化学性质变化有所贡献. 目前, 羊卓雍错、 普莫雍错水质为劣V类, 空姆错、 沉错、 巴纠错水质为V类. 深入探讨该流域水质对气候变化的响应, 亟需更长时间序列的数据支持. 为此, 必须继续在该流域长期开展全方位的水化学观测与水质监测、 评价工作.     

牛栏江流域水污染特征与水资源保护对策研究

牛栏江—滇池补水工程是滇池流域及周边地区的水资源综合利用工程,是增加滇池生态环境水量,改善滇池水资源质量的重要工程,对于保障现代新昆明建设和云南省经济社会可持续发展具有重大战略意义。然而近年的监测结果表明,牛栏江流域水资源质量有下降趋势。在以往的研究中曾提出面源污染是主要污染源。通过研究,发现牛栏江水污染物以总磷(TP)为主,且主要集中在七星桥断面以上;总磷(TP)污染主要来自于工业排放。并据此提出水污染治理的水资源保护对策。水环境治理措施和水质监测结果验证了结果的可靠性。     

湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害形成机理及防治的基础研究

湖泊具有供水、渔业、旅游、维持区域生态系统平衡等功能,是支撑我国经济和社会发展的重要资源之一。但是近30年来,湖泊富营养化所导致的蓝藻水华频繁暴发,生态灾害事件频发,严重影响湖泊功能的发挥, 制约区域经济可持续发展。针对国家在保障区域水安全和生态安全、保护人民健康及建设和谐社会等方面的重大需求,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害形成机理及防治的基础研究”于2008年7月正式立项。项目拟解决的关键科学问题包括：①湖泊蓝藻水华主要衍生污染物的形成机理、迁移转化规律和毒理效应;②蓝藻水华导致湖泊生态系统结构变化和功能退化的机理;③蓝藻水华生态灾害评估及调控机理。针对上述科学问题,项目以蓝藻水华污染物的产生、湖泊生态系统结构与功能的响应以及生态灾害的评估与调控为研究主线,重点开展以下几个方面的研究：①蓝藻水华衍生污染物的产生及其环境过程;②蓝藻水华衍生污染物的毒理效应与生态和健康风险;③蓝藻水华导致湖泊生态系统结构变化与功能退化的关键过程和机制;④蓝藻水华灾害治理和调控的的技术原理和途径。项目的实施和完成将为我国湖泊蓝藻水华生态灾害的预防与控制提供理论和技术原理支撑。     

松辽盆地嫩江组泥页岩有机质富集模式探讨——以嫩江组一、二段油页岩为例

通过理论模型推演与地质研究实例相结合的方式,以松辽盆地白垩系嫩江组一、二段发育的富有机质页岩(油页岩)为例,重点利用松科1井(南孔)嫩江组取芯井已有测试分析资料,综合有机碳(TOC)含量、黄铁矿硫同位素、全岩元素,以及相关测井、地震资料,综合探讨分析了嫩江组油页岩的成因机制以及油气勘探意义。研究认为:(1)将松辽盆地嫩江组油页岩的形成机制完全归因于海水侵入湖盆很可能是不全面的。虽然海侵能够导致湖盆水体咸化以及藻类勃发,但由于海侵时富氧表层海水对湖盆底部氧化还原环境的改变,"海侵"发生时可能在一定程度上抑制有机质在沉积物中的富集保存,这一点可以从松科1井连续地化剖面上得到验证;(2)海侵对富有机质页岩沉积的促进因素很可能主要体现在海侵结束后湖盆的持续咸化带来的藻类勃发;(3)嫩江组泥岩内存在全盆地广泛分布的火山凝灰岩沉积,且通常与油页岩呈共生关系。古松辽湖盆生产力的提升与火山灰输入所带来的营养物质,如磷、铁等直接相关;(4)嫩江组一、二段油页岩的形成可能是海侵结束后湖盆水体咸化与火山灰瞬间大量输入所诱发的湖盆水体富营养化事件多因素共同作用的结果。油页岩含油率分布规律显示在湖盆生产力普遍较高的情况下,沉积区水体深度越深、越远离河流碎屑输入,则有机质的富集保存条件越好,油页岩品质越高。     

Investigation of water quality on Gökçekaya dam lake using multivariate statistical analysis,in Eskişehir,Turkey

Gökçekaya Dam is one of the dams located on the Sakarya River (Eski?ehir) in Turkey and is approximately 38 years old. No study regarding to the water quality of the dam lake has been hitherto made. This study aimed at determining the seasonal variations with physical, chemical, and biological parameters of the water quality of the dam lake. Depth-wise water samples were taken from five selected stations, in seasonal periods during 2005–2008, and anlayzed. The quality of water was classified in accordance with the results and taking into consideration many parameters. At the same time, number and type diversities of dissolved heavy metals and algae population were analyzed. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and classification analysis (CA) methods, differences between these parameters and samples from stations have been determined . The analysis showed that Gökçekaya dam lake, formerly an oligotrophic lake, has become a mesotrophic lake. And according to the results thereof the Lake has mezotrophic characteristics due to the sudden changes (including household waste water inflow and opening the Sar?yar dam lake shutters) in certain periods and in some stations. Hierarchical clustering analysis, revealed no significant difference between the measured parameters. And according to the Water Pollution Control Regulations in Turkey (WPCR) Gökçekaya dam lake is in the first class quality in terms of anions, cations, heavy metals, temperature, and pH values. However, the is of first class quality presence of nitrite reduces the water quality in the lake and causes this lake to be classified in the fourth class quality.     

Spatial–temporal characteristics of surface water quality in the Taihu Basin,China

Taihu Basin is one of the most developed and industrialized regions in China. In the last two decades, rapid development of economy as well as an increase in population has resulted in an increase of pollutants produced and discharged into rivers and lakes. Much more attention has been paid on the serious water pollution problems due to high frequency of algal blooming. The dataset, obtained during the period 2001–2002 from the Water Resources Protection Bureau of the Taihu Basin, consisted of eight physicochemical variables surveyed monthly at 22 sampling sites in the Taihu Basin, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify the characteristics of the surface water quality in the studied area. The temporal and spatial variations of water quality were also evaluated by using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method. PCA extracted the first two principal components (PCs), explaining 86.18% of the total variance of the raw data. Especially, PC1 (73.72%) had strong positive correlation with DO, and was negatively associated with COD_Mn, COD, BOD, NH₄ ⁺–N, TP and TN. PC2 (12.46%) was characterized by pH. CA showed that most sites were highly polluted by industrial and domestic wastewater which contributed significantly to PC1. The sites located in the west of Lake Taihu were influenced by farmland runoff which may contribute to nitrogen pollution of Lake Taihu, whereas the monitoring sites in the eastern of Lake Taihu demonstrated that urban residential subsistence and domestic wastewater are the major contaminants. FSE indicates that there is no obvious variance between 2001 and 2002 among most sites. Only several sites free from point-source pollution appear to exhibit good water quality through the studied period.     

太湖水域“湖泛”及其成因研究

针对2007年和2008年太湖贡湖和无锡宜兴近岸水域及近年来太湖北部湾区域发生的"湖泛"现象,通过实测监测和历史资料分析,揭示出太湖湖体污染负荷高、水体藻类死亡,太湖的流泥分布,风场、气温、水位等要素的组合,是"湖泛"产生的主要原因,这为进一步研究"湖泛"机理和防治提供了科学基础和途径。     

High-resolution monitoring of water temperature and oxygen concentration in Lake Murten (Switzerland)

Lake Murten is located in the Lake District in western Switzerland and so far, it has been poorly investigated. The Environmental Service of Fribourg (SEn) has monitored this lake once a month for several years by water profiles (water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, conductivity) at its deepest part. The SEn identified the stratification of water masses as one of the main causes for oxygen consumption in the hypolimnion. In the present study, a Lander System was deployed in Lake Murten from April to September 2015 at 20 m depth at the northwestern part of the lake to monitor water temperature and dissolved oxygen at higher resolution (30 s interval). These records were compared with time series of atmospheric parameters like atmospheric temperature, wind speed and precipitation. A clear correlation of lake temperatures with wind speed was observed during the Spring and Autumn. The water mass stratification evolved through the season and reached its peak during Summer, preventing surface turbulences to reach the deeper part (20 m) of the water column and to partially oxygenate the metalimnion.     

天然矿物材料修复富营养化水体的实验研究

采用底泥掩蔽技术，选取天然红土，添加适量的粉煤灰及石灰粉作为掩蔽覆盖物，对滇池富营养化水体进行现场修复实验。结果表明：用天然矿物材料减小底泥内源营养盐负荷的释放修复富营养化水体的效果良好；红土是有效的底泥覆盖材料，添加粉煤灰和石灰粉有助于消减底泥中TP、TN的释放量，还可提高对藻类等浮游植物繁殖的营养基础和对藻、藻细胞及其胚胎上浮生长的控制效率，最终达到除藻的目的，为滇池及类似湖库富营养化水体的修复提供了崭新的思路。     

Effects of land-based sources on water quality in the Omerli reservoir (Istanbul,Turkey)

The Omerli reservoir is located on the northeastern side of the Istanbul City. It is one of the most important sources of drinking water with a surface area of 23.1 km² and a volume of 220 × 10⁶ m³ in the Marmara Region. Water quality characteristics of the lake investigated from May 2002 to April 2003 enabled us to identify the effect of waste loads on water quality of Omerli Lake. The following parameters were measured in the lake water: temperature (16.1°C), conductivity (250 μS/cm), secchi disk depth (1.9 m), dissolved oxygen (DO) (9.36 mg/L), nutrients [ortho-phosphate (78.9 μg/L), nitrate + nitrite (707.5 μg/L) and ammonia-nitrogen (264 μg/L)], chlorophyll a (9.43 μg/L), total organic carbon (3.33 mg/L), total suspended solids (4.54 mg/L), total poly aromatic hydrocarbon (t-PAH) (0.69 μg/L) and copper (24.5 μg/L). T-PAH (16.5 mg/g-dry-w), Cu (96.5 μg/g-dry-w), organic carbon (org-C) (2.0%) and N (0.44%) were determined in the surface sediment. The values of chlorophyll a and DO in the upper layer were relatively high and low secchi disk depths indicates eutrophic state. There are five channels discharging water, including waste water, into the lake. All channels were sampled during six occasions in order to cover variations between seasons. The following parameters were measured: total organic carbon, total phosphorus, total kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonia and total suspended solids with the flow rates. The Göçbeyli stream has the highest flow into the lake (1.5 × 10⁸ m³/year) but most of the nutrients were discharged from the Pa?aköy channel. It is accounting for 81% of ammonia and 80% of total phosphorus into the lake. Three scenarios were run using AQUATOX model: (1) all existing inflows are discharging into the lake (present situation); (2) none is discharging; (3) all are discharging except the Pa?aköy channel. The first scenario produced concentrations consistent with measurements in the lake. In all stations, a phytoplankton peak value was predicted during November and December 2002, and January 2003. In the second scenario, as expected, a significant decrease in the concentrations was predicted. In the third scenario, a small improvement in the water quality was obtained. To significantly improve the state of the lake, instead of entering Pa?aköy channel, wastewater should bypass the lake.