SOME CATASTROPHE PROPERTIES OF TWO-LAYER SHEAR FLOW

In this paper a simple current system which consists of two stratified incompressible layers is examined. For the basic equations of the motion of fluid a lower order spectrum model is established by means of Galerkin method. Adopting the difference of wind velocity between the upper and lower layers, As =as a control parameter, the bifurcation and stability of the solution of the dynamical systemare discussed. It is found that the flow states in the lower layer will have a catastrophe, when where Cg is the phase velocity of the internal inertio-gravitational wave in a geostrophic current.These results may give a reasonable explanation for the mechanism of the catastrophe phenomena, including the "pressure-jump" in the atmosphere.     

The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current.On an f-plane,the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow.A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane.The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced.But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane.The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes.On an f-plane,the convection tends to be symmetric,which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core.On the other hand,horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core,and hence the TC is not as intense.This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect.A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow.Thus,the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution.Dynamically,the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere.However,the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on aβ-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii ＞450 km,and hence there is a lesser intensification.     

The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current.On an f-plane,the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow.A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane.The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced.But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane.The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes.On an f-plane,the convection tends to be symmetric,which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core.On the other hand,horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core,and hence the TC is not as intense.This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect.A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow.Thus,the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution.Dynamically,the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere.However,the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on aβ-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii ＞450 km,and hence there is a lesser intensification.     

Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Monsoon Depression in South China: Structure Analysis

A heavy rainfall associated with the deepening of a monsoon depression happened in the summer of 2005. This process was first diagnostically analyzed and the 3D structure of the monsoon depression was discussed~ then this structure was compared with those of the monsoon depression in South Asia and the low vortex in the Meiyu front. The results showed that the heavy rainfall directly resulted from a monsoon depression in South China~ and the large-scale environment provided a favorable background for the deepening of the monsoon depression. The 3D structure of the monsoon depression was as follows. In the horizontal direction, there existed a convective cloud band to the south of the monsoon depression, which lay in a convectively instable area, with a relatively strong ascending motion in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, and the ascending motion matched well with a moist tongue, a convergence area, and a band of positive vorticity in the mid and low levels of the troposphere. In the vertical direction, the depression had an obviously cyclonic circulation in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, but no circulation from above 300 hPa. The monsoon depression corresponded to convergence and positive vorticity in the low levels, but to divergence and negative vorticity in the upper levels. The upward draft of the depression could reach the upper levels of the troposphere in the west of the depression, while the descending motion lay in the east. There was a low-level jet to the south of the depression, while the upper-level jet was not obvious. The depression was vertically warm in the upper levels and cold in the low levels, and the axis of the depression tilted southeastward with height, whose characteristics were different not only from the monsoon depression in South Asia but also from the low vortex in the Meiyu front.     

Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean

Forecasts of the intensity and quantitative precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs) are generally inaccurate, because the strength and structure of a TC show a complicated spatiotemporal pattern and are affected by various factors. Among these, asymmetric convection plays an important role. This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of convection in TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2005–2012, based on data obtained from the Feng Yun 2(FY2)geostationary satellite. The asymmetric distributions of the incidence, intensity and morphology of convections are analyzed.Results show that the PDFs of the convection occurrence curve to the azimuth are sinusoidal. The rear-left quadrant relative to TC motion shows the highest occurrence rate of convection, while the front-right quadrant has the lowest. In terms of intensity, weak convections are favored in the front-left of a TC at large distances, whereas strong convections are more likely to appear to the rear-right of a TC within a 300 km range. More than 70% of all MCSs examined here are elongated systems, and meso-β enlongated convective systems(MβECSs) are the most dominant type observed in the outer region of a TC. Smaller MCSs tend to be more concentrated near the center of a TC. While semi-circular MCSs [MβCCSs, MCCs(mesoscale convective complexes)] show a high incidence rate to the rear of a TC, elongated MCSs [MβECSs, PECSs(persistent elongated convective systems)] are more likely to appear in the rear-right quadrant of a TC within a range of 400 km.     

THE DYNAMIC EFFECT OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE FORMATION OF ZONAL TYPE CIRCULATION OVER EAST ASIA

From a statistical study of the atmospheric circulation types over the Northern Hemisphere it is found that the zonal type circulation predominates in East Asia. From a three-layer primitive equation model in σ-coordinate, the orographic effect on a westerly current over the Northern Hemisphere is studied. A distinguished deepening trough is observed in the lee-side slope of the Rocky Mountains. But a pronounced trough is over the East Asia coast far from the Tibetan Plateau. In a case of 48 h numerical forecast, it is found that the effect of the Tibetan Plateau tends to build up a rather zonal type circulation, which is con-sistent with the observations. These may be partly explained by the topographic effect of the north slope of the Tibetan Plateau in a simple geostrophic theory.     

Quantile Trends in Temperature Extremes in China

A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960-2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much fas- ter as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.     

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION ON REAL-TIME REMOTE SENSING OF LAYERED ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE BY A GROUND-BASED RADIOMETER OF 1.35 cm WAVELENGTH

The principle and technique of real-time remote sensing of the layered atmospheric precipitabie by using a ground-based radiometer of 1.35 cm wavelength with a microcomputer as a controlling and data processing unit are presented. The stability and calibration of the instrument are outlined. Observations during the summer of 1984 show that the RMS deviation of the layered precipitabie between the radiometer measurement and the radiosonde ranges from 0.20 to 0.25 g/cm2 with a correlation coefficient of above 90 %.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON NH SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC QUASI-STATIONARY VORTICES IN SUMMER

To reveal the possible factors affecting the maintenance and interannual variations of the subtropical planetary-scale vortices such as the south Asian anticyclone and the mid-oceanic troughs, a series of numerical experiments are conducted with a quasi-geostrophic low-resolution spectral model. Firstly, a simulation experiment is performed in which the realistic thermal and topographic forcing are incorporated. The results of simulation show a certain similarity to the actual subtropical flow field in July. On the basis of simulation experiment a series of contrast experiments are performed. It is found that the topographic boundary forcing is less important than the thermal forcing in the dynamics of these systems, and that the anomaly of heating field may cause significant change in position and intensity of the south Asian high and the other systems. It is speculated that the response of the subtropical large-scale systems to heating anomaly is an important cause for the interannual variations of ci     

Mesoscale Diagnosis of a Torrential Rainfall Caused by a Tropical Depression

On August 5, 2001, Shanghai was struck by a torrential rainfall due to the passage of a tropical depression (TD). The rainfall intensity has been the strongest in recent 50 years. In this paper, a set of mesoscale re-analyses data and the planetary boundary layer observation from a wind profiler are used to understand the possible mechanism of such a heavy rain. Results show that the outburst of a southerly jet in the lower atmosphere triggered the explosive development of cyclonically vertical vorticity in the region with steep potential temperature surfaces in front of the TD; while the cyclonic vorticity increased notably at higher levels due to the small atmospheric vertical stability of westerly currents in the vicinity of Shanghai. The simultaneous sharp development of cyclonic vorticity at different levels should be the main cause for the torrential rainfall.     

Numerical study of the evolution of a sea-breeze front under two environmental flows

The evolution of a sea-breeze front(SBF)in parallel and offshore environmental flows was investigated by using high-resolution simulations of two SBF cases from the Bohai Bay region,China.The results show that the combination of a distinct vertical wind shear caused by the sea-breeze circulation with a neutral or slightly stable atmospheric stratification associated with the thermal inner boundary layer promoted the occurrence and maintenance of a Kelvin-Helmholtz billow(KHB).In a parallel environmental flow,the SBF evolved into a few connected segments because of the inhomogeneity of the sea-breeze direction and intensity as it penetrated inland.A significant upward vertical motion occurred at the two ends of the SBF segment owing to the sea-breeze convergence and was accelerated by the KHB.The KHB made a notable contribution to the intensity at the ends of the segment,whereas the intensity at the middle segment was primarily attributed to the convergence between the sea breeze and the parallel flow.In the offshore environmental flow,the clockwise rotation of the offshore flow varying with time increased the downstream convergence of the interface between the sea breeze and the offshore flow and pushed the downstream convergence zone to an orientation consistent with the offshore flow.The air parcels ascending from the downstream part of the SBF were continuously lifted by the downstream convergence zone during their advection,leading to a significant downstream development of the SBF.The significant upward vertical motion caused by the sea-breeze convergence behind the upstream end of the SBF was shifted to the upstream end of the SBF by the KHB,which enhanced the intensity of the upstream end of the SBF.     

A diagnostic study of heavy rainfall in karachi due to merging of a mesoscale low and a diffused tropical depression during South Asian summer monsoon

This paper presents the results of a diagnostic study of a typical case of very heavy rainfall during the South Asian summer monsoon when a mesoscale low in a desert climate merged with a diffused tropical depression. The former low was located over Pakistan‘s desert region and the latter depression originated over the Bay of Bengal. Surface and NCEP reanalysis data supported by satellite and radar images were incorporated in the diagnosis. The relationship between the heavy precipitation process and large-scale circulations such as monsoon trough, subtropical high, westerly jet, low level jet and water vapor transport were investigated to further understand the mechanism of this peculiar interaction. It was found that: (1) the mesoscale low developed as a result of cold air advection aloft from northern latitudes and strong convection over the region of humidity convergence on 24 July 2003 over the lndian Rajistan area. (2) On the same day, a low that formed over the Bay of Bengal was transformed into a monsoon depression and moved westward to the mesoscale low which existed over southwest India and the adjoining southeastern parts of Pakistan. (3) Initially, the mesoscale low received moisture supply from both the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea, whereas the Bay of Bengal maintained the continuous supply of moisture to the monsoon depression. (4) After the depression crossed central India, the Bay‘s moisture supply was cut off and the Arabian Sea became the only source of moisture to both the closely located systems. On 27 July, both of the systems merged together and the merger resulted in a heavy downpour in the Karachi metropolitan and in its surroundings. (5) With the intensification as well as the southeastward extensionof the subtropical high and the shift of the monsoon trough axis from southwest-west to northeast-east,the monsoon depression moved southwestward. In this situation, there existed a very favourable condition for a merger of the two systems in the presence of cross-latitude influence. (6) A number of convective cloud clusters were developed and organized in the mesoscale low. Probably, interactions existed among the multi-scale systems.     

An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model （SD-90） Ⅱ： Real Tropical Cyclone Cases

In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.     

An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model (SD–90) II: Real Tropical Cyclone Cases

In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone (TC) tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis (2000) and Winnie (1997), and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.     

Response of a Grassland Ecosystem to Climate Change in a Theoretical Model

The response of a grassland ecosystem to climate change is discussed within the context of a theoretical model.An optimization approach,a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter(CNOP-P) approach,was employed in this study.The CNOP-P,a perturbation of moisture index in the theoretical model,represents a nonlinear climate perturbation.Two kinds of linear climate perturbations were also used to study the response of the grassland ecosystem to different types of climate changes.The results show that the extent of grassland ecosystem variation caused by the CNOP-P-type climate change is greater than that caused by the two linear types of climate change.In addition,the grassland ecosystem affected by the CNOP-P-type climate change evolved into a desert ecosystem,and the two linear types of climate changes failed within a specific amplitude range when the moisture index recovered to its reference state.Therefore,the grassland ecosystem response to climate change was nonlinear.This study yielded similar results for a desert ecosystem seeded with both living and wilted biomass litter.The quantitative analysis performed in this study also accounted for the role of soil moisture in the root zone and the shading effect of wilted biomass on the grassland ecosystem through nonlinear interactions between soil and vegetation.The results of this study imply that the CNOP-P approach is a potentially effective tool for assessing the impact of nonlinear climate change on grassland ecosystems.     

Optical and Electrical Observations of an Abnormal Triggered Lightning Event with two Upward Propagations

This study investigates an abnormal artificially triggered lightning event that produced two positive upward propagations: one during the initial stage (i.e., the upward leader (UL)) and the other after a negative downward aborted leader (DAL). The triggered lightning was induced in a weak thunderstorm over the experiment site and did not produce a return stroke. All of the intra-cloud lightning around the experiment site produced positive changes in the electric field. The initial stage was a weak discharge process. A downward dart leader propagated along the channel produced by the first UL, ending at a height of approximately 453 m and forming a DAL. Under the influence of the DAL, the electric field at a point located 78 m from the rod experienced a steady reduction of about 6.8 kV m-1 over 5.24 ms prior to the initiation of a new upward channel (i.e., the second upward propagation (UP)). The second UP, which started approximately 4.1 ms after the termination of the DAL and propagated along the original channel, was triggered by the DAL and sustained for approximately 2.95 ms. Two distinct current pulses were superimposed on the current of the second UP. The first pulse, which was related to the sudden initiation of the second UP, was characterized by a more rapid increase and decrease and a larger peak value than the second pulse, which was related to the development of the second UP into the area affected by the DAL. The second UP contained both a similar-to-leader process and a following neutralization process. This study introduces a new type of triggering leader, in which a new upward discharge is triggered in an established channel by an aborted leader propagating along the same channel with opposite polarity and propagation direction.     

Interaction of typhoon and mesoscale vortex

Under two types of initial tropical cyclone structures that are characterized by high and low vorticity zones, four sets of numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the interaction of a tropical cyclone with an adjacent mesoscale vortex (MSV) and its impact on the tropical cyclone intensity change,using a quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 km. The results suggest that the interaction of a tropical cyclone characterized by a high vorticity zonal structure and an MSV would result in an intensification of the cyclone. Its central pressure decreases by more than 14 hPa. In the process of tile interaction, the west and middle segments of the high vorticity zone evolve into two peripheral spiral bands of the tropical cyclone, and the merging of the east segment and the inward propagating MSV forms a new vorticity accumulation area, wherein the maximum vorticity is remarkably greater than that in the center of the initial tropical cyclone circulation. It is this process of merging and strengthening that causes a greater pressure decrease in the center of the tropical cyclone. This process is also more complicated than those that have been studied in the past, which indicated that only the inward transfer of vorticity of the MSV can result in the strengthening of the tropical cyclone.     

An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries

The radiative transfer model (RT3), a vector radiative transfer (VRT) scheme in a plane-parallel atmosphere, was bounded by a rough ocean surface in this study. The boundary problem was solved using a Fourier series decomposition of the radiation field as a function of the azimuth. For the case of a rough ocean surface, the decomposition was obtained by developing both the Fresnel reflection matrix and the probability distribution of the water facet orientation as Fourier series. The effect of shadowing by ocean surface waves was also considered in the boundary condition. The VRT model can compute the intensity and degree of polarization of the light at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the ocean surface, and any level of the atmosphere in the ocean-atmosphere system. The results obtained by our model are in good agreement with those computed by Ahmad’s model. The simulated results showed that the shadow effects of wave facets on the intensity and the degree of polarization are negligible except at the ocean surface near the grazing angle, possibly because we did not consider the effect of white caps.     

Surface and upper-level features associated with wintertime cold surge outbreaks in South Korea

The surface and upper-level features associated with a sharp drop of wintertime daily temperature over South Korea is investigated in this study. This sharp drop in daily temperature is called a cold surge and is one of the most hazardous weather phenomena in East Asian winters. An upper-level baroclinic wave of 60°wavelength propagating eastward at a phase speed of 12°longitude per day across the continent of northern China from the west of Lake Baikal toward the eastern coast of China causes the outbreak of cold air over South Korea. The cooling associated with the upper-level baroclinic wave is found at all altitudes under the geopotential height-fall center near the tropopause. The development in the ridge seems to derive the early evolution of the eastward-propagating sinusoidal wave, whereas the trough is connected directly with the tropospheric temperature-drop. An enhancement of the wintertime East Asian jet stream after the outbreak of a cold surge is a response to the steep temperature gradient associated with the developing baroclinic wave.     

Efficient Anomalous Forcings for Linear Problems

For linear forcing problems, a method is developed to provide a set of forcing modes which form a complete orthonormal basis for the finite-time response to steady forcing in the energy inner product space. The forcing modes are found by calculating eigenvectors of a positive definite and symmetric matrix determined from given equations of motion. The amplitude of responses to forcing modes is given in terms of the associated eigenvalues. This method is used in a nondivergent barotropic model linearized about the 300 hPa zonally-varying climatological flow both for northern summertime and wintertime. The results show that the amplitude of response varies considerably with different forcing modes. Only a few of forcing modes associated with the leading eigenvalues, called efficient forcing mode, can excite significant response. The efficient forcing modes possess highly localized spatial structure with wavetrain appearance. Most of the efficient forcings are located to the south of regions of the jet cor