发展中的板块边界:天山-贝加尔活动构造带

亚洲内陆的强地震密集地发生在天山-贝加尔一线,但该处并不存在一条连续的大断裂,学术界对这个问题的认识长期相左。文中分析了这条地震带的时空分布、分区特点、应力状态和活动周期,计算了欧亚大陆的布格重力异常场、均衡重力异常场,反演了上地幔的密度分布和剪切波速分布。发现在这个部位的70~250km的深部有一条北东向的密度、速度陡变带,它是新生代的冷地幔和热地幔的交界带,与浅部构造存在立交关系,对亚洲大陆的现今构造运动和应力场具有重要的控制作用。这个带的地震不同于传统意义上的板缘地震和板内地震,是一种因为深浅构造不同而造成的结构性地震,性质上为大陆内缘地震。文中还就深浅构造的空间立交关系、时间镜像关系进行了讨论,指出在南北地震带和伊朗东侧地震带的立交结构也与上地幔构造有关。天山-贝加尔活动构造带是正在发展中的板块边界,是大陆内部的一个典型构造,北侧为稳定的俄罗斯-西伯利亚次板块,南侧为活动的中国-东南亚次板块。     

Seismicity of Gujarat

Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M _w7.8), 1956 (M _w6.0) and 2001 (M _w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6.     

Intra-plate seismicity and inter-plate earthquakes: Historical activity in Southwest Japan

Over the last four hundred years the spatial variation of intra-plate seismicity in Southwest Japan correlates well with the occurrence of great inter-plate earthquakes. For fifty years before an inter-plate earthquake the intra-plate seismic activity is highest along a belt inland. For ten years afterwards it falls off in this belt, but rises on both sides along the Philippine Sea and Japan Sea coasts. Then it becomes low and remains low throughout the whole region until fifty to thirty years before the next inter-plate event, as shown by Utsu in 1974. An intermittent underthrusting drag exerted by the Philippine Sea plate seems to control the intra-plate seismicity, which partly takes up the relative plate motion as internal deformation. When a great inter-plate earthquake occurs, tectonic stress is released and seismic activity falls off in the central belt. The breaking of the plate boundary temporarily weakens the coupling between the two plates along the shallower part of the interface, which gently dips toward the Japan Sea coast. The decoupling causes stress concentration in the deeper part and results in increased seismic activity along the Japan Sea coast. The activity along the Philippine Sea coast may be interpreted as aftershock activity.     

Focal mechanism solutions and dynamic parameters of earthquakes in the eastern Himalayas and northern Burma

Focal-mechanism solutions of four earthquakes in the eastern Himalayas and northern Burma are determined using the first motion of compressional waves. Two possible solutions thus obtained for each event reveal steeply dipping fault with predominantly strike-slip motion. The stress directions inferred from the focal mechanism solutions are interpreted in the light of predictions of the plate tectonics theory, viz., the underthrusting of the Indian plate in the Burma region in an easterly direction.Dynamic parameters (seismic moment, apparent stress and average dislocations) are obtained using the corrected spectra of Love waves. The earthquakes are found to possess low seismic moment and apparent stress values. A comparison of these estimates with values for intraplate earthquakes is given. It is suggested that these earthquake might be a consequence of a nonhomogeneous rupture process.     

Seismogenic Tectonics and Dynamics of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang Earthquake in Yunnan,China

In the southern South–North Seismic Zone, China, seismic activity in the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan increased from December 2010, and eventually a destructive earthquake of Ms5.9 occurred near Yingjiang town on 10 March 2011. The focal mechanism and hypocenter location of the mainshock suggest that the Dayingjiang Fault was the site of the mainshock rupture. However, most of foreshocks and all aftershocks recorded by a portable seismic array located close to the mainshock occurred along the N–S-striking Sudian Fault, indicating that this fault had an important influence on these shocks. Coulomb stress calculations show that three strong(magnitude ≥5.0) earthquakes that occurred in the study region in 2008 increased the coulomb stress along the plane parallel to the Dayingjiang Fault. This supports the Dayingjiang Fault, and not the Sudian Fault, as the seismogenic fault of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang earthquake. The strong earthquakes in 2008 also increased the Coulomb stress at depths of ≤5 km along the entire Sudian Fault, and by doing so increased the shallow seismic activity along the fault. This explains why the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2011 Yingjiang earthquake were located mostly on the Sudian Fault where it cuts the shallow crust. The earthquakes at the intersection of the Sudian and Dayingjiang faults are distributed mainly along a belt that dips to the southeast at ~40°, suggesting that the Dayingjiang Fault in the mainshock area also dips to the southeast at ~40°.     

Strong earthquakes associated with high amplitude daily geomagnetic variations

In this work, we attempt to quantify forces that result from the interaction between the induced Sq-variation currents in the Earth’s lithosphere and the regional Earth’s magnetic field, in order to assess its influence on the tectonic stress field and on seismic activity. The study area is the Sinai Peninsula, a seismically active region where both seismic and magnetic data are available. We show that both short-term and long-term magnetic changes correlate with the seismic activity extending to this area in other previous studies. We also analyze a set of large earthquakes and magnetic data from observatories around the world to deduce a relationship between earthquake magnitude and maximum distance up to which precursory variations of the magnetic field are observed.     

从断层中心论向块体中心论转变--论活动块体在地震活动中的作用

讨论活动块体在地震活动中的作用。板缘地震在空间上呈线性分布,而中国大陆地震在空间上呈片状分布。大陆强震往往涉及两个以上方向断层的活动,且强震往往沿块体边界迁移或在其两侧断层上对迁。一些强震前后由中小地震震源机制解反映的Ｐ轴方向往往发生近９０°的转向,这种现象难以用区域应力方向变化来解释,但可从块体活动角度出发,用块体两个边界断层的先后错动来解释。地震前异常的远程效应、震后烈度异常分布图像以及地震序列特点等也显示了活动块体的作用。不同地区由地震活动性推测的块体活动方式有所差别,其原因可能和区域主压应力轴与块体两个边界断层走向的夹角不同有关。据此认为,在分析中国地震活动时要把视角从以活动断层为中心转变为以活动块体为中心     

Investigations of earthquake probabilities in the Indian Ocean seismic belts

Gumbel's extreme-value theory is used to estimate the probability of occurrence and average return periods for earthquakes in the Indian Ocean seismic belts. The nature of seismic activity, and annual and 50 year maximum magnitudes of earthquakes are also discussed. The earthquake occurrence model of autocorrelation lends support for the periodicity of the most probable earthquake in these belts. The percentage probability of recurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above has been estimated for the region mentioned.     

Precursory swarm and its application for long range earthquake forecasting in Taiwan region

At trenches a few earthquake swarms of low magnitude have been observed before the medium size earthquake swarms. The first swarm was designated as precursory swarm and the second as mainshocks. Seismicity fluctuations before six such mainshocks events of medium size earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from 5.3 to 6.1 occurring in the east belt of Taiwan region have been discussed. A precursory gap between the precursory swarm and mainshock events has been observed. The duration of the gaps increases with magnitudes of the mainshocks suggesting a causal relationship between the two. Regression equations between the largest magnitude in the precursory swarms, the largest mainshock magnitude and the precusory gaps have been given.     

Seismotectonics of Portugal and its adjacent area in the Atlantic

New elements on the seismicity of Portugal and new focal-mechanism solutions of earthquakes with epicentres situated off the coast of the Portuguese mainland and in the Azores region are presented. Historical seismicity data show that in the territory of the Portuguese mainland there are active faults that are responsible for earthquakes that have caused important damage and many casualties. However, most of the intraplate earthquakes with epicentres situated in the Portuguese mainland or near the shore are normally of small magnitude and this renders difficult their interpretation in the light of focal mechanisms. A solution for one earthquake, with magnitude 5 and epicentre at the Nazaré submarine canyon, is presented.Southwestwards of Cape St. Vincent there is an important seismic zone responsible for high-magnitude earthquakes such as that of 1 November 1755. This zone is situated in the region where the extension of the Messejana fault into the ocean joins with the Azores-Gibraltar fault.The seismicity of the area situated between the western coast of the Portuguese mainland and the Azores increases approximately along the 15°W meridian, from the latitude of the Azores-Gibraltar fault up to 44°N. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes with epicentres situated along this line show very similar solutions.The interpretation of the focal mechanism solutions of the earthquakes with epicentres situated in the studied area shows that the stress field trends approximately NW-SE. It is assumed that this stress field results from the interaction of the Eurasian and African plates; however, this direction is not maintained in the Azores region.     

断块构造|活动断块构造与地震活动

张文佑院士是我国最杰出的构造地质学家和大地构造学家,他提出和倡导的地质构造力学分析和历史分析相结合及断块构造理论符合当代构造地质和构造运动研究的新方向。断块构造是地球构造运动最基本的型式,板块构造是全球范围内的岩石圈构造,是最高一级的岩石圈断块构造。活动断块是现今构造运动最基本的型式,它既控制主要活动构造带和地震活动带的分布,也控制不同地区地震活动特征的差异。断块边界构造带是在构造变形和运动场中的不连续变形带,应力在此释放,应变在此局部化,位移在此发生,其差异活动最为强烈,因此,断块边界构造带是强震发生带,其活动性质会控制震源断层的特性。大地震孕育和发生在边界活动构造带的某些特殊部位,对其成核的构造和物理过程尚需深入进行研究。要特别注意断块整体性活动对地震活动的控制作用,断块的这种整体性活动与一定时期内地震活动主体地区分布有密切关系,所以,在活动构造研究中,要把断块的整体性活动与活动构造带的个体活动结合起来。     

孕震构造块体与相应地震区划分方法

可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。     

Seismic activity associated with the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, Japan

The Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate overlap and subduct underneath the Kanto region, central Japan, causing complex seismic activities in the upper mantle. In this research, we used a map selection tool with a graphic display to create a data set for earthquakes caused by the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate that are easily determined. As a result, we determined that there are at least four earthquake groups present in the upper mantle above the Pacific plate. Major seismic activity (Group 1) has been observed throughout the Kanto region and is considered to originate in the uppermost part of mantle in the subducted Philippine Sea plate, judging from the formation of the focal region and comparison with the 3D structure of seismic velocity. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes is characterized by the down-dip compression. A second earthquake layer characterized by down-dip extension (Group 2), below the earthquakes in this group, is also noted. The focal region for those earthquakes is considered to be located at the lower part of the slab mantle, and the Pacific plate located directly below is considered to influence the activity. Earthquakes located at the shallowest part (Group 3) form a few clusters distributed directly above the Group 1 focal region. Judging from the characteristics of later phases in these earthquakes and comparing against the 3D structure of seismic velocity, the focal regions for the earthquakes are considered to be located near the upper surface of the slab. Another earthquake group (Group 4) originates further below Group 2; it is difficult to consider these earthquakes within a single slab. The seismic activities representing the upper area of the Philippine Sea plate are Group 3. This paper proposes a slab geometry model that is substantially different from conventional models by strictly differentiating the groups.     

Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment

Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very difficult or impossible to overcome. The problem is that most of these methods cannot be adequately tested and evaluated either because of (a) lack of a precise definition of “prediction” and/or (b) shortage of data for meaningful statistical verification. This is not the case for the pattern recognition algorithm M8 designed in 1984 for prediction of great, Magnitude 8, earthquakes, hence its name. By 1986, the algorithm was rescaled for applications aimed at smaller magnitude earthquakes, down to M5+ range, and since then it has become a useful tool for systematic monitoring of seismic activity in a number of test seismic regions worldwide. After confirmed predictions of both the 1988 Spitak (Armenia) and the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) earthquakes, a “rigid test” to evaluate the efficiency of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique has been designed. Since 1991, each half-year, the algorithm M8 alone and in combination with its refinement MSc has been applied in a real-time prediction mode to seismicity of the entire Earth, and this test outlines, where possible, the areas in the two approximations where magnitude 8.0+ and 7.5+ earthquakes are most likely to occur before the next update. The results of this truly global 20-year-old experiment are indirect confirmations of the existing common features of both the predictability and the diverse behavior of the Earth’s naturally fractal lithosphere. The statistics achieved to date prove (with confidence above 99 %) rather high efficiency of the M8 and M8-MSc predictions limited to intermediate-term middle- and narrow-range accuracy. These statistics support the following general conclusions—(1) precursory seismic patterns do exist; (2) the size of an area where precursory seismic patterns show up is much larger than that of the source zone of the incipient target earthquake; (3) many precursory seismic patterns appear to be similar, even in regions of fundamentally different tectonic environments; and (4) some precursory seismic patterns are analogous to those in advance of extreme catastrophic events in other complex nonlinear systems (e.g., magnetic storms, solar flares, “starquakes”, etc.)—that are of high importance for further searches of the improved earthquake forecast/prediction algorithms and methods.     

印度—欧亚板块碰撞变形区的大地震时空分布特征与迁移规律

印度板块与欧亚板块在新生代期间的持续碰撞和挤压过程导致亚洲大陆发生了强烈的弥散式板内变形,并形成了一个以贝加尔湖为顶点,以喜马拉雅带为底边的近似三角形的变形区与强震活动区,即新-藏三角区。基于固体刚塑性变形平面结构,结合滑移线场网络模型,对该区历史强震活动的大范围离散式空间分布特点进行了分析解释。结合1505-1976年以来历史强震空间迁移的实例,归纳了该区历史强震活动与地震应变释放从印度板块边界→新-藏地块→两侧大陆的顺序性及定向性迁移特征,并根据对地震空间迁移规律的认识,进一步探讨了区域未来强震危险性问题。结果显示,从2000-2018年间,印度板块边界和新-藏三角区已多次发生M7.9~9.1大地震,但其东、西两侧的区域大陆地区却异常平静,没发生过7级以上大地震。依照区域强震活动的顺序性迁移特点,推测在未来几到几十年,亚洲大陆东部与中部以及喜马拉雅带东段等区域的大地震危险性较大。      

Characterisation of the seismological pattern in a slowly deforming intraplate region: Central and western France

We analyzed the seismicity of central and western France, using historical data, a compilation of all recorded earthquakes from 1962 to 2002 (4574 events, relocated), and all published focal mechanisms (119 focal solutions). The aim is to understand what are the causes of earthquakes and stress accumulation in a slowly deforming intraplate region. The distribution of earthquakes and focal mechanisms is first correlated with recognized faults, geological structures and tomographic images. Then, in order to better understand the distribution of hypocenters and seek deeper crustal sources for stress accumulation, Euler solutions are computed from the available Bouguer anomaly data. The analysis of the obtained pattern for heat flow values, provides a better understanding of the concentration of seismicity in some particular zones.Two different behaviors of this slowly deforming intraplate region are evidenced. One is linked to the presence of a hot spot under the Massif Central, the other to reactivation of the Hercynian structural heritage. Our results highlight that several possible sources for earthquake clustering can be invoked in central–western France.     

The devastating Muzaffarabad earthquake of 8 October 2005: New insights into Himalayan seismicity and tectonics

The recent earthquake of 8 October 2005 in the Muzaffarabad region in western Himalaya destroyed several parts of Pakistan and the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The earthquake of magnitude 7.6 claimed more than 80,000 lives, clearly exposing the poor standards of building construction — a major challenge facing the highly populated, earthquake prone, third world nations today. In this paper, we examine variations in the stress field, seismicity patterns, seismic source character, tectonic setting, plate motion velocities, GPS results, and the geodynamic factors relating to the geometry of the underlying subsurface structure and its role in generation of very large earthquakes. Focal mechanism solutions of the Muzaffarabad earthquake and its aftershocks are found to have steep dip angles comparable to the Indian intra-plate shield earthquakes rather than the typical Himalayan earthquakes that are characterized by shallow angle northward dips. A low p-value of 0.9 is obtained for this earthquake from the decay pattern of 110 aftershocks, which is comparable to that of the 1993 Latur earthquake in the Indian shield — the deadliest Stable Continental Region (SCR) earthquake till date. Inversion of focal mechanisms of the Harvard CMT catalogue indicates distinct stress patterns in the Muzaffarabad region, seemingly governed by an overturned Himalayan thrust belt configuration that envelops this region, adjoined by the Pamir and Hindukush regions. Recent developments in application of seismological tools like the receiver function technique have enabled accurate mapping of the dipping trends of the Moho and Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) of Indian lithosphere beneath southern Tibet. These have significantly improved our understanding of the collision process, the mechanism of Himalayan orogeny and uplift of the Tibetan plateau, besides providing vital constraints on the seismic hazard threat posed by the Himalaya. New ideas have also emerged through GPS, macroseismic investigations, paleoseismology and numerical modeling approaches. While many researchers suggest that the Himalayan front is already overdue for several 8.0 magnitude earthquakes, some opine that most of the front may not really be capable of sustaining the stress accumulation required for generation of great earthquakes. We propose that the occurrence of great earthquakes like those of 1897 in Shillong and 1950 in Assam have a strong correlation with their proximity to multiple plate junctions conducive for enormous stress build up, like the eastern Himalayan syntaxis comprising the junction of the India, Eurasia plates, and the Burma, Sunda micro-plates.     

青藏高原板内地震震源深度分布规律及其成因

青藏高原板内地震以浅源地震为主, 下地壳基本上没有地震, 地震震源多集中在15~40 km的深度范围, 主要在中地壳内, 呈似层状弥散分布.其中30~33 km深度是一个优势层, 与壳内分层有关.总体上青藏高原南、北部的震源面略呈相向倾斜特征.70~100 km深度区间出现了比较集中的震级较小的地震, 可能与壳幔过渡带的拆离作用有关.高原内部的正断层系与板内地震密切相关, 是板内浅源地震的主控构造.总之, 青藏高原地震震源沿着活动的上地壳脆性层与软弱层之间的脆-韧性过渡带分布.这些板内地震活动属于大陆动力学过程, 与板块碰撞和板块俯冲无关.初步认为青藏高原浅层到深层多震层的成因分别是韧性基底与脆性盖层、韧性下地壳与脆性上地壳、韧性下地壳与脆性上地幔的韧-脆性转换、拆离和解耦的产物.      

The atmospheric water as a triggering factor for earthquakes in the central Virginia seismic zone

Even though central Virginia is far from the nearest plate boundaries, the region is well-known for minor-to-moderate shocks, which have occurred frequently since at least the eighteenth century. Many of its people have experienced small earthquakes, while infrequent larger ones have caused damage. The largest destructive earthquake (magnitude 5.8) in this seismic zone was recorded in August 2011. Smaller earthquakes that cause little or no damage are felt each year or two. It is difficult to link the earthquakes of this zone to known small faults which are numerous, deeply buried and do not show up at the surface. The mean earthquake depth since 1960 is 6.7 km. On the other hand, central Virginia is a big collector and transporter of precipitation water, which flows to the Atlantic Ocean through the James River and its tributaries. There are about 2,000 abandoned mining sites in Virginia with underground openings that can facilitate the interception and conveyance of surface water. This paper presents evidence that seismic activity in certain zones can be associated clearly with the hydrological effects of abundant precipitation. Such effects can increase tectonic stress, which surpasses the marginal amount when an earthquake occurs. We analyze the cross-correlation between precipitation or water discharge in the rivers and earthquake occurrence in the central Virginia seismic zone. This correlation is examined both over a long-term span (57–92 years) and with regard to individual cases in which earthquakes have followed the occurrence of intense hydrological phenomena such as torrential rainfall or hurricanes. As we probe for a correlation between earthquake time series for central Virginia and the monthly precipitation series at hydrometeorological stations located in the zone, we observe that the best cross-correlation is obtained for a time period of 3 months. The same time period applies to certain historical earthquakes that were preceded by large amounts of precipitation. These results support the hydroseismicity hypothesis, which points to the role of water in the generation of intraplate seismicity.