Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Ni?a in 2022/23?

The Northern Hemisphere(NH) often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Ni?a winters. In 2022, a third-year La Ni?a event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022. Under such a significant global climate signal, whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed, despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric ...     

地壳隔热密封破坏——近100 a气候变化的"发病机制"

皮肤真皮下面的皮下脂肪组织具有比皮肤更强的热绝缘作用,使机体内部的热不易传导到皮肤表面而散失,这对在低温条件下保持体温不致于过低是很重要的。通过对人体皮下脂肪组织的热绝缘功能、中国长沙马王堆一号汉墓与北京明十三陵定陵发掘、地壳热绝缘层破坏大地热流增大观测上的证明和支持、地球与金星环境、近100a全球年平均气温的变化与大气中CO2浓度年增量和全球平均SST变化等进行对比分析,得出地球作为一个整体,地壳中的化石燃料有类似人体皮下脂肪组织热绝缘作用,油气、煤炭就是地球的“皮下脂肪组织”的结论。人类无休止的大规模开采矿产,使热绝缘功能减弱,大地热流增大使地球内部热量过多传至地表,导致地温、海温增高,这正是全球气候变暖的主要原因。并对如何修复地壳热绝缘层提出了解决办法。     

On the Ningaloo Niño/Niña

Using both observational and reanalysis data, evolution processes of a regional climate phenomenon off Western Australia named recently “Ningaloo Niño (Niña)” are studied in detail. It is also shown that the Ningaloo Niño (Niña) has significant impacts on the precipitation over Australia. The Ningaloo Niño (Niña), which is associated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and atmospheric anomalies off the western coast of Australia, peaks during austral summer and is classified into two types based on the difference in the evolution process. The first type called a locally amplified mode develops through an intrinsic unstable air–sea interaction off the western coast of Australia; an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generated by positive (negative) SST anomalies forces northerly (southerly) alongshore wind anomalies, which induce coastal downwelling (upwelling) anomalies, and enhance the positive (negative) SST anomalies further. The second type called a non-locally amplified mode is associated with coastally trapped waves originating in either the western tropical Pacific, mostly related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or the northern coast of Australia. Positive (negative) SST anomalies in both modes are associated with an anomalous low (high) off the western coast of Australia. The sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the locally amplified mode are regionally confined with a cell-like pattern and produce a sharp offshore pressure gradient along the western coast of Australia, whereas those in the non-locally amplified mode tend to show a zonally elongated pattern. The difference is found to be related to conditions of the continental SLP modulated by the Australian summer monsoon and/or the Southern Annular Mode.     

基于EOS/MODIS的台风"浣熊"云顶相态分析

借鉴MODIS云检测算法的地表生态分型和可信度思想,结合可见光和红外两方面的检测项目,介绍了为云相态分析提供输入的晴空像元检测方法。给出了多光谱判识云相态的综合流程,反演出2002年6月台风“浣熊”的云顶粒子相态分布,并结合1.38卷云检测与MODIS通道1、4、6合成图进行了分析。     

On the Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Predictability Problems Involving "On-Off" Switches

The lower bound of maximum predictable time can be formulated into a constrained nonlinear opti- mization problem, and the traditional solutions to this problem are the filtering method and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Usually, the CNOP method is implemented with the help of a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint method, which is named the ADJ-CNOP. However, with the increasing improvement of actual prediction models, more and more physical processes are taken into consideration in models in the form of parameterization, thus giving rise to the on-off switch problem, which tremendously affects the effectiveness of the conventional gradient descent algorithm based on the ad- joint method. In this study, we attempted to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) to the CNOP method, named GA-CNOP, to solve the predictability problems involving on-off switches. As the precision of the filtering method depends uniquely on the division of the constraint region, its results were taken as benchmarks, and a series of comparisons between the ADJ-CNOP and the GA-CNOP were performed for the modified Lorenz equation. Results show that the GA-CNOP can always determine the accurate lower bound of maximum predictable time, even in non-smooth cases, while the ADJ-CNOP, owing to the effect of on-off switches, often yields the incorrect lower bound of maximum predictable time. Therefore, in non-smooth cases, using GAs to solve predictability problems is more effective than using the conventional optimization algorithm based on gradients, as long as genetic operators in GAs are properly configured.     

Improvement of 6–15 Day Precipitation Forecasts Using a Time-Lagged Ensemble Method简

A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.     

Analysis of Pseudomomentum Wave-Activity Density in a Heavy Rainfall Event in East China简

Taking into account moisture in virtue of general potential temperature,the author derive a three-dimensional（3D） pseudomomentum wave-activity relation for the moist atmosphere from the primitive equations in Cartesian coordinates using the Momentum-Casimir method.Since the wave-activity relation is constructed in an ageostrophic and non-hydrostatic dynamical framework,it may be applicable to diagnosing the evolution and propagation of mesoscale systems leading to heavy rainfall.The theoretical analysis shows that,besides the local change of wave-activity flux divergence and source or sink,the wave-activity relation includes two additional forcing terms.The first is the zonal gradient of difference between general potential temperature and potential temperature perturbations,and the second is the covariance of the solenoid and gradient of water vapor,denoting the direct influence of moisture on wave-activity density.The wave-activity density was applied to a heavy precipitation event occurring in the Jianghuai region of China.The calculation showed that the wave-activity density was consistent with 6-h accumulated precipitation observations,in terms of both spatial distribution and temporal tendency.This suggested that the disturbance represented by wave-activity density was closely related to the heavy precipitation.Although the wave-activity flux divergence and the covariance of the solenoid and gradient of water vapor made the primary contribution to the local change of wave-activity density,the covariance was more remarkable.The zonal gradient of difference between general potential temperature and potential temperature perturbations made a weaker contribution to the waveactivity density.     

去除EOS/MODIS 1B数据中"弯弓"效应的方法

分析了中分辨率成像光谱仪EOS／MODIS的扫描方式,在此基础上研究了EOS／MODIS1B数据集“弯弓”效应的成因。对EOS／MODIS1B数据02级产品HDF文件的格式进行了探讨,并以250m分辨率资料为例,在2002年7月13日10时的MODIS资料中选取鄱阳湖以北部分地区,读取其数据进行插值、Lambert投影、重采样等处理,从而消除了影响资料使用的“弯弓”效应,同时也完成了对EOS／MODIS数据的几何校正,取得了一定的效果,为EOS／MODIS遥感资料在今后得以广泛应用作了有益的尝试。     

Mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM简

The mechanisms involved in the variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） are studied using a 2000-yr control simulation of the coupled Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model （FOAM）.This study identifies a coupled mode between SST and surface heat flux in the North Atlantic at the decadal timescale,as well as a forcing mode of surface heat flux at the interannual timescale.The coupled mode is regulated by AMOC through meridional heat transport.The increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic weakens the AMOC approximately 10 yr later,and the weakened AMOC in turn decreases SST and sea surface salinity.The decreased SST results in an increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic,thus forming a positive feedback loop.Meanwhile,the weakened AMOC weakens northward heat transport and therefore lowers subsurface temperature approximately 19 yr later,which prevents the AMOC from weakening.In the forcing mode,the surface heat flux leads AMOC by approximately 4 yr.     

对μA μB是凸模糊度的证明

本文直接从定义出发证明:若μ_A和μ_B是凸模糊度,则μ_A μ_B也是凸模糊度。方法是先把μ_A和μ_B分成几种情况.然后逐一加以证明,这样可得出μ_A μ_B在一般情况下是凸模糊度的结论。     

The Relationship between the El Nin o/La Nin a Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric OscillationsPart I: The Four Oscillations简

The first leading modes of the interannual variations in low-level circulation over the North and South Pacific are the Northern Oscillation （NO） and Southern Oscillation （SO）,which are oscillations in sea level pressure anomalies （SLPAs）between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.The second leading modes are the North Pacific Oscillation （NPO） and the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,which reflect oscillations between the subtropics and the high and middle latitudes.The transition chains of these four oscillations were investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP-NCAR） reanalysis data.The general pattern of the transition chain between the NO and NPO was from the negative phase of the NO （NO-） to the positive phase of the NPO （NPO＋）,then from NO＋ to NPO-to NO-.The whole transition chain took about 4-6 years.The general pattern and period of the transition between the SO and AAO were similar to those between the NO and NPO.In addition,the transition chains between the NO and NPO,and the SO and AAO,were almost simultaneous.The transition chains of the four oscillations were found to be closely connected,with the eastward propagations of SLPAs occurring along both sides of the Equator.     

The Limiting Effect of Deep Soil Water on Evapotranspiration of a Subtropical Coniferous Plantation Subjected to Seasonal Drought简

Seasonal drought is a common occurrence in humid climates.The year 2003 was the driest year during the period 1985-2011 in southeastern China.The objective of this study was to elucidate the impact of the exceptional drought in 2003,compared with eddy flux measurements during 2004-11,on the dynamics of evapotranspiration （ET） and related factors,as well as their underlying mechanisms,in a subtropical coniferous plantation in southeastern China.It was found that daily ET decreased from 5.34 to 1.84 mm during the intensive drought period and recovered to 4.80 mm during the subsquent recovering drought period.Path analysis indicated that ET was mainly determined by canopy conductance and deep soil water content （50 cm） during the intensive drought and recovering drought periods,respectively.The canopy conductance offset the positive effect of air vapor pressure deficit on ET when suffering drought stress,while the canopy conductance enhanced the positive effect of air temperature on ET during the late growing season.Because the fine roots of this plantation are mainly distributed in shallow soil,and the soil water in the upper 40 cm did not satisfy the demand for ET,stomatal closure and defoliation were evident as physiological responses to drought stress.     

Locally and remotely forced atmospheric circulation anomalies of Ningaloo Niño/Niña

A recently identified climate mode called Ningaloo Niño (Niña) is associated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies off the west coast of Australia and negative (positive) sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the overlying atmosphere. By conducting a series of numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, generation mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation anomalies accompanied by Ningaloo Niño/Niña are examined. Even when SST is allowed to vary interannually only in the eastern South Indian Ocean, negative (positive) SLP anomalies are formed off the west coast of Australia in Ningaloo Niño (Niña) years, supporting the existence of local ocean–atmosphere interaction. When the model is forced by SST anomalies outside of the eastern South Indian Ocean, negative (positive) SLP anomalies are also generated in Ningaloo Niño (Niña) years owing to a Matsuno–Gill type response to atmospheric convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific. It is found that the latter impact is stronger in the current atmospheric general circulation model. Regarding climatic impacts, it is shown that Ningaloo Niño (Niña) induces wet (dry) anomalies over the northwestern part of Australia even when SST anomalies outside of the eastern South Indian Ocean are excluded from the SST forcing.