A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere with observations part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic

Abstract

The seasonal cycle of the GLAS/U of Maryland GCM is analysed in terms of the behaviour of the monthly and seasonal mean fields and the structure of the annual harmonic. (The stationary and transient eddies are treated in a companion paper.)

Both polar regions at upper levels are much too cold in the annual mean, leading to excessive zonal winds above 200 mb. The problem is present in all seasons, but is most severe in local winter. A compensating belt of warm temperatures at lower latitudes is found. It is argued that the inclusion of gravity wave drag is not necessarily the solution to this problem.

The simulated annual harmonics of Northern Hemisphere sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights are realistically intense over the eastern continents and weak over the eastern oceans. Problems in the simulation include the anomalously deep Aleutian low and the low values of the height over Europe, both occurring in winter.

The simulation of the annual harmonic in sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights in the Southern Hemisphere is realistic. The GCM fails to show the observed amplitude of the annual harmonic in 200‐mb temperature over Antarctica.

The GCM precipitation is too intense over land, particularly in summer. It is suggested that the problem is related to the parametrizations of moist convection and the boundary layer. The seasonal patterns of precipitation over the western tropical Pacific are generally realistic.

There is no evidence that the GCM systematically underestimates momentum flux convergence.     

Winter climate anomalies in Europe and their associated circulation at 500 hPa

Regional anomalies of the surface climate over Europe are defined by a simultanous EOF-analysis of the normalized monthly mean sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation fields of 100 winters (December–February, 1887–1986) at 40 stations. The monthly amplitudes of the first EOF (about 25% of the total variance) are used as an index for the monthly winter climate anomaly. They characterize a high (low) pressure cell over central Europe associated with a positive (negative) temperature and precipitation anomaly over northern (central-southern) Europe as indicated by a northward (southward) shift of the tail end of the cross-Atlantic cyclone track. These patterns resemble the phenomenological anticyclonic (cyclonic) Grosswetter classification and the European blocking (enhanced zonal flow) regime. The second EOF is of similar magnitude and gives latitudinal corrections to these two basic flow regimes. The joint probability distribution of both amplitudes shows a weak bimodality mainly associated with the first EOF. Further insight into the underlying physical processes of the climate anomaly patterns in Europe is obtained from the extended Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics of the barotropic transient eddy-mean flow interaction (Hoskins et al. 1983) and the stationary wave propagation (Plumb 1985). The diagnostics confined to the barotropic components and applied to the regression and the composite anomaly fields of the transient and stationary eddy flows of the 500 hPa geopotential (1946–87, north of 20°N) leads to the following results: (1) The bandpass filtered transient eddy variances of the 500 hPa geopotential show a shift of the cross-Atlantic storm track: In high (low) pressure situations over Europe the cross-Atlantic storm track intensity is enhanced (reduced) and its tail end is shifted northward (remains zonal); the North Pacific storm track extends further (less) eastward and thus closer to the west coast of North America. (2) The extreme high pressure system over Europe tends to be supported by an anomalous transient eddy forcing of the mean flow stream-function: it enhances the zonal wind to its north and generates anticyclonic vorticity about 10° upstream from its center. In the low pressure composite the anomalous cyclonic vorticity is generated reducing the zonal flow to its north. (3) The occurrence (lack) of a strong eastward stationary wave activity flux over the Atlantic is associated with the high (low) pressure situations over Europe. Finally, a positive feedback is conjectured between the stationary wavetrain modifying the tail end of the cross-Atlantic storm track and the transient eddies intensifying this anomaly.     

Investigations on variations of the subtropical high in the Western Pacific during historic times

In this paper the 500 mb circulation field over East Asia was reconstructed by means of a stepwise regression technique, based on the relationship between summer (June to August) rainfall in China and 500 mb level heights. As a result of this study, three indices for the subtropical high, the longitude of the west border, and the latitude of the north border and intensity for the period AD 1471–1980 were extracted from reconstructed 500 mb level heights.The power spectrum analysis was carried out to investigate the variation of subtropical high indices for last 500 yr; it is shown that the prominent cycles are 22-, 36-, 55-yr and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), among these the latter is more significant.The long-term variations of the 10 yr average 500 mb level heights and subtropical high indices are examined in relation to climate change; it was determined that the longitudinal variation of subtropical high plays an important role in the wetness variations over China.     

Investigations of the 500mb level in relation to the general circulation

Summary The redistribution of kinetic energy in the 500mbar level is studied for 1966 as well as for 1967. The total kinetic energy is split up in three parts: a) the energy due to the mean flow, b) the energy due to eddies with a period of time longer than a month and c) the energy due to eddies with a period of time less than a month but longer than one day.The transport of these energies takes place in formally three different ways, namely by the mean flow, by longperiod and shortperiod eddies (or monthly and daily eddies).Both the transports in zonal and meridional direction are studied. As will be shown in section 2, this yields 16 transportterms. It turns out that for the 500mbar level in the region from 100°W to 30°E and from 30°N to 65°N and based on geostrophic approximated winds: a) the longperiod eddies are important, b) the role of the longperiod eddies as well as the role of the shortperiod eddies decreases with increasing latitude and c) the zonal transports and the divergence of those transports are mostly larger than the meridional transports, and the divergence of the meridional transports.

---

Untersuchungen der 500 mbar-Fläche in bezug auf die allgemeine Zirkulation,

Zusammenfassung Die Verteilung der kinetischen Energie im 500mb-Niveau wird für die Jahre 1966 und 1967 untersucht. Die gesamte kinetische Energie wird dabei in drei Teile zergliedert: a) die kinetische Energie der mittleren Strömung, b) die Energie aus länger als einen Monat andauernden Wirbeln und c) die Energie aus kürzer als einen Monat, aber länger als einen Tag andauernden Wirbelelementen.Der Transport dieser Energien erfolgt formal auf drei verschiedenen Wegen, nämlich durch die mittlere Strömung, durch lang- und kurzperiodige Wirbelelemente (Turbulenzelemente von Monatsdauer bzw. von Tagesdauer). Es werden die Transporte in zonaler und in meridionaler Richtung untersucht; daraus ergeben sich 16 Transportterme. Für die Region von 100°W bis 30°E und 30°N bis 65°N erweist sich unter Zugrundelegung geostrophisch approximierter Winde, a) daß langperiodige Wirbel von Bedeutung sind, b) daß die Bedeutung langperiodiger wie auch kurzperiodiger Wirbelelemente mit zunehmender geographischer Breite abnimmt und c) daß die zonalen Transporte und ihre Divergenz meistens größer sind als die meridionalen Transporte und die Divergenz meridionaler Transporte.

---

---

With 25 Figures     

东亚对流层上部和平流层中下部大气环流的初步研究

根据1957—1961平东亚九十余个探空站的记录,对东亚对流层中上部和平流层中下部的大气环流特点作了初步的分析,得到如下几点结果: 1.在冬季,对流层中上部的气压场和风场特点和过去研究的结论基本一致。在夏季,高原部分的环流特征却和过去的结论不同,夏季在高原上对流层中部出现微弱的气旋性环流,但在300毫巴已在反气旋的控制之下,而且反气旋的势力愈往上去愈强,在100毫巴处高原上空的反气旋达到最大强度,这是与青藏高原的热力性质有关系的。此外,从1月到7月东亚对流层上部的气压场和风场变化甚大,在中高纬度气压场有相反的趋势,并且副热带高压脊线从冬季的北纬15°位置移到夏季的北纬28°。 2.在东亚沿海,中纬度的几个测站在平流层中部的温度年变程呈双峰型,最高温度出现在1月和6—7月。在低纬度温度的年变程也呈双峰,但位相与中纬度相反。低纬温度年变化特点与辐射有关;中纬度的温度年变化,经过计算表明,1月的高峰与温度平流有密切关系。 3.东亚对流层中上部和平流层中下部风场的季节变化,与对流层中下部一样显著。从夏到冬的环流季节变化过程,高低空有一致性,而从冬到夏的环流季节变化过程,高低空变化并不一致。     

Specification of monthly mean anomalies of surface air temperature in Canada and Alaska

Abstract

Anomalies of monthly mean surface temperature observed at 55 stations in Canada and 13 in Alaska from 1951 through 1980 are related to concurrent anomalies of monthly mean 700‐mb height at a network of 107 grid points in North America and the surrounding oceans. The data are screened by a stepwise forward selection procedure to yield multiple regression equations for specifying the monthly mean temperature anomaly at each city and for each month from the field of simultaneous 700‐mb heights plus the previous month's local temperature anomaly. On the average, the specification equations explain 70% of the temperature variance and select as predictors approxiamtely 2 heights to the west of the reference station, 1.5 heights in the vicinity, 1 height to the east, and 0.5 previous temperatures.

Most of this paper describes various properties of the specification equations and related atmospheric characteristics on a regional, seasonal and month‐to‐month basis. Five statistical features are mapped for the months of January, April, July and October, and marked regional differences are noted. The above features are then averaged for the entire region and graphed month by month; the annual cycle of other properties is also described. Systematic spatial and temporal variations in the characteristics of temperature variability, persistence, correlation with height, and specification equations are illustrated.     

应用K均值聚类法对东亚各自然天气季节500毫巴候平均环流的分型试验

利用自然正交函数法划分了东亚自然天气季节以后,本文应用K均值聚类法对各个自然天气季节内部的500毫巴候平均环流进行了分型试验,得到了一些有意义的结果。     

Tropospheric ozone profiles near equator and meteorological parameters

This is a study of ozone profile shapes in the 800 to 100 millibar range obtained with balloonsonde data over Trivandrum (8.5° N) during 1975–76 and possible associations of these shapes to some meteorological parameters.Whereas monotonic ozone profiles were noted with clear weather conditions, those associated with cloud cover show three basic anomalous features. Some bulges of increased values are observed in the range of 800 to 500 mb. In the 500–100 mb range, short range or localized cloud cover or passing weather disturbances are associated with fluctuation patterns in the ozone profile and an average depleted value of ozone. The fluctuations are also associated with changing wind speed and direction at these heights.Possible causative mechanisms are discussed. Lightning associated with thundestorm, producing additional CO and NO are sought to interpret the bulges at lower heights. The decrease in values as well as the fluctuation patterns are suggested as due to possible incursion of water vapour from troposphere to stratosphere in the tropical region and dynamical effects associated with it.     

Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential heights back to the late 19th century

Summary In this study the authors have developed a statistical method and have reconstructed Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa heights back to the late 19th century using one temperature and three sea level pressure (SLP) data sets. First, the relationship between ERA40 500 hPa heights and surface temperature and SLP was screened using stepwise multiple regression based on the calibration period of 1958–2002 (1998/2000 according to the availability of SLP data). All selected predictors (temperature and SLP) were significant and their variance contribution was greater than 1%. On average, there were 8.1 variables retained in the final regression equations. Second, the regression equations were applied to compute the 500 hPa height through to the late 19th century for the whole Northern Hemisphere. As the SLP and temperature coverage improved over time, the number of predictors decreased by about 1 in the most recent periods, and the root mean squared error decreased by about 0.8 m. A leave-one-out cross-validation method was used to test the skill and stability of the regression models. The reduction of error during the cross-validation period of 1958–1997 varied from 0.33 to 0.56, depending on the SLP data. Reconstructions were also checked using NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa heights from January 1949 to December 1957, and compared with the historical reconstruction over Europe. Reconstructions show high consistency with these independent data sets. Generally, the reconstruction provides a valuable opportunity to analyze, as well as to validate climate simulations of the variability in free atmosphere circulations over the past one hundred years.     

Characteristics of Arctic synoptic activity, 1952–1989

Summary Synoptic activity for the Arctic is examined for the period 1952–1989 using the National Meteorological Center sea level pressure data set. Winter cyclone activity is most common near Iceland, between Svalbard and Scandinavia, the Norwegian and Kara seas, Baffin Bay and the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago; the strongest systems are found in the Iceland and Norwegian seas. Mean cyclone tracks, prepared for 1975–1989, confirm that winter cyclones most frequently enter the Arctic from the Norwegian and Barents seas. Winter anticyclones are most frequent and strongest over Siberia and Alaska/Yukon, with additional frequency maxima of weaker systems found over the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland.During summer, cyclonic activity remains common in the same regions as observed for winter, but increases over Siberia, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Central Aretic, related to cyclogenesis over northern parts of Eurasia and North America. Eurasian cyclones tend to enter the Aretic Ocean from the Laptev Sea eastward to the Chukchi Sea, augmenting the influx of systems from the Norwegian and Barents seas. The Siberian and Alaska/Yukon anticyclone centers disappear, with anticyclone maxima forming over the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Beaufort seas, and southeastward across Canada. Summer cyclones and anticyclones exhibit little regional variability in mean central pressure, and are typically 5–10 mb weaker than their winter counterparts.North of 65°N, cyclone and anticyclone activity peaks curing summer, and is at a minimum during winter. Trends in cyclone and anticyclone activity north of 65°N are examined through least squares regression. Since 1952, significant positive trends are found for cyclone numbers during winter, spring and summer, and for anticyclone numbers during spring, summer and autumn.With 11 Figures     

COMPARISONS OF EOF AND CCA METHODS IN EXPERIMENTS WITH TYPHOON TRACK

A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those of EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts'Analpees appltwg themethods to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cyclone track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed of a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill in both track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector errorare 159.27, 314.84,524.12, 813.03, and 987.12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.     

Surface weather observations of atmospheric dust over the southwest summer monsoon region

Summary Surface weather observations are analyzed to investigate the temporal and spatial distributions of dust loading associated with the southwest Indian summer monsoon region. The 1979 annual distribution of dust days for the region 10°N-37°N and 35°E-90°E are presented. Five year composites of dust loading for the months May, June and July are derived. Results are analyzed with respect to preferred wind direction and wind speed associated with dust loading, potential source regions and regions of deposition. A case study of the meteorological conditions of a dust outbreak that occurred over the Arabian Peninsula in June of 1979 is given. Rawinsonde temperature observations are analyzed to locate the top of the dust layer over the Rub al Khali desert. The top of the dust layer was found to vary from 400 mb during the summer to 600 mb in the late spring and early fall.With 9 Figures     

南海热带气旋发展各阶段某些物理量综合场分析

本文试用综合研究方法探讨南海热带气旋发展各阶段的基本结构及其演变特征。 综合场分析表明:南海热带气旋的流场大体呈圆形分布。热带气旋的半径在地面图上约为4纬距左右,属天气尺度,垂直伸展范围一般可达300mb左右,涡度轴的方向从低压阶段至风暴阶段变化较大,而且是层和低层轴向不一致,强风暴阶段涡度轴方向基本垂直,径向流入层主要位于500mb以下,流入层达到的高度较西太平洋台风为低。温度场结构方面,各阶段气旋中心温度较周围高出2—6℃;强风暴阶段暖核出现在300mb附近,200mb附近为一冷中心;冷暖中心的数值和出现高度均小于西太平洋台风,此外各阶段的温湿分布清楚地表明,为热带气旋发展供应热量、水汽的暖湿空气,主要来自低层的中心以南地区。 文中还简单讨论了中、低空环境流场,热带气旋的暖心结构与垂直运动,稳定度等等影响南海台风发展加强的一些因子。      

Variations of 500 hPa flow patterns over Iranand surrounding areas and their relationship with the climate of Iran

Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001     

东半球500hPa闭合低压系统的统计分析

通过分析５００ｈＰａ东半球闭合低压系统，研究其气候规律。低压活动次数有年际、月际、季际变化。低压活动于中高纬度带，主要集中于两大地区，第一区是西太平洋及大陆东岸，第二区是东欧地区。第一区中心夏季向西移到大陆上，强度增大，对中国气候有重要作用。低压中心高度值的频数分布是双峰型。低压生命期比阻塞高压还长些。强低压主要出现在大陆高纬地带和西太平洋。强发展的低压多数出现在西太平洋。亚洲低压移动路径有两条，一条从西西伯利亚北部到库页岛，一条从咸海东移到库页岛     

Direct measurement of the meridional circulation in the stratosphere during the IGY

Summary In this study the horizontal component of the meridional circulation at the 100, 50 and 30 mb levels in the stratosphere is computed for the IGY period July 1957 through June 1958. Radiosonde data from approximately 240 stations, well distributed over the northern hemisphere, are used in the analysis of the north-south component of the wind. Values of the mean meridional circulation for the four seasons are presented at every 5° latitude from the equator to 80°N.In the annual average at 100 mb an apparent three cell pattern is obseered, consisting of a region of strong poleward motion north of 55°N, equatorward motion from 15° to 55°N and weak poleward motion from 0° to 15°N. In the annual averages at 50 and 30 mb poleward motions appear only at high latitudes and diminsih in strength with height. Equatorward motions dominate at 30 mb. A maximum value of the mean meridional circulation of +60 cm sec^–1 is found at 100 mb at 70°N.

---

Zusammenfassung In dieser Untersuchung ist für die 100-, 50- und 30 mb-Niveaus die horizontale Komponente der meridionalen Zirkulation in der Stratosphäre im internationalen geophysikalischen Jahr (Juli 1957 bis Juni 1958) berechnet worden. Es werden dabei Radiosonden-Daten von etwa 240 Stationen, die über die nördliche Hemisphäre gut verteilt sind, für die Analyse der Nord-Süd-Windkomponente verwendet. Für jeden fünften Breitengrad vom Äquator bis 80°N werden Werte der durchschnittlichen Meridionalkomponente der Zirkulation für die vier Jahreszeiten mitgeteilt.Im Jahresdurchschnitt zeigt sich im 100 mb-Niveau eine Verteilung der Meridionalkomponente, die anscheinend einem aus drei Zellen bestehenden Zirkulationssystem entspricht, wobei nördlich von 55°N eine starke polwärts gerichtete Bewegung, zwischen 15° und 55°N eine Strömung gegen den Äquator und zwischen 0° und 15°N wieder eine schwache polwärts gerichtete Strömung besteht. In den Jahresdurchschnittswerten aus den Niveaus der 50- und 30 mb-Flächen sind polwärts gerichtete Strömungskomponenten nur in hohen geographischen Breiten festzustellen, die mit zunehmender Höhe an Stärke abnehmen. Im Niveau von 30 mb herrscht eine zum Äquator hin gerichtete Meridionalkomponente der Strömung vor. Ein Maximalwert der durchschnittlichen meridionalen Zirkulation von +60 cm sec^–1 wurde in der 100 mb-Höhenlage bei 70°N festgestellt.

---

Résumé Dans cette étude, la composante horizontale de la circulation méridionale dans la stratosphère aux niveaux de 100, 50 et 30mb est calculée pour la période de Juillet 1957au Juin 1958 pour l'Année Géophysique Internationale. Les données de radiosondage d'environ 240 stations bien réparties sur l'hémisphère du nord sont employées dans l'analyse de la composante nord-sud du vent. Les valeurs de la circulation moyenne méridionale des quatre saisons sont présententées pour tous les 5° de latitude de l'équateur jusqu'à 80°N.En moyenne d'un an, on peut apparemment observer, à 100mb, une distribution en trois cellules consistant d'une région de mouvement fort vers le pôle au nord de 55°N, d'un mouvement vers l'équateur de 15° à 55°N et d'un mouvement faible vers le pôle de 0° à 15° N. A 50 et 30 mb en moyenne d'un an des mouvements vers le pôle apparaissent seulement dans les hautes altitudes et ils diminuent en force suivant la hauteur. Dans le niveau de 30 mb, c'est un mouvement vers l'équateur qui domine. Use valeur maxima de la circulation méridionale moyenne de +60 cm·sec^–1 a été constatée à 100 mb à 70°N.

---

---

With 6 Figures

---

The research reported in this paper has been made possible through the support of the Atomic Energy Commission and of the Geophysics Research Directorate of the U.S. Air Force under contracts No. At (30-2) 2241 and 19(604)-5223.     

Annual mean statistics of the surface fluxes of the tropical Indian Ocean

The computed long-term annual mean and intramonthly variances of air and sea surface temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss for the tropical Indian Ocean between 30 °N and 30 °S are presented. These estimates, which are based on about one million weather reports for the period 1948–1972, indicate a mean annual meridional heat transport in agreement with previous estimates in direction though different in magnitude. The annual mean E-P chart shows that the Bay of Bengal region is highly conducive to large-scale convergence.     

Critical time requirements for operational use of deterministic and ensemble tropical cyclone track forecasts

Tropical cyclone track forecasts have been improved, and forecast intervals have been extended to five days, owing to improved global and regional numerical model guidance. Critical time requirements that must be met for operational use of the deterministic model track forecasts are summarized for the U.S. and other selected non-U.S. tropical cyclone warning centers. One of the most accurate deterministic model forecasts from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts arrives too late to be used with other models at the + 6 h warning time, and thus is at least 12 h old before it can be operationally used. The time-critical nature of the tropical cyclone warning system is a major obstacle to operational use of single-model, or proposed multi-model, ensemble prediction system (EPS) mean and spread information, which is 12 h (or 18 h) delayed. This EPS mean and spread must also be superior to the mean and spread of the consensus of deterministic models that are available six hours earlier. These requirements must be met before the EPS tropical cyclone tracks will be operationally useful in specifying the uncertainty in the official track forecasts, which is the next challenge in tropical cyclone track warnings.     

Evaluation of Hydrologically Relevant PCM Climate Variables and Large-Scale Variability over the Continental U.S.

The ability of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to reproduce the mean and variability of hydrologically relevant climate variables was evaluated by comparing PCM historical climate runs with observations over temporal scales from sub-daily to annual. The domain was the continental U.S, and the model spatial resolution was T42 (about 2.8 degrees latitude by longitude). The climate variables evaluated include precipitation, surface air temperature, net surface solar radiation, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent. The results show that PCM has a winter dry bias in the Pacific Northwest and a summer wet bias in the central plains. The diurnal precipitation variation in summer is much stronger than observed, with an afternoon maximum in summer precipitation over much of the U.S. interior, in contrast with an observed nocturnal maximum in parts of the interior. PCM has a cold bias in annual mean temperature over most of the U.S., with deviations as large as ?8 K. The PCM daily temperature range is lower than observed, especiallyin the central U.S. PCM generally overestimates the net solar radiation over most of the U.S, although the diurnal cycle is simulated well in spring, summer and winter. In autumn PCM has a pronounced noontime peak in solar radiation that differs by 5–10% from observations. PCM'ssimulated soil moisture is less variable than that of a sophisticated land-surface hydrology model, especially in the interior of the country. PCM simulates the wetter conditions over the southeastern U.S. and California during warm (El Niño) events, but shifts the drier conditions in the PacificNorthwest northward and underestimates their magnitude. The temperature response to the North Pacific Oscillation is generally captured by PCM, but the amplitude of this response is overestimated by a factor of about two.     

A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999