四川巴中地区38年来气候变化特征分析

利用1971—2008年巴中地区4个站点的地面常规观测资料和滑动平均、MK法及MHF小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了该地区降水和温度的年际、年代际的气候变化特征。结果表明：巴中地区的年均气温总体上表现出暖→冷→暖3个阶段,并呈现出8年的准周期变化特征;冬春气温的年代际变化显示出暖→冷→暖3个阶段性特征,而夏秋气温的年代际变化则显示出暖→冷→暖→冷4个阶段性特征。巴中地区的年降水量呈现出减少的趋势,递减率为13．813mm／10年;春季降水量低于全国的春季平均水平,夏、秋季平均降水量均高于全国的平均水平,且占到全年降水量的80％以上。巴中地区的年降水量存在较为显著的2年和6年的准周期变化,降水量增加和减少的突变较多显示出其复杂性。春、夏、秋三季的降水量有随温度升高而下降的趋势,而冬季的降水量有随温度的升高先增多后减少的趋势。巴中气候特征的分析对巴中农业区划和生产安排有其重要意义。     

四川巴中地区38年来气候变化特征分析

利用1971—2008年巴中地区4个站点的地面常规观测资料和滑动平均、MK法及MHF小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了该地区降水和温度的年际、年代际的气候变化特征。结果表明：巴中地区的年均气温总体上表现出暖→冷→暖3个阶段,并呈现出8年的准周期变化特征;冬春气温的年代际变化显示出暖→冷→暖3个阶段性特征,而夏秋气温的年代际变化则显示出暖→冷→暖→冷4个阶段性特征。巴中地区的年降水量呈现出减少的趋势,递减率为13．813mm／10年;春季降水量低于全国的春季平均水平,夏、秋季平均降水量均高于全国的平均水平,且占到全年降水量的80％以上。巴中地区的年降水量存在较为显著的2年和6年的准周期变化,降水量增加和减少的突变较多显示出其复杂性。春、夏、秋三季的降水量有随温度升高而下降的趋势,而冬季的降水量有随温度的升高先增多后减少的趋势。巴中气候特征的分析对巴中农业区划和生产安排有其重要意义。     

近50年中国地表净辐射的时空变化特征分析

基于GIS空间分析技术与Mann-Kendall趋势分析方法,对中国陆地区域699个气象站点1961-2010年逐年、季平均地表净辐射进行时空变化特征分析,结果表明:(1)参数拟合后的FAO Penman修正式对模拟站点逐日地表净辐射的总体精度较高,均方根误差为27.9W.m-2,相关系数为0.85,平均相对误差为0.13;(2)全国近50年站点平均地表净辐射在年、季均呈现出较明显的下降过程,年均降幅为0.74W.m-2.10a-1,不同季节的下降幅度存在差异,夏季降幅最大;(3)逐站点分析显示全国大部分站点(59.8%)年均地表净辐射呈显著下降趋势(0.05),东部趋势变化比西部明显,夏季在地表净辐射年际变化中的贡献最大,华北、华中、华南地区的站点在春夏秋季均呈显著下降趋势。     

Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation during 1961–2014 across the Mongolian Plateau

Precipitation is the dominant factor that controls vegetation growth and land-use practices in the arid and semiarid Mongolian Plateau(MP), so the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of precipitation change has been an important scientific question in the region. This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation across the entire MP based on monthly precipitation data from 136 meteorological stations during 1961–2014 by using a modified Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope, Morlet Wavelet Transform, and geostatistical methods. Results show the following: 1) Annual precipitation decreased slightly from 1961 to 2014.Stations with positive and negative trends were 41.9%and 58.1%, respectively. Significant positive trends were mainly in the southwestern and northeastern regions of the plateau, whereas significant negative trends were in the northern and southeastern regions.2) Precipitation decreased at rates of-5.65 and-0.41 mm/decade in summer and autumn, respectively, but increased at 1.91 and 0.51 mm/decade in spring and winter. The contribution of spring and winter precipitation to the annual amount increased significantly, but that of summer precipitation decreased significantly. 3) A large majority of stations(80.2%) showed decreasing trends in summer,whereas 89.7% and 83.1% of stations showed increasing trends in spring and winter. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude in seasonal precipitation amount was strongly heterogeneous. 4)By climatic zones, precipitation increased in humid and arid zones, but decreased in a semiarid zone. On the whole, the MP experienced a drying trend, with significant regional differentiation and seasonal variations.     

近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析

本文利用澜沧江流域及周边共30个气象站点1960-2014年的逐月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析、Co-Kriging插值以及重心模型等方法,分析了澜沧江流域降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 分析时段内全区、北部和中部年降水量呈现增加趋势,南部年降水量出现减少趋势。春季全区、北部、中部和南部降水均呈增加趋势;夏季均呈减少趋势;秋季全区和南部降水呈现减少趋势,北部和中部呈增加趋势;冬季全区、中部和南部呈下降趋势,只有北部呈增加趋势。② 近55年来,全区包括北部、中部和南部年降水都存在近29年、近22年和5-10年左右的周期,这3个周期在分析时段内表现很稳定,具有全域性。全区、北部和南部还存在明显的13年左右的周期,中部1975年前和1995年后也存在13年左右的周期,北部1975年前存在明显的7-10年的周期,1995年后,7-10年的周期表现也比较稳定。降水量变化的第一主周期是近29年,第二主周期是近22年。③ 澜沧江流域多年平均降水量由南部向北部减少,流域南部降水最多,多年平均降水量在1200 mm以上,中部多年平均降水量处于800~1100 mm,北部多年平均降水量多小于800 mm,大部分在400~800 mm;澜沧江流域年降水重心和月降水重心都集中在中部,其中11月的降水重心迁移距离最大,向东南方向迁移了131.82 km。从季节来看,春季、夏季和秋季降水重心向东南迁移,冬季的向西北方向迁移,雨季降水重心相对比较集中,旱季降水重心相对 比较分散。     

滇池流域降水时空变异特征分析

降水是区域水资源形成的主要影响因素,其时空变化趋势也直接影响着各种生态系统的结构、服务功能及空间分布与演变。降水时空变异分析是认识区域水资源形成与时空演变的主要手段和方法。本文利用滇池流域及周边雨量站逐月数据,采用回归分析、距平、空间相关性分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Co-kriging插值及交叉验证等方法,对1953-1987年和2007-2012年2个时序系列的时空变异特征分析结果表明：（1）1953-1987年春、秋和冬季降水量有升高趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,但各季节的增减趋势不显著,2007-2012年春、夏、冬季呈减少趋势,秋季为增加趋势,近期降水量明显有减少趋势;（2）1953-1987年流域降水量呈现增加趋势（11.12 mm/10a）,大致经历下降-上升-下降过程,2007-2012年流域降水量呈显著的锯齿状减少趋势,处于枯水期;（3）1953-1987年各时段的雨量主要呈现负相关性（不显著）,2007-2012年间呈现正相关性,通过LISA统计分析认为,空间异质性随地理位置和时间而变化;（4）年均降水量与雨季降水量的空间分布特征基本相似,出现2个降水高值区和2个低值区对顶分布态势。但在2007-2012年,降水量的高值范围有所减少,低值区范围相应有所扩大。     

1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应

本文基于云南省1954-2014年32个气象站点逐月降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、径向基函数空间插值法、小波分析法、R/S分析法、Z指数法,分析了61年的云南省降水序列、旱涝情态的时间特征和空间格局。结果表明：在此期间除春季外,其余各季节降水量均呈现减少态势,年降水量总体以8.1 mm/10 a的速率减少,并且在未来一段时间内将保持减少趋势。多年平均降水量由云南省南部的西双版纳州向西北部的丽江市-迪庆州一带逐步减少;年降水量存在准2 a、准6 a、准8 a、准18 a、准28 a的周期性特征,且以准28 a为主周期;干旱化趋势增加速率较快（K_L=0.359）,印证了降水减少态势,洪涝化趋势减小速率相对较慢（K_I= -0.071）;旱灾易发地区主要涉及5个州,分别为迪庆州、德宏州、西双版纳州、红河州、楚雄州;洪涝易发地区涉及3州2市,依次为怒江州、大理州、文山州、普洱市及邵通市。     

甘肃省近35年连阴雨天气气候特征分析

利用1967～2001年甘肃省80个气象站的逐日降水资料对连阴雨特征进行了较全面的分析.结果表明：甘肃省连阴雨分布的特点是自西北向东南呈台阶状增加,连阴雨相对比较多的地区为甘南地区、陇南东部和陇东东部地区,在甘肃中部-天水-武都一带相对形成一个南北向的少连阴雨带.区域性连阴雨过程的月、季特征表明,夏季区域性连阴雨过程最多,秋季次之,春季和冬季最少.年代际变化特征表明春季区域性连阴雨次数从20世纪70年代到90年代变化不大,但夏秋季连阴雨次数,70年代明显偏多,80年代之后总体次数减少幅度较大.最后从不同季节形成的连阴雨环流形式进行了分析.     

Recent climate trends on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

In arid regions, mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming, mountain ecosystems change rapidly, especially in the arid region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen＇s tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitatiofi in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude, but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas, but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes, while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March, June and August.     

Streamflow response to shrinking glaciers under changing climate in the Lidder Valley,Kashmir Himalayas

The study investigated the streamflow response to the shrinking cryosphere under changing climate in the Lidder valley, Upper Indus Basin(UIB), Kashmir Himalayas. We used a combination of multitemporal satellite data and topographic maps to evaluate the changes in area, length and volume of the glaciers from 1962 to 2013. A total of 37 glaciers from the Lidder valley, with an area of 39.76 km~2 in 1962 were selected for research in this study. It was observed that the glaciers in the valley have lost ~28.89 ±0.1% of the area and ~19.65 ±0.069% of the volume during the last 51 years, with variable interdecadal recession rates. Geomorphic and climatic influences on the shrinking glacier resources were studied. 30-years temperature records(1980-2010) in the study area showed a significant increasing trend in all the seasons. However, the total annual precipitation during the same period showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend except during the late summer months(July, August and September), when the increasing trend is significant. The depletion of glaciers has led to the significant depletion of the streamflows under the changing climate in the valley. Summer streamflows(1971-2012) have increased significantly till mid-nineties but decreased significantly thereafter, suggesting that the tipping point of streamflow peak, due to the enhanced glacier-melt contribution under increasing global temperatures, may have been already reached in the basin. The observed glacier recession and climate change patterns, if continued in future, would further deplete the streamflows with serious implications on water supplies for different uses in the region.     

福建省地表温度与植被覆盖度的相关性分析

地表温度（Land surface Tenperature, LST）和植被覆盖度（Fractional Vegetation Coverage, FVC)是生态环境变化的重要指标因子,研究两者的时空变化及相互关系对评价区域生态环境建设、改善区域生态环境具有重要意义。本文以福建省为研究区域,利用2001-2015年MODIS 11A2 LST和13Q1 NDVI数据,在时序数据重构的基础上对福建省LST时空变化及LST与FVC的相互关系进行分析。结果表明：①2001-2015年福建省LST总体呈轻微下降趋势,尤其是2010年之后其LST明显降低。LST与FVC的空间分布具有较好的负相关一致性：在FVC较高的区域,LST值较低;在FVC较低的区域,LST较高。② LST与FVC、DEM和纬度均成负相关关系,且负相关性在一年之中随着月份的变化而呈规律性增加或降低。夏季FVC对LST的负相关性最大为0.7,冬季FVC对LST的负相关性降低为0.4。③LST随着FVC增加而降低的趋势呈现分段线性关系,存在“FVC拐点”。“FVC拐点”前后随着FVC增加LST的降低速率在夏季 “先慢后快”,而在冬季则“先快后慢”。春秋两季,LST随着FVC增加而降低的速率在“FVC拐点”前后差异变小。在夏季,当FVC大于0.4时,FVC每增加0.1可降低LST约0.77 °C,降温效果大约是FVC小于0.4时的2倍。因此如果要有效地降低夏季地表高温,要使地表植被覆盖大于40%,才能较好的发挥植被的降温的作用。④在1-8月份,FVC对LST的负相关作用存在滞后性,FVC变化对滞后一个月的LST时空分布影响更大。研究成果对福建省生态环境建设与评估具有一定的意义,对于发挥植被对区域高温抑制作用提供了重要的参考依据。     

贵州高原1960-2016年降水变化特征及重心转移分析

利用贵州高原34个气象站1960-2016年共57 a的降水资料,基于协同克里金法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、气候倾向率、重心模型等方法分析了贵州高原降水在不同时间尺度下的时空分布规律以及降水重心的转移趋势。结果表明：① 贵州高原多年平均降水量呈现南多北少特征。在南部与东部存在3个多雨中心,分别位于西南暖湿气流的北上通道（兴义-安顺一带）、苗岭山脉的迎风坡（都匀-独山一带）以及武陵山脉的迎风坡（铜仁–松桃一带）;少雨区位于乌蒙山脉背风坡的威宁–毕节一带。② 1960-2016年降水量年代变化呈现出波动性,2010s的降水变异性最大,1990s的降水变异性最小;年际变化较为剧烈,呈不显著减少的趋势,在空间上呈现中部西部减少、东部增加的趋势;降水季节差异显著,春季、秋季降水显著减少,夏季、冬季的降水不明显增加;各月降水变化情况不同,1、3月降水增加最明显,4月降水下降最明显。③ 降水重心呈西南-东北向分布,有明显的东移趋势。贵州高原降水量的减少可能与西南季风的减弱有关。研究结果对贵州地区水资源配置及洪涝灾害预防具有重要意义。     

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

1INTRODUCTIONOneoftheeffectsofglobalwarmingisthatprecipita-tionhasincreasedoversomeareasintheworld,andthegaugedataofprecipitation (excludingAntarctica)showthatglobalprecipitationhasincreasedslightlybyabout9mmforthe20thcentury, whichwas verysmallcomparedwiththeinterannualandmul-ti-decadalvariability(NEWetal.,2001).Butregion-ally,thereexisted agreatdealofdifferences,suchasinmostpartsofAfrica, Amazon,westernSouthAmerica,theweatherhasbecomedrier,andinmostpartsofEuropeandCanada,thereexisted…     

Intercomparison of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature v4 and v3b Datasets

Version 4(v4) of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature(ERSST) dataset is compared with its precedent, the widely used version 3b(v3b). The essential upgrades applied to v4 lead to remarkable differences in the characteristics of the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly(SSTa) in both the temporal and spatial domains. First, the largest discrepancy of the global mean SSTa values around the 1940 s is due to ship-observation corrections made to reconcile observations from buckets and engine intake thermometers. Second, differences in global and regional mean SSTa values between v4 and v3b exhibit a downward trend(around-0.032℃ per decade) before the 1940s, an upward trend(around 0.014℃ per decade) during the period of 1950–2015, interdecadal oscillation with one peak around the 1980s, and two troughs during the 1960s and 2000s, respectively. This does not derive from treatments of the polar or the other data-void regions, since the difference of the SSTa does not share the common features. Third, the spatial pattern of the ENSO-related variability of v4 exhibits a wider but weaker cold tongue in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean compared with that of v3b, which could be attributed to differences in gap-filling assumptions since the latter features satellite observations whereas the former features in situ ones. This intercomparison confirms that the structural uncertainty arising from underlying assumptions on the treatment of diverse SST observations even in the same SST product family is the main source of significant SST differences in the temporal domain. Why this uncertainty introduces artificial decadal oscillations remains unknown.     

龙泉驿地区降水的多尺度特征及集中性研究

针对强降水是龙泉驿地区滑坡泥石流等地质灾害产生的重要诱因的问题,通过趋势分析法、Morlet小波分析方法、统计分析等分析了龙泉驿地区降水整体趋势,年、季降水量及降水日数的多尺度变化特征,及月、旬、日降水的集中性特征。结果表明,龙泉驿地区年季降水量总体呈下降趋势,但2006年后降水量开始显示出增加趋势。年降水量显示出3年、9年左右的准周期震荡,降水13数周期震荡则比较复杂。2008年以后龙泉驿地区年、季降水处于丰水期,降水集中性显著,降水强度有增大趋势,夏秋季有发生地质灾害的可能性。可诱发龙泉驿地区地质灾害的主要降水时段和降水比重极值时段为7、8月,1980年代初中期降水集中性主要出现在7月份,1980年代中后期至2000年代主要出现在8月份。19--25旬是降水的集中性时段,而日降水高峰时段出现在0：00～7：00时段尤其是2：00～5：00时段。     

Seasonal variations of net-phytoplankton community structure in the southern Yellow Sea

Based on the field survey data of four cruises in 2011, all phytoplankton communities in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS) were investigated for the species composition, dominant species, abundance and diversity indices. A total of 379 species belonging to 9 phyla were identified, of which the most abundant group was Bacillariophyta (60.9%), followed by Pyrrophyta (23.7%) and Haptophyta (6.9%). The seasonal distribution of abundance was: summer (4137.1×10³ ind m^?3) > spring (3940.4×10³ ind m^?3) > winter (3010.6×10³ ind m^?3) > autumn (340.8 ×10³ ind m^?3), while the horizontal distribution showed a decreasing tendency from inshore to offshore regions. The dominant species of phytoplankton varied in different seasons. The dominant species were Thalassiosira pacifica, Skeletoema spp. and Chaetoceros cinctus in spring, Chaetoceros debbilis, Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus and Chaetoceros curvisetus in summer, Thalassiosira curviseriata, Alexandrium catenella and Ceratium fusus in autumn, Paralia sulcata, Phaeocystis sp. and Bacillaria paradoxa in winter, respectively. In SYS, the group of temperate coastal species was the major ecotype, and the groups of the central SYS species and oceanic species were also important constituents. The average values of Shannon-Weaver diversity index (H’) and Pielou evenness index (J) were 2.37 and 0.65 respectively. The indices H’ and J in the open sea were higher than those in coastal waters. Obvious co-variation tendencies between H’ and J were observed in all but the summer cruise of this survey.     

Hydrological Processes in the Huaihe River Basin,China: Seasonal Variations,Causes and Implications

Understanding streamflow changes in terms of trends and periodicities and relevant causes is the first step into scientific management of water resources in a changing environment. In this study, monthly streamflow variations were analyzed using Modified Mann-Kendall(MM-K) trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) methods at 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin. It was found that: 1) streamflow mainly occurs during May to September, accounting for 70.4% of the annual total streamflowamount with Cv values between 0.16–0.85 and extremum ratio values between 1.70–23.90; 2) decreased streamflow can be observed in the Huaihe River Basin and significant decreased streamflow can be detected during April and May, which should be the results of precipitation change and increased irrigation demand; 3) significant periods of 2–4 yr were detected during the 1960 s, the 1980 s and the 2000 s. Different periods were found at stations concentrated within certain regions implying periods of streamflow were caused by different influencing factors for specific regions; 4) Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) has the most significant impacts on monthly streamflow mainly during June. Besides, Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Ni?o3.4 Sea Surface Temperature(Ni?o3.4) have impacts on monthly streamflow with three months lags, and was less significant in time lag of six months. Identification of critical climatic factors having impacts on streamflow changes can help to predict monthly streamflow changes using climatic factors as explanatory variables. These findings were well corroborated by results concerning impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) regimes on precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basin. The results of this study can provide theoretical background for basin-scale management of water resources and agricultural irrigation.     

Seasonal distribution of bioaerosols in the coastal region of Qingdao

Bioaerosols were collected by using a six-stage bioaerosols sampler from September 2007 to August 2008 in the coastal region of Qingdao, China. The terrestrial and marine microbes(including bacteria and fungi) were analyzed in order to understand the distribution features of bioaerosols. The results show that the average monthly concentrations of terrestrial bacteria, marine bacteria, terrestrial fungi and marine fungi are in the ranges of 80–615 CFU m-3, 91–468 CFU m-3, 76–647 CFU m-3 and 231–1959 CFU m-3, respectively. The concentrations of terrestrial bacteria, marine bacteria, terrestrial fungi, marine fungi and total microbes are the highest in each microbial category during fall, high in spring, and the lowest in the summer and winter. The bacterial particles are coarse in spring, autumn and winter. The sizes of fungal particle present the log-normal distribution in all the seasons.     

基于植被状态指数的云南省农业干旱状况时空分析

本文首先计算了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱指数VCI,然后使用Pearson相关系数评价降水与VCI的相关性,基于VCI识别云南省2004-2013年农业干旱事件,最后,与SPEI气象干旱识别结果进行对比分析,在VCI农业干旱识别的基础上,使用干旱频率和干旱面积占比指标分析了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱时空特征。结果表明：降水只是影响VCI指数的关键因素之一;VCI和SPEI指数均能够较好对干旱进行监测并识别典型干旱,但两者的识别结果存在差异;云南省农业干旱频率在春冬两季较高,夏季较低,秋季介于夏季和春冬季之间;春夏冬三季农业干旱频率空间分布较为均匀,秋季农业干旱频率呈南低北高的分布态势,整体上北部干旱频率高于南部;2004-2013年云南省整体干旱面积占比呈现先减小后增加再波动的趋势,春冬两季整体干旱面积占比最高,分别为46.63%和47.18%,呈现下降趋势,夏季整体干旱面积占比最低,为43.81%,呈现上升趋势,秋季整体干旱面积占比介于冬春季和夏季之间,为45.74%,呈现下降趋势。总之,云南省农业干旱春冬易发性最高,影响范围最大,夏季易发性最低,影响范围最小。     

2022年青海门源M_(S)6.9地震前地电阻率变化分析北大核心CSCD

分别运用原始曲线分析法和归一化速率方法分析门源地震震中300 km范围内3个地电阻率台站数据变化。从原始曲线来看,金银滩台EW道临震前2个月出现大幅突跳及保留年变形态的趋势下降(-3.3%);山丹台NS道趋势下降(-1.9%)、EW道趋势上升(3.1%);武威小西沟台NS道趋势下降(-3.3%)、EW道趋势上升(2.8%),震后EW道趋势转平。而3个地电阻率台站归一化速率曲线在门源地震前均出现超过阈值的现象,但各自归一化速率形态存在差异。整点值突跳变化和日均值、月均值曲线加速变化、转折变化,尤其是上升至高值阶段出现的转折变化均可作为异常形态进行分析,以上变化不明显时需结合归一化速率方法提取异常。