Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.     

Field Survey of Tsunami Effects in Sri Lanka due to the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (M_w) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments.     

Automatic detection,location and quantification of earthquakes: Application to tsunami warning

We describe a fully automated seismic event detection and location system, providing for real-time estimates of the epicentral parameters of both local and distant earthquakes. The system uses 12 telemetered short-period stations, with a regional aperture of 350 km, as well as two 3-component broad-band stations. Detection and location of teleseismic events is achieved independently and concurrently on the short-period and long-period channels. The long-period data is then used to obtain an estimate of the seismic momentM ₀ of the earthquake through the mantle magnitudeM _m, as introduced byOkal andTalandier (1989). In turn, this estimate ofM ₀ is used to infer the expected tsunami amplitude at Papeete, within 15 minutes of the recording of Rayleigh waves. The performance of the method is discussed in terms of the accuracy of the epicentral parameters and seismic moment obtained in real time, as compared to the values later published by the reporting agencies. Our estimates are usually within 3 degrees of the reported epicenter, and the standard deviation on the seismic moment only 0.19 unit of magnitude for a population of 154 teleseismic events.     

M TSU : Recovering Seismic Moments from Tsunameter Records

We define a new magnitude scale, M_TSU, allowing the quantification of the seismic moment M₀ of an earthquake based on recordings of its tsunami in the far field by ocean-bottom pressure sensors (``tsunameters') deployed in ocean basins, far from continental or island shores which are known to affect profoundly and in a nonlinear fashion the amplitude of the tsunami wave. The formula for M_TSU, M_TSU = log₁₀ M₀ − 20 = log₁₀ X (ω) + C_D^TSU + C_S^TSU + C₀, where X (ω) is the spectral amplitude of the tsunami, C_D^TSU a distance correction and C_S^TSU a source correction, is directly adapted from the mantle magnitude M_m introduced for seismic surface waves by Okal and Talandier. Like M_m, its corrections are fully justified theoretically based on the representation of a tsunami wave as a branch of the Earth's normal modes. Even the locking constant C₀, which may depend on the nature of the recording (surface amplitude of the tsunami or overpressure at the ocean floor) and its units, is predicted theoretically. M_TSU combines the power of a theoretically developed algorithm, with the robustness of a magnitude measurement that does not take into account such parameters as focal geometry and exact depth, which may not be available under operational conditions in the framework of tsunami warning. We verify the performance of the concept on simulations of the great 1946 Aleutian tsunami at two virtual gauges, and then apply the algorithm to 24 records of 7 tsunamis at DART tsunameters during the years 1994–2003. We find that M_TSU generally recovers the seismic moment M₀ within 0.2 logarithmic units, even under unfavorable conditions such as excessive focal depth and refraction of the tsunami wave around continental masses. Finally, we apply the algorithm to the JASON satellite trace obtained over the Bay of Bengal during the 2004 Sumatra tsunami, after transforming the trace into a time series through a simple ad hoc procedure. Results are surprisingly good, with most estimates of the moment being over 10²⁹ dyn-cm, and thus identifying the source as an exceptionally large earthquake.     

Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M _s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

Modeling of the runup heights of the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami of 12 July 1993

The Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (M _w 7.7) of July 12, 1993, is one of the largest tsunamigenic events in the Sea of Japan. The tsunami magnitudeM _t is determined to be 8.1 from the maximum amplitudes of the tsunami recorded on tide gauges. This value is larger thanM _w by 0.4 units. It is suggested that the tsunami potential of the Nansei-Oki earthquake is large forM _w . A number of tsunami runup data are accumulated for a total range of about 1000 km along the coast, and the data are averaged to obtain the local mean heightsH _n for 23 segments in intervals of about 40 km each. The geographic variation ofH _n is approximately explained in terms of the empirical relationship proposed byAbe (1989, 1993). The height prediction from the available earthquake magnitudes ranges from 5.0–8.4 m, which brackets the observed maximum ofH _n , 7.7 m, at Okushiri Island.     

Analysis and automatic processing in near-field of eight 1992–1994 tsunamigenic earthquakes: Improvements towards real-time tsunami warning

We study eight tsunamigenic earthquakes of 1992–1994 with data from single near-field 3-component long-period stations. The analysis is made from the standpoint of tsunami warning by an automatic process which estimates the epicentral location and the seismic moment through the variable-period mantle magnitudeM _m . Simulations of early warning based on the real-time computation of the seismic moment are also tested with this system, which would give a justified warning in each region of tsunami potentiality. By exploiting the dependence of moment rate release with frequency, the system has the capability of recognizing both tsunami earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua and 1994 Java events, as well as instances of the opposite case of low-frequency deficiency, interpreted as indicating a deeper than normal source (1993 Guam event). We report both the results of delayed-time processing of the near-field stations, and the actual real-time warnings at PPT, which confirm the former.     

设定琉球海沟发生罕遇地震评估我国东南沿海地区的海啸风险

根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。     

基于E-FAST法分析海啸波高对潜在海啸源参数的敏感性

以马尼拉海沟的北断层发生M_W8.0地震在南海引发海啸为假想的模拟情景, 利用E-FAST法定量分析了COMCOT海啸数值模型输出(最大海啸波高)对震级, 震源深度, 震中位置和断层走向、 倾角、 滑动角等震源参数的敏感性, 以及各震源参数间的交互效应对最大海啸波高的影响. 结果表明, 观测点B₁( 20.1°N, 119.4°E)、 B₂(18.4°N, 118.1°E)和B₃(13.5°N, 117.6°E)的最大海啸波高都对震级十分敏感, 对震中位置、 断层走向和倾角较为敏感. 敏感的震源参数在影响上述3个观测点的最大海啸波高时, 与其它震源参数产生了较强的交互效应. 但是对于不同的观测点, 各震源参数的重要度排序则存在一定的差异. 该分析结果有助于更好地认识海啸波高与潜在海啸源参数之间的关系.      

Field survey report on tsunami disasters caused by the 1993 Southwest Hokkaido earthquake

Detailed field work at Okushiri Island and along the southwest coast of Hokkaido has revealed quantitatively (1) the advancing direction of tsunami on land, (2) the true tsunami height (i.e., height of tsunami, excluding its splashes, as measured from the ground) and (3) the flow velocity of tsunami on land, in heavily damaged areas. When a Japanese wooden house is swept away by tsunami, bolts that tie the house to its concrete foundation resist until the last moment and become bent towards the direction of the house being carried away. The orientations of more than 850 of those bent bolts and iron pipes (all that can be measured, mostly at Okushiri Island) and fell-down direction of about 400 trees clearly display how tsunami behaved on land and caused serious damage at various places. The true tsunami height was estimated by using several indicators, such as broken tree twigs and a window pane. The flow velocity of tsunami on land was determined by estimating the hydrodynamic force exerted on a bent handrail and a bent-down guardrail by the tsunami throughin situ strength tests.Contrary to the wide-spread recognition after the tsunami hazard, our results clearly indicate that only a few residential areas (i.e., Monai, eastern Hamatsumae, and a small portion at northern Aonae, all on Okushiri Island) were hit by a huge tsunami, with true heights reaching 10 m. Southern Aonae was completely swept away by tsunami that came directly from the focal region immediately to the west. The true tsunami height over the western sea wall of southern Aonae was estimated as 3 to 4 m. Northern Aonae also suffered severe damage due to tsunami that invaded from the corner zone of the sand dune (8 m high) and tide embankment at the northern end of the Aonae Harbor. This corner apparently acted as a tsunami amplifier, and tide embankment or breakwater can be quite dangerous when tsunami advances towards the corner it makes with the coast. The nearly complete devastation of Inaho at the northern end of Okushiri Island underscored the danger of tsunami whose propagation direction is parallel to the coast, since such tsunami waves tend to be amplified and tide embankment or breakwater is constructed low towards the coast at many harbors or fishing ports. Tsunami waves mostly of 2 to 4 m in true height swept away Hamatsumae on the southeast site of Okushiri Island where there were no coastal structures. Coastal structures were effective in reducing tsunami hazard at many sites. The maximum flow velocity at northern Aonae was estimated as 10 to 18 m/s (Tsutsumi et al., 1994), and such a high on-land velocity of tsunami near shore is probably due to the rapid shallowing of the deep sea near the epicentral region towards Okushiri Island. If the advancing direction, true height, and flow velocity of tsunami can be predicted by future analyses of tsunami generation and progagation, the analyses will be a powerful tool for future assessment of tsunami disasters, including the identification of blind spots in the tsunami hazard reduction.     

The Tsunami of 26 December, 2004: Numerical Modeling and Energy Considerations

A numerical model for the global tsunamis computation constructed by Kowalik et al. (2005), is applied to the tsunami of 26 December, 2004 in the World Ocean from 80°S to 69°N with spatial resolution of one minute. Because the computational domain includes close to 200 million grid points, a parallel version of the code was developed and run on a Cray X1 supercomputer. An energy flux function is used to investigate energy transfer from the tsunami source to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Although the first energy input into the Pacific Ocean was the primary (direct) wave, reflections from the Sri Lankan and eastern shores of Maldives were a larger source. The tsunami traveled from Indonesia, around New Zealand, and into the Pacific Ocean by various routes. The direct path through the deep ocean to North America carried miniscule energy, while the stronger signal traveled a considerably longer distance via South Pacific ridges as these bathymetric features amplified the energy flux vectors. Travel times for these amplified energy fluxes are much longer than the arrival of the first wave. These large fluxes are organized in the wave-like form when propagating between Australia and Antarctica. The sources for the larger fluxes are multiple reflections from the Seychelles, Maldives and a slower direct signal from the Bay of Bengal. The energy flux into the Atlantic Ocean shows a different pattern since the energy is pumped into this domain through the directional properties of the source function. The energy flow into the Pacific Ocean is approximately 75% of the total flow to the Atlantic Ocean. In many locations along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, the first arriving signal, or forerunner, has lower amplitude than the main signal which often is much delayed. Understanding this temporal distribution is important for an application to tsunami warning and prediction.     

Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea

In this paper,we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea,which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maxi-mum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5～4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province,and 7～8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical ex-periments,we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three ob-servational stations,and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis.     

Stratigraphic records of tsunamis along the Japan Sea,southwest Hokkaido,northern Japan

The stratigraphy of tsunami deposits along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan, reveals tsunami recurrences in this particular area. Sandy tsunami deposits are preserved in small valley plains, whereas gravelly deposits of possible tsunami origin are identified in surficial soils covering a Holocene marine terrace and a slope talus. At least five horizons of tsunami events can be defined in the Okushiri Island, the youngest of which immediately overlies the Ko‐d tephra layer (1640 AD) and was likely formed by the historical Oshima‐Ohshima tsunami in 1741 AD. The four older tsunami deposits, dated using accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C, were formed at around the 12th century, 1.5–1.6, 2.4–2.6, and 2.8–3.1 ka, respectively. Tsunami sand beds of the 1741 AD and circa 12th century events are recognized in the Hiyama District of Hokkaido Island, but the older tsunami deposits are missing. The deposits of these two tsunamis are found together at the same sites and distributed in regions where wave heights of the 1993 tsunami (Hokkaido Nansei‐oki earthquake, Mw = 7.7) were less than 3 m. Thus, the 12th century tsunami waves were possibly generated near the south of Okushiri Island, whereas the 1993 tsunami was generated towards the north of the island. The estimated recurrence intervals of paleotsunamis, 200–1100 years with an average of 500 years, likely represents the recurrence interval of large earthquakes which would have occurred along several active faults offshore of southwest Hokkaido.     

冲绳海槽地区地震潜在海啸对中国东南沿海的影响研究

采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考.      

Source model of Noto-Hanto-Oki earthquake tsunami of 7 February 1993

A source model was discussed for a small tsunami accompanied by the Noto-Hanto-Oki earthquake (M _s 6.6), striking Japan on 7 February, 1994. Assuming a fault model under the sea bottom, we estimated the focal parameters jointly, using synthesized tsunami source spectra as well as the tsunami numerical simulation. The fault proposed by this study consists of a plane sized 15×15 km, dipping N47°W with the dip angle of 42°, which is almost pure reverse fault (slip angle 87°) with a dislocation of 1 meter. The numerical simulation shows that the shallow sea in the source region caused a comparatively long recurring tsunami (the periods are 12–18 minutes) in spite of its small size. The model fault is corresponding to an aftershock area of this earthquake.     

Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island,Philippines tsunami

This is a report of the field survey of the November 15, 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines, tsunami generated by an earthquake (M=7.0) with a strike-slip motion. We will report runup heights from 54 locations on Luzon, Mindoro and other smaller islands in the Cape Verde passage between Mindoro and Luzon. Most of the damage was concentrated along the northern coast of Mindoro. Runup height distribution ranged 3–4 m at the most severely damaged areas and 2–4 in neighboring areas. The tsunami-affected area was limited to within 10 km of the epicenter. The largest recorded runup value of 7.3 m was measured on the southwestern coast of Baco Island while a runup of 6.1 m was detected on its northern coastline. The earthquake and tsunami killed 62 people, injured 248 and destroyed 800 houses. As observed in other recent tsunami disasters, most of the casualties were children. Nearly all eyewitnesses interviewed described the first wave as a leading-depression wave. Eyewitnesses reported that the main direction of tsunami propagation was SW in Subaang Bay, SE in Wawa and Calapan, NE on Baco Island and N on Verde Island, suggesting that the tsunami source area was in the southern Pass of Verde Island and that the wave propagated rapidly in all directions. The fault plane extended offshore to the N of Mindoro Island, with its rupture originating S of Verde Island and propagating almost directly south to the inland of Mindoro, thereby accounting for the relatively limited damage area observed on the N of Mindoro.     

Tsunami trapping near circular islands

Trapping of long water waves that are induced by submarine earthquakes and that attack circular islands is studied by applying a theoretical model (Tinti andVannini, 1994) that is based on the linear shallow water approximation. The solution is computed as the superposition of the eigenmodes of the water basin. The tsunami trapping is seen in terms of the capability of the source to excite the trapped eigenmodes of the basin. The bottom depth dependence around the island is shown to be quite important in determining the trapping capability of the island: a depth profile that is downwardly concave as the distance from the island coasts increases is substantially more efficient in amplifying the incoming waves and in trapping their energy than a profile exhibiting an upward concavity.     

Tsunami hazard in the shorelines of Khark island (Persian Gulf), Iran

Iran is located in one of the seismically active regions of the world. Due to the high probability of earthquakes throughout the country and the potential for tsunami inundation along the coasts and offshore, comprehensive studies on the interaction of these natural phenomena are necessary. In this study, the most conservative scenarios are determined for possible earthquakes within the Khark zone (Persian Gulf) based on experimental relations between the fault length, magnitude and displacement, which are parameters for determining tsunamigenic sources. Subsequently, the maximum height of tsunami waves are calculated based on the specifications of the seismic source and its distance from the shore as well as the coastal slope. A zoning map of tsunami hazard is finally presented.