Betts对流调整方案在移动套网格台风数值模式中的初步试验

Betts对流调整方案采用的是垂直温湿场向观测的准平衡热力结构松驰的方法。本文在一个考虑了台风初值化的移动套网格台风数值模式中,对Betts方案进行了初步试验。结果表明：Betts方案能较好的预报出台风移动的路径和降水过程,并在台风路径、降水落区预报以及对流增温的垂直分布等方面都略优于Kuo方案的预报结果。     

Coupling mechanisms between equatorial waves and cumulus convection in an AGCM

In this study, we focused on the difference in appearances of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in a simulation with the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM, between two experiments, one with and the other without implementation of the convective suppression scheme (CSS) in the prognostic Arakawa–Schubert cumulus parameterization. Realistic CCEW modes, i.e., Kelvin, Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and n = 0 eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) wave modes, were reproduced in the with-CSS experiment, while only Rossby-wave-like signals appeared in the without-CSS experiment.By comparing the structures of the Kelvin wave mode and the Rossby wave mode in two runs, it was suggested that the structural difference between these two modes in conjunction with the difference in the controlling factor of cumulus convection determines the CCEW features. The CSS implemented here is such that cumulus convection is suppressed until the cloud-layer-averaged relative humidity exceeds the threshold of 80%. In the without-CSS model, only Rossby wave modes are coupled with the convection. This is because CAPE controls cumulus convection in this model, and the larger frictional convergence of Rossby wave mode prepares CAPE to generate favorable condition for cumulus convection. In the case of the with-CSS model, on the other hand, cumulus convection is largely controlled by the humidity in the free atmosphere. The convergence associated with the equatorial waves can produce the moisture anomaly to overcome the relative humidity threshold, and maintains the favorable condition for cumulus convection once it starts. In this case, not only Rossby waves but also Kelvin, MRG, and n = 0 EIG waves are reproduced more realistically. It is suggested that inclusion of some kind of mechanism connecting the free tropospheric moisture with the convection under the condition of abundant convective available potential energy could be a key factor for realistic coupling between large-scale atmospheric waves and convection.     

Numerical prediction of an intense convective system associated with the July 1987 montreal flood. part I: Gravity waves and the squall line

Abstract

In this study, a 24‐h high‐resolution numerical prediction of a prefrontal squall line associated with the 14 July 1987 Montreal flood is employed to investigate the origin and role of mesoscale gravity waves in the development of the squall system. The 24‐h integration using an improved mesoscale version of the Canadian regional finite‐element model is first validated against available observations; then non‐observable features are diagnosed to reveal the relationship between deep convection and gravity wave events. It is shown that the model reproduces well many aspects of the squall line, such as the propagation and organization of the convective system, as well as its associated precipitation. It is found that gravity waves are first excited near Lake Erie, following the initiation of early convective activity. Then, these waves propagate eastward and northeastward at speeds of 20 and 35 m s^‐1, respectively. As the waves propagate downstream, deep convection radiates rapidly behind the wave trough axis, forming a long line of squall convection. Because the squall line moves with the gravity waves in a “phase‐locked” manner, deep convection has a significant influence on the structure and amplitude of the gravity waves. The sensitivity of the wave‐squall prediction to various parameters in convective parameterization is also examined.     

Variability of precipitation intensity: sensitivity to treatment of moist convection in an RCM and a GCM

The present study investigates the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation rates to the closure employed in the penetrative mass flux cumulus parameterization of Zhang and McFarlane in the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) and in the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis third generation global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM3). The effects of an alternative prognostic closure for mass flux cumulus parameterization in place of the original diagnostic closure are investigated. A set of experiments is performed in which changes in the frequency distribution of precipitation rates and cloud base mass-flux are examined as a function of the parameters that define each closure scheme. The relationship between the frequency distribution of precipitation and cloud base mass flux is examined and a self-consistent relation is found when the depth of convection is taken into account. Experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor relatively strong cloud base mass-flux and deep penetrative convection with relatively more intense convective precipitation. The mean of the frequency distribution of convective precipitation is larger and the heavier events become more intense. Also, experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor less frequent convective activity. However these changes in the distribution of convective component of precipitation are generally offset by opposite changes in the distribution of the resolved large-scale component of precipitation, resulting in relatively smaller changes in total precipitation. The altered partition of precipitation between convective and large-scale components is found to alter the energy balance and the thermodynamic equilibrium structure of the troposphere. The robustness found in the CRCM results regarding the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to changes in the closure of the deep convection parameterization is investigated by performing a similar analysis of AGCM3 simulations. A remarkable similarity of AGCM3 and CRCM results is found suggesting that the closure sensitivity identified in this study is robust.     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL DEEP CONVECTION USING WRF MODEL

The Weather Research Forecast model (WRF) configured with high resolution and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data were used to simulate the development of a tropical deep convection over the Tiwi Islands,northern Australia,and to investigate the sensitivity of model results to model configuration and parameterization schemes of microphysical processes.The simulation results were compared with available measurements.The results show that the model can reproduce most of the important characteristics of the observed diurnal evolution of the convection,including the initiation of convection along the sea-breeze front,which is then reinforced by downdraft outflows,merging of cells and the formation of a deep convective system.However,further improvement is needed to simulate more accurately the location and the time for initiation of the deep convective system.Sensitivity tests show that double-nesting schemes are more accurate than the non-nesting schemes in predicting the distribution and intensity of precipitation as far as this particular case is concerned.Additionally,microphysical schemes also have an effect on the simulated amount of precipitation.It is shown that the best agreement is reached between the simulation results and observations when the Purdue Lin scheme is used.     

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent simulated by a spectral cumulus parameterization

The validity of a spectral cumulus parameterization (spectral scheme) for simulating a diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) was examined using a regional atmospheric model. The impacts of entrainment parameterization and each type of convective closure, i.e., non-equilibrium (or equilibrium) closure for deep convection, mid-level, and shallow convective closures, were also examined. When vertically variable entrainment and appropriate convective closures were employed, the model adequately simulated a diurnal cycle of precipitation over both land and ocean as compared to the observation. Analysis regarding the entrainment parameterization revealed that variable entrainment parameterization was needed not only for simulating better mean patterns of precipitation, but also for more realistic phases of diurnal cycles. The impacts of convective closures appeared in the differences in the precipitation amplitude. Analysis on diurnal cycles of convective properties and tendencies revealed that the cycles between boundary layer forcing and convective heating determined convection strength and were affected by each type of convective closure. It can be concluded that the spectral scheme with appropriate convective closures is able to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle over the MC.     

Role of convective parameterization in simulations of heavy precipitation systems at grey-zone resolutions — case studies

We have investigated the role of convective parameterization in simulations of heavy precipitation systems at grey-zone (2–10 km) resolutions using an approach similar to that used in “observing system simulation experiment”. Simulations with a 1-km grid serve as benchmark simulations. The impacts of convective parameterization at greyzone resolutions (i.e., 3, 6, and 9 km) are then investigated. This study considers two heavy precipitation systems including one associated with a mesoscale cyclone generated over the Shandong Peninsula on 24–25 July 1991, and the other associated with a cloud cluster occurred on 15–16 July 2009. The present study indicates that convective parameterization does not affect much the simulations of the two heavy precipitation systems with 3-km grid size. However, it significantly affects simulations for grid sizes of 6 and 9 km. Simulations with the Kain-Fritsch scheme produce deficiencies such as relatively small heavy rainfall area, smaller maximum precipitation rate, wider area of weak precipitation, etc. Simulations without convective parameterization have also some negative effects such as the overprediction of area-averaged precipitation rate and others. A modified trigger function in the Kain-Fritsch scheme is found to improve the simulations of the heavy precipitation systems over the Korean Peninsula by reducing excessive trigger of convection, especially for simulations with 6- and 9- km grids.     

LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection

Based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. This LMDZ5B version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-Gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by re-evaporation of convective precipitation. The triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. An available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. The individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. Here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3D atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the IPSL-CM5B coupled model. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous LMDZ5A version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. Improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3D model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. The variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in LMDZ5B at intraseasonal time-scales. Significant biases of the LMDZ5A model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. The paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3D climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations.     

面向四维变分资料同化的NSAS积云深对流参数化方案的简化及线性化研究

GRAPES全球四维变分资料同化系统需要积云深对流参数化方案的线性化与伴随方案,直接采用原始复杂参数化方案进行线性化并不可行,需要发展简化光滑方案来减缓非线性与非连续性特征。GRAPES全球模式采用NSAS积云对流参数化方案,积云深对流对环境的反馈主要通过补偿下沉来实现,研究突出补偿下沉作用,忽略降水蒸发、动量反馈等贡献,形成简化方案。采用输入温、湿度廓线加入不同幅度小扰动方法,评估参数化方案计算的温度、比湿时间倾向对输入扰动的敏感性,检验非线性与非连续特征。提出避免或减缓非连续“开关”的方法,在简化方案的基础上发展了简化光滑方案。简化光滑方案与原始积云深对流方案相比,在对流触发上一致,在对流的位温与比湿倾向、降水的时序模拟等方面相似,而在减缓非线性、避免非连续性方面显著优于原始方案。基于简化光滑方案发展的线性化方案表明,对小于2倍分析增量幅度的扰动,线性化方案可以较好地模拟非线性方案的扰动发展。发展的简化光滑方案具有合理性和实用性。      

Some evidence on the relationship between the South American monsoon and the Atlantic ITCZ

The seasonal variations of convection associated with the South American monsoon system (SAMS) are analyzed using pentad means of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data during the 1979–2006 period. The data is filtered for the 0.4–1.2 year scale and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied. The results provide three dominant modes with distinct convective features, which are referred to as: equatorially antisymmetric, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and symmetric modes. The first two modes vary in an annual scale, and the latter one in a semiannual scale. The evolving aspects of these modes are studied by correlating (lagged and simultaneously) the principal component of each mode and the filtered OLR time series. The antisymmetric and the ITCZ modes evolve smoothly into each other reflecting the northwestward and northeastward propagation of convective activity. The propagation rates vary depending on development stage and region considered. On the other hand, the symmetric mode with the largest convective activity in the western Amazon evolves independently, and depicts the transition from dry to wet seasons and vice-versa.     

Convection in PIDCAP Part II: DIAMOD — A standard for diagnosing convective quantities

Summary For the purpose of specifying the strength of atmospheric convection we review how correlation fluxes and phase transition terms are generated from first principles, i.e., from a thermodynamic set of equations. They may be used either for a forecast (prognostic mode) or for an analysis (diagnostic mode). We identify the total convective heat flux c as key parameter for quantifying convection. Other convective quantities can be derived from c. In the prognostic mode the convective quantities are parameterized. In the diagnostic mode they are indirectly inferred. Here we concentrate on the diagnostic mode. We review how c can be estimated from the routinely analyzed gridscale budget of moist enthalpy by solving a first-order linear differential equation, referred to as convection equation. A novel aspect of the present standard of the convection equation is that the ice phase has now been included. The pertinent algorithm runs under the acronym DIAMOD (diagnostic model). The difference to a LAM is that DIAMOD takes the gridscale tendency as observed input while in a LAM it is output. We demonstrate the use of c (and of the net condensation rate CON) through an observation simulation experiment. Gridscale budget data from a forecast run with the Deutschland–Modell are taken as perfect input for DIAMOD; we study the corresponding output for several approximations of the convection quation. The vertical profiles of c (and to a lesser extent those of CON) are relatively robust and precise (error margins of a few percent) while the accuracy of the other convective quantities is inferior. Conclusion is that parameterization schemes of different LAMs can be compared with each other as well as validated in terms of c and CON. Application of this technique has been demonstrated in Part I of this study. Received January 8, 2001 Revised April 26, 2001     

THE LIMITATION OF CLOUD-BASE MASS FLUX IN CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL

A large area of unrealized precipitation is produced with the standard convective parameterization scheme in a high-resolution model, while subgrid-scale convection that cannot be explicitly resolved is omitted without convective parameterization. A modified version of the convection scheme with limited mass flux at cloud base is introduced into a south-China regional high-resolution model to alleviate these problems. A strong convection case and a weak convection case are selected to analyze the influence of limited cloud-base mass flux on precipitation forecast. The sensitivity of different limitation on mass flux at cloud base is also discussed. It is found that using instability energy closure for Simplified Arakawa- Schubert Scheme will produce better precipitation forecast than the primary closure based on quasi-equilibrium assumption. The influence of the convection scheme is dependent on the upper limit of mass flux at cloud base. The total rain amount is not so sensitive to the limitation of mass flux in the strong convection case as in the weak one. From the comparison of two different methods for limiting the cloud-base mass flux, it is found that shutting down the cumulus parameterization scheme completely when the cloud-base mass flux exceeds a given limitation is more suitable for the forecast of precipitation.     

低层环境风场对积云模拟的作用

采用二维和三维完全弹性参数化冷云数值模式模拟研究了低层单向切变风场中积云的发展演变过程和地面降水特征。结果表明:在低层切变风场中，用热泡扰动方式激发对流的启动条件提高，而冷出流方式激发对流则更加容易。适当强度的低层切变使对流峰值强度减小，但积云生命史延长，地面累计总降水量增大，雨区拓宽，峰值雨强则减小。采用二维模式来模拟单向切变风场的对流活动虽然存在严重歪曲，但积云最大升速以及地面总降水随时间的演变特征与三维模拟结果一致。     

A one-dimensional model for the parameterization of deep convection in the ocean

A one-dimensional penetrative plume model has been constructed to parameterize the process of deep convection in ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). This research is motivated by the need for OGCMs to better model the production of deep and intermediate water masses. The parameterization scheme takes the temperature and salinity profiles of OGCM grid boxes and simulates the subgrid-scale effects of convection using a one-dimensional parcel model. The model moves water parcels from the surface layer down to their level of neutral buoyancy, simulating the effect of convective plumes. While in transit, the plumes exchange water with the surrounding environment; however, the bulk of the plume water mass is deposited at e level of neutral buoyancy. Weak upwelling around the plumes is included to maintain an overall mass balance. The process continues until the negative buoyant energy of the one-dimensional vertical column is minimized. The parameterized plume entrainment rate, which plays a central role in the parameterization, is calculated using modified equations based on the physics of entraining buoyant plumes. This scheme differs from the convective adjustment techniques currently used in OGCMs, because the parcels penetrate downward with the appropriate degree of mixing until they reach their level of neutral stability.     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

一次江淮气旋及其中尺度系统的数值模拟

本文在十一层原始方程模式中引入Fritsch-Chappell一维云模式，对1982年5月12日江淮气旋上中尺度系统进行了模拟试验，分析表明:Fritsch-Chappell一维云模式对深厚积云的考虑细致合理，比郭晓岚积云参数化方案优越，它能模拟出中尺度系统的一些特征。通过数值计算发现:中尺度江淮气旋是对流层低层的天气系统，气压场上具有中尺度低压的某些特征；对流天气的出现，使得中尺度江淮气旋得到发展，但这种发展有一个变化过程，在对流发展加强时，对流引起的动量变化以及下沉气流造成的低层冷却作用，使其有一个暂时的减弱过程，当对流运动趋于减弱时，气旋才得以发展。     

Diagnostic analyses of convective events — The effect of propagating gust fronts

This paper is devoted to the testing experiment of a postprocessing tool aimed at the objective analysis of propagating gust fronts in a given convective environment. The tool is being developed to be applicable in the operational mode by utilizing NWP model outputs. The experiment was carried out on two summer convective cases which occurred in the Czech Republic. The cases were numerically simulated by the limited area NWP model LM COSMO with the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. They represent different types of convective systems, both accompanied by objectively identifiable gust fronts and causing heavy precipitation. The event from July 2000 was characterised by the development of isolated thunderstorms. The other event from July 1998 was a long-lasting and organised convective system — a squall line. The hypothesis was that the developed postprocessing tool is capable to evaluate the role which downdraft outflows played in the decay and initiation of convective cells by interaction with convective environment and thus in prolongation of convection lifetime.The procedures of the Objective Analysis of Gust Fronts (OAGF) were applied to the thermodynamic outputs of the LM COSMO. The aim was to determine the position of gust fronts within the domain and to assess their speed of movement and the potential to initiate convection according to the properties of ambient vertical shear and stability as well as humidity conditions ahead of the respective downdraft outflows. In addition, the Radar Simulation Model (RSM) was employed to monitor the simulated convective systems in arbitrary PPI and RHI scans and to verify qualitatively the LM COSMO precipitation forecasts.The case studies has confirmed the applicability of the LM COSMO–OAGF chain and RSM, which may represent the potential for improving the operational nowcasting of hazardous convection phenomena. In both simulations, the objective gust fronts moved on into the vertical shear-favourable environment for triggering new convection. In addition to the dynamical organisation, there were also favourable stability and humidity conditions in the area of forced upward motions in the simulation of the event from July 2000.     

The role of shallow convection in the water and energy cycles of the atmosphere

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM4) is used to study the role of shallow convection in the hydrologic and energy cycles of the atmosphere. Sensitivity tests with AGCM4 show a marked effect of the parameterization of shallow convection in the model. In particular, including the parameterization of shallow convection produces considerably enhanced vertical mixing and decreased stratiform cloud amounts in the lower subtropical atmosphere over the oceans. The differences in simulated stratiform cloud amounts are associated with a change in the globally averaged outgoing shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere of about 11 W m⁻². Additionally, precipitation rates are considerably reduced for stratiform clouds and enhanced for convective clouds in the subtropics, if the parameterization of shallow convection is included in the model. Additional tests show that the simulated responses in cloud amounts and precipitation to the treatment of shallow convection are robust. Additional simulations with modified closures for deep convection and other changes to the treatment of convection in the model still lead to similar responses of the model results.     

中尺度对流系统演变中的一些非平衡动力学问题

深厚湿对流运动发展机制包含湿大气的对称不稳定(MSI和CSI)及锋面环流．它们需要的基本条件是不稳定、水汽和抬升，这些机理在动力学中是有联系和区别的，即虽然都是与基流平衡状态被破坏后引起的中尺度环流有关，但是扰动流非平衡运动是不同的。本文综合概述了有关平衡动力学的研究进展，提出了中尺度对流系统演变中的一些非平衡动力学主要问题，并评述了一些研究的方法及主要结论和尚需进一步探索的方面．以加深对不同机制下深对流运动的认识。     

Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model

Abstract

A simplified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in GCMs, is presented. This parameterization is based on a plume ensemble concept similar to that originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert (1974). However, it employs three assumptions which significantly simplify the formulation and implementation of the scheme. It is assumed that an ensemble of convective‐scale updrafts with associated saturated downdrafts may exist when the atmosphere is locally conditionally unstable in the lower troposphere. However, the updraft ensemble is comprised only of those plumes which are sufficiently buoyant to penetrate through this unstable layer. It is assumed that all such plumes have the same upward mass flux at the base of the convective layer. The third assumption is that moist convection, which occurs only when there is convective available potential energy (CAPE) for reversible ascent of an undiluted parcel from the sub‐cloud layer, acts to remove CAPE at an exponential rate with a specified adjustment time scale.

The performance of the scheme and its sensitivity to choices of disposable parameters is illustrated by presenting results from a series of idealized single‐column model tests. These tests demonstrate that the scheme permits establishment of a quasi‐equilibrium between large‐scale forcing and convective response. However, it is also shown that the strength of convective downdrafts is an important factor in determining the nature of the equilibrium state. Relatively strong down‐drafts give rise to an unsteady irregularly fluctuating state characterized by alternate periods of deep and shallow convection.

The effect of using the scheme for GCM climate simulations is illustrated by presenting selected results of a multi‐year simulation carried out with the Canadian Climate Centre GCM using the new parameterization (the CONV simulation). Comparison of these results with those for a climate simulation made with the standard model (the CONTROL simulation, as documented by McFarlane et al., 1992) reveals the importance of other parameterized processes in determining the ultimate effect of introducing the new convective scheme. The radiative response to changes in the cloudiness regime is particularly important in this regard.