热带东风急流的演变特征及其与亚非降水的关系

为初步了解热带东风急流与亚非降水尤其中国东部、华南地区天气系统之间的关系,利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,结合全球综合分析降水集(CMAP)及Ni o3.4海温指数,采用突变检验、小波分析、相关分析、合成分析等方法,对TEJ的结构、演变特征及其与亚非地区降水和大气环流的关系等进行研究。分析表明:TEJ从南海上空向西延伸,经印度到达非洲北部上空,中心位于印度半岛南端、阿拉伯海上空。利用"区域平均"法,定义了热带东风急流指数(TEJI),讨论了该指数62年的年际、年代际变化特征,并分析了TEJI与亚非降水、大气环流及ENSO的关系,结果表明:TEJ呈现强度一致减弱趋势,且突变大致发生在1978年;小波分析表明标准化TEJI存在准10年振荡周期;主要降水带出现在急流入口区右侧和出口区左侧,降水主要位于南亚和东亚季风区内;亚非季风区夏季降水与TEJ响应最敏感的区域是西亚、北非(负相关)、南亚(正相关);海平面气压场和南亚高压与TEJ密切相关,对中国东部和华南地区的旱涝预报起着重要的作用。     

长江中下游持续性异常降水的天气学特征分析

针对长江中下游持续性降水的研究多为个例诊断,很少从合成的角度考虑,利用长江中下游地区89站的1961~2011年的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,采用数理统计和合成分析的方法,统计长江中下游地区夏季持续性降水事件,并合成分析了其环流特征。结果表明:1961~2011年,长江中下游地区夏季持续性异常降水事件发生了50次,主要集中在6月和7月,长江中下游地区持续性异常降水事件平均每2~3年发生一次。厄尔尼诺次年多有持续性异常降水发生;长江中下游地区持续性异常事件发生时,总伴有环流场的异常调整,低纬西太平洋副热带高压西伸,南北经向风在长江流域交汇,高层上,南亚高压东移,长江中下游地区出现强的辐散中心,为异常降水提供了重要条件。水汽来源主要是索马里越赤道气流途径暖湿的阿拉伯海,孟加拉湾和我国南海北部,进入长江中下游地区。     

亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流的关系

为研究亚非夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其与热带东风急流的相关性,利用1948-2008年61年NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解和奇异值分解等方法讨论了亚非夏季风降水的变化及其与热带东风急流的关系。结果表明：从包括撒赫勒在内的北非地区到印度西北部、青藏高原南部,直到中国华北东北地区,是亚非夏季降水的最主要的空间分布型式。亚非夏季风降水总体呈现出逐年递减的趋势。多年亚非季风区夏季降水分布与热带东风急流的强度有密切关系,在急流不同部位降水特征不同。亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流呈显著正相关,二者的分布趋势在极大程度上吻合。     

南风气流对四川盆地西部突发性暴雨影响的数值试验

用η模式对１９９５年８月２４日四川盆地西部的突发性暴雨，进行了数值模拟和南风减速的数值试验。由模拟和试验比较分析得出以下几点认识：１．对流层低层的云南、贵州到四川南部南风气流的加大，对四川盆地西部的暴雨区，特别是大暴雨区的扩大和强度的增强起着重要作用。２．由南风气流的加强造成暴雨加强的动、热力机制主要是，使暴雨区及其附近区域上空，对流层的中、低层流场的辐合、上升运动加强；对流层的低层形成水汽通量的辐合区。３．对流层低层南风气流的加强，可影响对流层中层的暖湿程度减弱，从而加强了对流层低－中层内的对流性不稳定     

琼东海域沉积物元素组成变化揭示的全新世华南地区风化强度演变

【目的】探讨全新世以来华南地区陆地化学风化强度的变化及其控制因素。【方法】利用琼东海域沉积柱GH7的XRF扫描元素数据,从主量和微量元素中提取代表陆源输入的主成分PC1,分析华南沿海地区化学风化强度。【结果与结论】风化强度在13.2 ka BP以来经历了“强（13.2—7.5 ka BP）—弱（7.5—3.0 ka BP）—强（3.0—0 ka BP）”的变化,并在全球冷事件新仙女木、9.2 ka和8.2 ka时期均有明显减弱。PC1变化显示华南沿海地区风化强度大约在3 ka BP处于最强期,反映此时降雨量处于最大期,可能与热带辐合带（ITCZ）在此时期南移至低纬度有关。PC1频谱分析揭示风化强度存在一个约2 ka的周期,与厄尔尼诺（ENSO）周期一致,说明华南地区风化强度演变在千年尺度上很可能受ITCZ南移和ENSO的共同调控。     

南亚高压多年平均变化特征

为了掌握南亚高压活动变化的一般规律,为中长期天气预报提供新的预报思路。利用Fortran数据处理及DrADS等绘图工具处理1960~2010年NCEP/NCAR逐日及月平均再分析高度场资料,水平分辨率为2.5°×2.5°经纬网格,并依据大气环流观测事实及天气学原理,系统地分析了南亚高压多年平均变化特征。结果表明:南亚高压强度、中心位置经纬度及东伸脊点存在明显的季节性变化特征。具体表现如下:从当年1-7月-翌年1月,南亚高压中心强度呈由弱-最强-弱的波动变化特征;冬季南亚高压主体位于西太平洋,而在春季北跳上亚洲大陆,但未形成闭合高压中心,夏季南亚高压主体位于亚欧大陆-西太平洋,成为100hPa上最强大最稳定的闭合环流系统;冬季,其主体位置东退至120°E以东的洋面。南亚高压初次形成闭合中心的时间为5月第1侯;初次上青藏高原的平均时间是6月第1候;退出亚洲大陆的时间为11月第2侯。南亚高压东伸脊点的东西位移在夏季的7月和8月也有周期为10天左右的明显振荡周期变化特征。     

1011号台风“凡亚比”粤西暴雨二次加强过程的分析

为了能够深入了解1011号台风"凡亚比"粤西暴雨过程发生发展机制,采用天气学诊断方法、Ncep1°×1°再分析资料和观测降水资料对凡亚比登陆后在广东西部地区造成的两次暴雨过程进行了研究。通过初步诊断分析得到以下结论:粤西暴雨二次增强的主要原因是强冷空气侵入和水汽输送增加,二次增强过程偏南风主导的水汽条件造成了暴雨增强。假相当位温的垂直剖面显示暴雨主要发生在等值线密集陡峭的区域,等值线的斜率增加对暴雨二次增强有指示作用。湿位涡在暴雨区为上正下负的垂直分布形式,对流层上层高值位涡向下传递,高层干冷空气与低层暖湿气流交汇促使降水增加。     

湾流区和黑潮区两个超强爆发性气旋发展过程中热力强迫作用的比较

【目的】分析湾流区和黑潮区两个超强爆发性气旋在快速发展过程中热力强迫的作用差异。【方法】使用两种再分析数据,结合Zwack-Okossi诊断方程,对比分析热力强迫因子在两超强爆发性气旋发展中的空间结构特征和演变特征。【结果与结论】在两超强爆发性气旋快速发展的过程中,湾流区超强(SU-GS)爆发性气旋的水汽辐合和显热均弱于黑潮区超强(SU-KS)爆发性气旋。Zwack-Okossi方程诊断分析表明,非绝热加热是SU-GS爆发性气旋和SU-KS爆发性气旋爆发性发展的主要强迫因子,且主要分布于中低层,但非绝热加热的演变及贡献存在差异;在初始爆发时刻,SU-KS爆发性气旋的非绝热加热显著强于SU-GS爆发性气旋,且对其快速发展的贡献较大;至最大加深率时刻,SU-GS爆发性气旋的非绝热加热显著增强,是其快速发展的主导强迫因子,而SU-KS爆发性气旋的非绝热加热呈现减弱趋势,对其相对重要性减弱。     

基于CMONOC的GNSS水汽短时频域特征研究

利用2016年中国大陆构造环境监测网络的GNSS数据开展水汽短时频域特征研究,按气候类型将中国大陆地区划分为5个区域,并在每个区域中随机抽取若干个站点采用快速傅里叶变换方法进行分析,提取不同季节的GNSS水汽周期特征。结果表明,各类站点的水汽频域特征存在明显的区域性变化和季节性差异;高原山地气候、热带季风气候和亚热带季风气候类型的GNSS站点的周期性变化显著;热带季风地区、亚热带季风地区及沿海地区水汽振幅较大,高原山地和温带大陆地区水汽振幅较小。     

东亚副热带西风急流的时间演变特征及其与中国东部夏季降水的关系

为深入了解东亚副热带西风急流与中国天气系统之间的联系,利用1961-2007年美国国家环境预报中心（NCAR／NCEP）再分析月资料和同期中国596站的降水资料,运用经一纬向急流轴和区域平均两种定义方法分析了西风急流的时间演变特征及其与中国东部降水型的关系,结果表明：（1）两种方法对西风急流东西、南北位置转折时段的分析很接近,分别出现在20世纪80年代和70年代;对西风急流强度、南北位置周期的表征也很一致,分别为10-15年和5-10年。（2）当西风急流位置偏北（南）时,东部地区整层大气环流呈“南北上升中间下沉（南北下沉中间上升）”的形势,850hPa的流场和水汽通量输送都有利于华北地区（江淮河流）的降水,易于形成“南北多中间少（南北少中间多）”的雨带分布,推测这两种反相位雨型的间隔时间为2．5-5年;相比之下,急流东西位置和强度的周期性变化与东部局地降水存在一定联系。     

南海北部近海柱状沉积物多环芳烃组成及来源分析

【目的】研究南海北部近海区域柱状沉积物多环芳烃组成及分布特征,讨论全新世早期火历史及气候变化。【方法】利用AMS ¹⁴C定年技术结合有机地球化学分析手段对全新世早期南海北部近海沉积物柱状样品中多环芳烃(PAHs)分布特征进行研究。【结果】南海北部近海沉积物中16种PAHs总浓度范围为8.58~17.48 ng/g,在约10000 a B.P.的全新世早期呈现先增大后减小波动变化,与TOC变化基本同步。【结论】沉积物中多环芳烃主要来源于南海北部近海陆源区域自然火灾产生的焦炭残渣。PAHs的沉积浓度变化间接指示了全新世早期东亚季风的强度变化。     

Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Southern Flood and Northern Drought’ pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Northern Flood and Southern Drought’ pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the ’Silk Road’ teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.     

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.     

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002. The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented. The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice, that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area. The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer (June-August) precipitation in China. The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south, and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin. While the winter index is positive (negative), the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier (later), with a probability of 79% (80%). Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.     

温度对马尾藻及其油页岩混合物热解产气特性的影响

【目的】研究马尾藻及其油页岩混合物在不同温度下的热解产气特性。【方法】利用燃烧烟气污染物测试实验台,测量马尾藻及其油页岩混合物在温度区间400℃至800℃下CO和H_2的排放特性,包括峰值浓度、峰值时间和平均浓度。【结果】马尾藻以及其油页岩混合物的热解过程可分为慢速析出、快速析出和降速三个阶段。马尾藻单独热解实验中,排放的CO体积分数峰值达到10 367×10~(-6)。温度的升高有利于马尾藻在热解中CO和H_2的析出,反应的开始时间和完成时间均有所提前。在马尾藻与油页岩混合物的热解中,H2的析出在700℃时达到最高(体积分数峰值为1 254×10~(-6))。油页岩的加入迟滞了CO和H_2的排放时间。【结论】油页岩的加入有效减少马尾藻热解过程中CO的排放并缩短反应时间,提高效率节省能源,马尾藻与油页岩的混合热解具有良好的应用前景。     

东海带鱼资源变动及其栖息地驱动因子研究进展

【目的】从栖息地角度解析东海带鱼种群变动的原因,揭示东海带鱼资源变动的主要影响因子。【方法】通过综述我国60多年的东海带鱼研究成果,从栖息地选择、种群数量年间波动、生物学变化等角度阐述东海带鱼对栖息地环境变化的适应性表现。【结果与结论】揭示东海带鱼“衰而不竭”除了与带鱼偏r-选择型的生活史特征和摄饵可塑性强的习性有关外,还与其较强的栖息地环境适应性有关,其中温度、盐度和饵料对带鱼的影响较明显。现阶段应重点从海流(温度、盐度)和关键饵料生物历史变化等角度揭示东海带鱼资源变动的原因,为东海带鱼资源保护和生境修复提供科学依据。     

Influence of the Eastern Indian Ocean Warm Pool Variability on the Spring Precipitation in China

The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool （EIWP） and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Sea Surface Temperature （SST） data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5^＊ latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）, and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow （70^＊-90^＊E） influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High （WNPSH） variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.     

中国鲉形目棘鲬属一新纪录种——丝鳍棘鲬

【目的】记述中国南海海域棘鲬属的一新纪录种,以厘定中国南海海域棘鲬属的分类。【方法】2019年4月于中国南海北部海域海南岛东南渔场采集棘鲬属样品,采用形态学鉴定方法研究其形态特征,描述其生态习性,编制中国棘鲬属分种检索表。【结果与结论】样品中有6尾为中国新纪录种——丝鳍棘鲬Hoplichthys filamentosus Matsubara&Ochiai,1950。主要特征:体延长,平扁,向后渐狭小,背缘低平,腹缘平直;背鳍VI,14~15;臀鳍17;胸鳍13+ⅲ;腹鳍Ⅰ-5;尾鳍17;侧线骨板27;鳃耙2+11~12;体具几条不明显深色横带;胸鳍具黑色斑点;第1背鳍分布黄色斑点,具黑色小点和黑边;第2背鳍中部分布黄色圆斑,每1鳍条根部具黄色圆斑;腹鳍白色,无斑纹;臀鳍无明显斑纹;尾鳍后缘具黑边,中部较随机分布黄色圆斑,下叶颜色较深。该种雌雄异形:1)雄性下颌骨腹外侧具棘,雌性则隐没皮下;2)雄性第2背鳍鳍条均显著延长呈丝状,雌性则无显著延长。