Numerical simulation of landslide dam breaching due to overtopping

The breach of landslide dam often causes significant disaster in the inundated area; the prediction of breach hydrograph is in high demand for the dam breach risk evaluation. In this study, according to the model tests and Tangjiashan landslide dam breach case, the surface erosion accompanied by intermittent mass failure is known as the key breaching mechanism for landslide dam due to overtopping failure. The downstream slope angle would gradually decrease during the dam-breaching process, whereas a planar wedge failure occurs when the breach slopes at the dam crest and downstream breach channel fail. Based on the breach mechanism, a numerical model for landslide dam breach due to overtopping is developed to simulate the coupling process of water and soil. The model focuses on the breach morphology evolution during the breaching for the sake of the improvement of breach hydrograph prediction. Furthermore, the model can handle one- and two-sided breach, as well as incomplete and base erosion at the vertical direction. The case study of Tangjiashan landslide dam-breaching feedback analysis testifies the rationality of the present model with the relative errors less than 10% for peak discharge, final breach widths, and time to peak. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the final breach depth and soil erodibility affect the breach flow prediction of the landslide dam significantly, whereas the one- or two-sided breach mode is less sensitive.     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

Partial breaching of Hattian Bala Landslide Dam formed in the 8th October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake, Pakistan

The 8th October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake of magnitude 7.6 triggered a huge landslide 3.5 km upstream of Hattian Bala town in the state of Azad Jammu Kashmir of Pakistan. The debris mass blocked two tributaries of the Karli branch of the Jhelum River and was breached on 9th February 2010. This debris dam provided us with a rare opportunity to keep careful and continuous eyes on its post-earthquake behavior especially as it was a serious threat to people living along the lower reaches of both the Karli and Jhelum Rivers. This paper describes post-formation behaviors of the debris mass, breaching-inflicted changes of not only the debris mass but also both upstream and downstream reaches based upon laser-scanned images of landforms and Differential Global Positioning System survey results.     

2018年10月和11月金沙江白格两次滑坡-堰塞堵江事件分析研究

2018年10月11日和11月3日,在西藏自治区江达县波罗乡白格村与四川省白玉县绒盖乡则巴村交界处金沙江西藏岸（右岸）先后两次发生大规模高位滑坡,堵塞金沙江,形成堰塞湖。尤其是第二次滑坡-堰塞堵江,因坝体过高（堰塞湖水位可到50 m）,堰塞湖库容较大（超过5×108 m3）,不得不通过修建导流槽主动降低堰塞湖水位。经过人工干预,第二次堰塞体于11月13日被完全冲开,险情得以解除,但下泄的洪水在下游四川、云南境内仍造成严重的洪涝灾害。本文通过对两次滑坡的现场地质调查,结合历史遥感影像解译、InSAR监测、无人机航拍、地面变形监测等技术手段,查明了白格滑坡区斜坡的变形历史、两次滑坡及其堰塞堵江的基本特征及其动态演化特征,简述了第二次滑坡-堰塞体的应急处置以及为保证现场施工安全所开展的"实战性"监测预警工作。在同一部位先后两次发生大规模滑坡堵江事件并对其采取了及时有效的应急处置,其案例非常典型,对类似地质灾害事件具有很好的参考借鉴意义。     

Dam-break risk analysis of the Attabad landslide dam in Pakistan and emergency countermeasures

The Attabad landslide dam caused significant property losses and many human casualties in Pakistan, and also greatly affected the operation of the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway (KKH). This paper discusses the risk of dam breach and hazards to the KKH project construction site following a dam breach. The paper examines the following three topics. (1) The geomorphologic dimensionless blockage index (DBI) and the analogy method were used to analyze the stability of the Attabad landslide dam. The long-term behaviors of landslide dams downstream of the Attabad landslide dam indicate that the risk of a dam breach exists, but the probability of a total dam failure is low. (2) The peak discharge of a potential breach of the Attabad landslide dam was calculated for scenarios in which 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and total failure of the dam was breached. The potential breach discharge decreases with the downstream distance. (3) The potential impacts of the landslide dam breach on the KKH project construction site were analyzed. Based on the composition of the landslide dam, the probability of a 1/3 dam breach is high. To ensure the safety of downstream areas, disaster preparedness plans that correspond to the 1/2 dam breach scenario should be developed. Based on experience in addressing the landslide dam that was caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake, artificial controlled drainage measures are suggested and provide a technical reference for addressing the Attabad landslide dam and achieving recovery and normal operation of KKH.     

堰塞坝漫顶溃决过程溃口纵向下切与溯源

为进一步了解堰塞坝溃坝过程,开展了9组水槽模型试验,对溃口纵向下切和溯源发展过程进行了系统分析,并讨论了上溯源点移动速度与溃口水深之间的关系。研究发现：非黏性堰塞坝溃坝过程中,冲刷面与底床的夹角时刻发生变化,上、下溯源点位置不固定但也不能完全发展到坝踵;上、下坡面坡度增大到最大值1：1.5时,下溯源点到下游坝趾的最大距离与坝体沿水流方向长度的比值（x_p^*/x_d^*,反映下溯源点最终相对位置）对应降低到最小值0.24和0.18;坝体相对尺寸从1减小到1/2时,x_p^*/x_d^*值从0.38增大到0.47。上溯源点的无量纲移动速度是不断变化的,在无量纲时刻为0.13时,其x,y分量分别达到峰值0.94和0.32;上溯源点处溃口水深出现时刻相对移动速度峰值点出现时刻有延迟,大概延迟0.04个无量纲时间。     

Analysis of human risks due to dam break floods—part 2: application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

The Tangjiashan landslide dam was formed during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and posed high risks to 1.2?million people downstream the dam. A human risk analysis model (HURAM) reported in the companion paper is applied to evaluate the human risk in the Tangjiashan landslide dam failure. The characteristics of this landslide dam are introduced first. The breaching parameters in two cases (i.e., the actual case and a high erodibility case) are predicted with a physically based model, and the flood routing processes in these two cases are simulated using numerical analysis. The population at risk downstream of the landslide dam is then obtained based on the results of the flood routing simulations. Subsequently, the human risks are analyzed with HURAM using Bayesian networks. Fourteen influence parameters and their interrelationships are considered in a systematic structure in the case study. A change in anyone of them may affect the other parameters and leads to loss of life. HURAM allows not only cause-to-result inference, but also result-to-cause inference by updating the Bayesian network with specific information from the study case. The uncertainties of the parameters and their relationships are studied both at the global level using multiple sources of information and at the local level by updating the prior probabilities.     

大渡河新华古滑坡体成因机制及稳定性研究

新华古滑坡体位于拟建水电站坝址线上游12km处,体积巨大,水库设计蓄水高程在滑体剪出口之上,且该区属高烈度区,滑体一旦失稳,可能造成涌浪、甚至堵江和堰塞溃坝,影响严重。目前,古滑体有拉裂缝等变形迹象,属滑移拉裂性质,且古滑坡变形属重力蠕滑性质。稳定性评价结果表明,在天然、暴雨、蓄水及水位骤降等工况下,滑体均处于基本稳定状态。而在考虑地震时,其稳定性迅速降低,滑体有可能整体失稳。     

易贡滑坡堰塞湖溃坝洪水分析

滑坡堰塞坝体主要由块石、碎石土等松散材料组成,随着上游水位的不断上升,极易失稳,一旦决口将对给下游人民的生命财产安全造成极大的威胁。因此,研究堰塞坝溃坝问题具有重要的学术意义和应用价值。2000 年 4 月 9 日,西藏林芝地区波密县易贡藏布河扎木弄沟发生大规模山体滑坡堵塞易贡藏布江,形成坝高60m,长约2500m,库容可达288108m3,体积约28108～30108m3的滑坡堰塞湖, 2000年6月10日堰塞坝溃决。本文以易贡堰塞湖溃坝为例,从连续性方程及Navier Stokes方程出发,结合标准型湍流模型,并采用VOF方法进行自由面处理,基于流体计算软件Fluent模拟分析了溃坝洪水在下游弯曲河道的演进过程及不同位置的流速变化。数值模拟结果与实测资料记录基本一致,表明该模型能够模拟溃坝洪水在地形复杂弯曲河道中的演进过程。     

Causes of catastrophic failure of Tam Pokhari moraine dam in the Mt. Everest region

The moraine dam of the Tam Pokhari glacial lake breached on 3 September 1998 and caused a catastrophic flood in the downstream areas. To learn from the event, a field survey was conducted. The survey team found that a landslide, which is considered to be responsible for the outburst flood, occurred in the northeast-facing slope of the moraine dam. The dam internal structure played a crucial role in forming a landslide that triggered the excess overflow and finally the breach of the dam. The internal structure of the dam was made of alternating layers of finer and coarser sediments inclining at 30° downstream and layers are truncated in the upslope direction by a huge pile of unconsolidated and structureless moraine materials. Since the upstream slope angle of the dam i.e., 40° is larger than the angle of repose i.e. 35° of sediments, the increased pore water pressure in the dam triggered a landslide. The rainfall and seismological activities of that particular day, which hit the record high, were crucial in triggering the failure. It is estimated that the dam’s north and northeast-facing slopes completely slid involving about 30,000 m³ of sediment mass of unconsolidated moraine materials above the shear plane. A slope stability analysis was also performed. The calculated safety factor was 0.85, and the calculated slip circle agreed with the shear plane marked in the dam. About 18 million cubic metres of water was swiftly released due to the sudden breach of the moraine dam.     

A systematic approach for the assessment of flooding hazard and risk associated with a landslide dam

Inundation caused by landslide dams may occur in the upstream and downstream of the dams. A proper flooding hazard assessment is required for reaction planning and decision-making to mitigate possible flooding hazards caused by landslide dams. Both quick and detailed procedures can be used to evaluate inundation hazards, depending on the available time and information. This paper presents a systematic approach for the assessment of inundation hazards and risks caused by landslide dam formation and breaches. The approach includes the evaluation of dam-breach probability, assessment of upstream inundation hazard, assessment of downstream inundation hazard, and the classification of flooding risk. The proposed assessment of upstream inundation estimates the potential region of inundation and predicts the overtopping time. The risk level of downstream flooding is evaluated using a joint consideration of the breach probability of a landslide dam and the level of flooding hazard, which is classified using a flooding hazard index that indicates the risk of potential inundation. This paper proposes both quick and detailed procedures for the assessments of inundation in both the upstream and downstream of a landslide dam. An example of a landslide dam case study in southern Taiwan was used to demonstrate the applicability of the systematic approach.     

考虑不同泄流槽方案的堰塞坝溃决机理分析——以唐家山堰塞坝为例

近年来,频发的地质构造活动和极端气候灾害诱发了大量堰塞坝,严重威胁上下游群众的生命财产安全。开挖泄流槽是最常用降低堰塞坝溃决风险的措施,由于时间非常急迫、交通极度瘫痪,其开挖量非常有限,因此如何利用有限的开挖量将溃坝风险降低至最小是亟待解决的问题。本文基于水土耦合冲刷机理,提出了考虑不同泄流槽方案的堰塞坝溃决机理分析方法,并应用于唐家山堰塞坝。该方法根据水力学参数和坝体抗冲刷性参数动态计算瞬时坝体冲刷率,进而分析泄流槽对溃决全过程的影响,从而自动获取最优的泄流槽设计方案。将此方法应用于唐家山堰塞坝案例发现:唐家山堰塞坝泄流槽最优设计时溃坝洪峰流量为1700m3·s-1,小于实际峰值流量6500m3·s-1,主要是因为增大泄流槽的纵坡率,显著增强溃坝前的冲刷并形成双洪峰,从而有效降低了溃决峰值流量。由于复合槽相对较小的水力半径限制了溃坝前的冲刷,使得临溃时水位较高,因此溃坝峰值流量比单槽大,溃坝风险降低效果不如单槽。     

中等倾角岩层顺向坡滑坡发育特征及形成机制分析

中等倾角岩层顺向坡,受坡体结构和岩体物理力学性质控制,多存在变形、崩塌、滑坡等工程地质问题,常常会诱发大规模的地质灾害。该类斜坡潜在滑动面不直接出露地表,一般具有变形机制复杂、隐蔽性强和危害大的特点,是滑坡领域关注与研究的重点。拖担水库大坝左岸为一古滑坡,在水库扩建开挖过程中,诱发古滑坡体复活。在分析古滑坡工程地质条件的基础上,结合地质勘察和变形监测结果,研究了其变形特征及形成机制。研究结果表明:①左岸古滑坡具有岩层倾角“上陡下缓”、滑体底部存在反倾坡内的剪切破碎带、滑床岩体产生弧状弯曲的特点;②古滑坡体为一基岩顺层滑坡,滑动模式为“滑移（弯曲）—剪断”型,其变形破坏过程包括三个阶段:弯曲隆起阶段、滑移剪出阶段和扰动变形阶段;③该类斜坡变形破坏后,坡体易沿“上陡下缓”的椅型软弱层面发生二次滑动,滑坡控制关键是对下部变形区的保护。     

Combined numerical investigation of the Gangda paleolandslide runout and associated dam breach flood propagation in the upper Jinsha River,SE Tibetan Plateau

A large paleolandslide occurred opposite the Gangda village in the upper Jinsha River, SE Tibetan Plateau. Field geological investigations and remote sensing indicated that the Gangda paleolandslide once blocked the Jinsha River. Evidence of river blocking, including landslide dam relics, upstream lacustrine sediments, and downstream outburst sediments, has been well preserved. To understand the river-blocking event including landslide, dam breach, and associated outburst flooding, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and numerical simulations were performed in this study. OSL dating results showed that the paleolandslide dam was formed at 5.4?±?0.5 ka BP and breached at 3.4?±?0.3 ka BP, indicating that the dam lasted approximately 2000 years. The discrete element method was used to simulate the dynamics of the Gangda rock landslide based on the restored topography, while a fluid–solid coupling model was performed to simulate the landslide dam breaching and flooding. The fluid–solid coupling model can simultaneously reflect the process of landslide-dam collapse and the propagation of outburst flood. The simulated results indicate that the whole landslide process lasted about 60 s with a peak velocity of 38 m/s. It is significant that the simulated morphology of the residual landslide dam and downstream outburst sediments is consistent with the field observations. The combined numerical investigation in this paper provided new insights into the research of landscape evolution and helped to understand the chain disaster of landslide, dam breach, and flooding.

     

Out-burst flood (lahar) triggered by retrogressive landsliding, 18 March 2007 at Mt Ruapehu,New Zealand—a successful early warning

The summit crater of Mt Ruapehu volcano normally hosts a 15.4-ha warm lake, whose water has been repeatedly wholly or partly ejected by explosive and extrusive eruptions. Some of the larger eruptions have modified the lake outlet by burying it under unconsolidated tephra (volcanic ash and blocks), creating a dam-break flood hazard independently of the occurrence of an eruption. Eruptions in 1995 and 1996 followed this sequence; a break-out flood was anticipated and a warning system was installed to mitigate the risk from this event and subsequent lahars in the same catchment. The 11-year filling time allowed much planning and rehearsal. The warning system involved manual inspections of dam integrity, and seepage and lake-level monitoring to constrain the likely failure window, and telemetered instruments including a tripwire and geophones to detect breaching of the dam and propagation of the outbreak flood. The dam-collapse sequence, captured by a time-lapse camera, involved a series of retrogressing landslides initiated and accelerated by seepage forces and toe scour when the lake was 1.1 m below overtopping. The barrier failed in two phases on 18th March, 2007, beginning at 09:55 (NZST), with rapid retreat of one of the erosion scarps on the downstream slope of the eastern barrier, initiated by internal erosion. Headward retrogression of the scarp into the barrier formed an initial breach in the dam, after which increasing outflow led to erosion and undercutting of the wider downstream toe of the western barrier. A final, larger dam breach occurred between 11:21 and 11:22 as slope instability caused retrogressive failure of the remaining barrier. Five-hundred meters downstream of the dam, a large landslide was reactivated by toe scour during the flood, contributing about a million cubic meters of solid material to the volumetric bulking of the outflow, which reached the coast, 215 km away, 17 h later. The success of the planning and warning system allowed the whole event to occur with little damage to infrastructure and without causing injury.     

西安金盆水库放水塔附近滑坡特征及成因分析

放水塔附近滑坡是金盆水库右岸原1号滑坡体下游边界段的残留体,受短期强降水因素的诱发导致坡体变形、失稳滑动。滑坡体具顺层牵引滑动特征,且平面上,不同区段变形破坏程度不同,其表现形式与坡体平面旋转有一定的相似性。坡体滑动主要受4组结构面的控制,其中的软弱片理结构面（产状1501703555）与产状为2302903555的另一组结构面构成滑坡的滑动控制面。基岩内发育的大量的软弱片理结构面,大气强降水,滑坡上部相对平缓的地貌及人类工程对地表植被环境的破坏,滑坡体下部喷护层的存在等因素的综合影响,导致了坡体的失稳滑动。     

Characteristics, mechanism and development tendency of deformation of Maoping landslide after commission of Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River, Hubei Province, China

Based on field investigation of the constituent structure and geological formation of the Maoping landslide, the authors made an in-depth study of the deformation characteristics and triggering mechanism of the reservoir-induced slide through comprehensive analysis of the about 13 years observation data. The Maoping landslide, the largest ancient landslide in Geheyan reservoir, with a volume of 23.5 million m³, is located on the left bank of the Qingjiang River, 66 km upstream of Geheyan dam. In April 1993 reservoir inundation reactivated the landslide, which resulted in relocation of a village of 290 people. Since then the landslide body has been experiencing persistent deformation with an observed maximum displacement of 2841.4 mm up to October 2005. Therefore, further development of deformation of the landslide becomes a great concern for the safety of the reservoir and dam. The analysis results show that the Maoping landslide is an ancient landslide that is an accumulation of several consequent slides along the bank slope and experienced several secondary slumps in its front in later stages. The ongoing deformation of the reactivated landslide is controlled by mechanical properties of materials and hydraulic effects induced by reservoir. The slip process is of creep deformation as a whole, and appears to be attenuating in later stage, which indicates very low possibility of the high-speed slip and integral failure of the slide.     

中国西南雅砻江流域唐古栋滑坡及雨日堆积体形成机理分析

唐古栋滑坡和雨日堆积体位于四川省雅江县境内的雅砻江流域,正在规划设计的雅砻江楞古水电站中坝址下游1.5km处,对大坝的安全构成潜在危险。本文以局部构造为线索,从雨日堆积特征分析入手,建立其与唐古栋滑坡在成因演化过程中的内在联系,通过对雨日堆积体的深入解剖,了解了唐古栋滑坡的形成过程,建立了该段河谷岸坡总体地质演化过程以及阶段性特征:唐古栋滑坡、雨日堆积体作为同一局部构造中的不同个体,其形成演化过程中存在必然的联系,代表不同演化阶段特征性产物。     

Breaching parameters of landslide dams

Landslide dams pose enormous risks to the public because of the potentially catastrophic floods generated by breaching of such dams. The need to better understand the threats of landslide dams raises questions about the proper estimation of breaching parameters (breach size, breaching duration, and peak outflow rate) of landslide dams and the feasibility of applying models for estimating the breaching parameters of man-made earthen dams to landslide dams. This paper aims to answer these two questions. In this study, a database of 1,239 landslide dams, including 257 cases formed during the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, has been compiled. Based on records of 52 landslide dam cases with breaching information in the database, empirical models for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams are developed. A comparison study between landslide dams and man-made earth and rockfill dams is conducted, which shows that the models for man-made earth and rockfill dams are not suitable for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams. Two case studies are presented to show the application of the set of empirical models developed in this paper.     

大型滑坡堆积体稳定性的三维数值分析

古水水电站争岗特大型滑坡堆积体方量高达4 750×104 m3,存在多处厚度超过50 m的超深层滑坡。稳定性直接关系到大坝的建设与运营。工程地质勘测、2008年降雨产生的变形资料表明,该滑坡体是一个多期次复合型滑坡,主要由基岩、滑带土和松散堆积物组成,地表已出现大量拉张和剪切裂缝,天然工况下整体处于沿贯通底滑面发生蠕滑变形的状态,各种工况下均存在滑塌的可能性,必须进行开挖加固治理。针对二维平面方法无法考虑计算断面的侧向约束和底滑面在空间上的曲率效应,运用三维极限平衡方法和大变形拉格朗日有限差分法,根据实际地质信息建立了多个三维计算模型,通过对治理前后滑坡体应力、变形、塑性区和安全系数变化对比分析,定性、定量对其稳定性进行了评价,并引入有限元点和面安全系数法对加固后稳定性进行了校核。结果真实反映了滑坡体的稳定性现状与规律,与现场勘查成果相吻合。开挖加固后,滑坡体局部和整体稳定性均有显著提高,结合排水措施,将更有利于保持其稳定性。研究成果可为类似工程问题提供有意义的参考。