陕西区域性气象干旱事件及变化特征

以陕西省为例,探讨了区域性气象干旱事件的识别和综合评估方法。采用陕西省96个国家级气象站1961-2013年逐日降水量和平均气温资料,计算了各站逐日综合气象干旱指数CI值,在此基础上定义了区域性气象干旱事件,并构建了以事件的极端强度、累积强度、累积面积、最大面积和持续时间5个指标的区域气象干旱事件综合评估模型,确定了区域气象干旱事件综合强度等级划分标准。历史干旱事件验证表明,采用的建模方法和评估等级划分合理。分析表明:陕西区域性气象干旱事件的持续时间以10~20 d为主,最长可达218 d。区域性干旱事件主要出现在春夏季。近53 a区域干旱事件频次呈弱的增加趋势,累积日数呈增多趋势,但年际差异大,阶段性特征显著。20世纪90年代持续性干旱事件频繁,强度强。干旱事件地域分布特征显示关中为陕西干旱事件发生的高频、高强中心区域。     

基于模糊隶属度的雷电危险度等级评定

利用2013—2017年青海省西宁市测站半径10 km的闪电定位监测数据，选取地域范围一小时内的地闪数目和一小时内的最大雷电流幅值作为雷电危险度因子。确定因子分级的上下限和因子区间划分，计算出单因子雷电危险度等级的隶属度与权重。采用梯形分布函数和模糊统计方法确定雷电危险度因子的隶属度函数，根据隶属度函数得出模糊矩阵，并进行模糊矩阵复合运算，求出雷电危险度综合指数，得出雷电危险度等级。结果表明：根据建立的模糊综合评判方法能够全面、客观、准确地反映一次闪电过程的危险度状况，有效评定雷电危险度等级，评定结果较为客观地反映了雷击事件的实际状况，从而为气象防灾减灾、雷电灾害调查和雷击风险评估等业务提供科学性的决策服务和参考依据。     

中国不同气候区基于火险气象指数的火险概率模型

目前,森林火险气象指数被广泛用于世界多个国家和地区.本研究目的为,基于火险气象指数,在中国不同气候区建立火险概率模型.本文在中国4个气候区,使用1998-2007年的气象及火灾数据,以位置变量、月份、海拔、加拿大、美国及澳大利亚的气象火险指数、植被指数为自变量,建立了半参数化Logistic回归模型,分析各自变量与着火概率及大火发生概率之间的非线性关系.在不同区域,模型所选自变量组合不同,这与各气候区不同气象及植被状况有关.通过模型模拟数据和实际观测数据散点图、火险概率图、大面积火灾数量预报曲线图,分析了模型的预测能力.研究结果表明,在4个气候区,海拔和NDVI指数对着火概率影响显著.模拟可燃物含水量的气象火险指数由于反映出了植被的季节变化特征,在中国北部成为火险概率模型中的重要因子.模拟土壤有机层可燃物状况的火险气象指数在中国南部(东南、西南)成为火险概率模型的重要因子.在中国4个气候区,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,可以有效模拟月时间尺度着火概率及大火发生概率,并为分析火险气象指数的预报能力提供了有效途径.本研究为进一步分析气候与火险之间的动态关系提供了理论基础.     

热带气旋灾情的预测及评估

针对1990～1996年登陆广东省的21个热带气旋所造成的灾情,采用模糊数学原理和方法,选取不同的因子组合,计算出登陆热带气旋的综合灾情指数,并在此基础上客观地划分5个灾情等级,用来表示受灾的程度.结果表明,灾前预测及灾害评估模型都具有较高的拟合率,能较好地评价和预测登陆热带气旋可能造成的经济损失程度.     

气象自动站资料在黔南森林火险等级监测预报中的应用

对大量国家级和区域级气象自动站资料的获取和订正,通过对降水、气温、湿度和风速等气象因子对森林火险贡献度数学模型的计算,充分应用在黔南森林火险气象等级的实时监测和预报中。通过多点、多时段的预报值、实时监测值与实况对比检验统计,得出应用系统的实时监测准确率和预报准确率。     

中国北方近50年干旱变化特征

根据1950～2000年我国629个站逐月降水资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,根据计算出的Z指数把各地的旱涝情况划分成7个等级,并在此基础上计算了干旱发生的范围.通过研究干旱范围变化趋势和特征,进而诊断干旱发生严重程度的变化.通过对近半个多世纪来的资料进行分析,发现我国北方主要农业区不同程度的干旱面积均有扩大趋势,在不同季节以及北方区内的其它区域干旱的发生发展还有不同的特征.     

居住小区容积率空间差异——以大连市为例

以土地利用中居住小区及房屋调查数据为基础、居住小区为基本研究单元,通过GIS技术和泰尔指数模型,对大连市居住小区容积率空间差异进行实证研究。先应用GIS技术对居住小区容积率进行计算,其次将居住小区容积率划分为7个等级并对居住小区进行容积率分级,应用GIS软件生成空间分布图和等值线图,然后应用泰尔指数计算居住小区容积率空间差异测度指数,最后分析其形成原因。结果表明:1大连市居住小区容积率呈不同等级整体破碎、相同等级小范围集聚、邻近等级穿插结合的空间分布特征。2大连市居住小区容积率整体分异测度指数不高,极低和极高容积率等级的居住小区差异测度最大;全市四大区域中,中山区差异测度最大,甘井子区差异测度最小,四大区域的内部差异测度远远大于各区域之间的差异测度,是大连市居住小区容积率空间差异的显著特点。3居住小区容积率空间差异的主要原因是城市不同区位和房屋属性所形成的住宅类型指向、城市空间地貌对居住小区建设的制约、城市居住用地规划标准的宏观导向、城市地价对容积率的作用。     

基于综合气象干旱指数的海河流域干旱特征分析

基于海河流域30个气象站点1960-2014年的气象数据,计算各站历年逐日的综合气象干旱指数(CI)值,并对等级划分标准进行修正,统计了近55 a各站点出现的干旱过程,对海河流域干旱的持续时间、强度、发生频率和覆盖面积百分率进行了分析,揭示了海河流域干旱的变化特征。结果表明:(1)近55 a海河流域干旱严重程度趋于上升且发生范围广泛。该流域干旱持续时间和干旱强度均呈增加的趋势。海河流域的干旱在四季均有发生,其中冬旱最为严重,夏旱严重程度较低。(2)海河流域干旱程度呈现出高频低强度、低频高强度的空间分布特征。干旱持续时间和干旱强度在空间上均表现为南高北低的分布规律,而年干旱发生频率呈现出北高南低的分布规律。     

近50年安徽省气候年景评估方法

利用安徽省1961～2010年气象观测资料和气象灾情资料,依据极端气候事件及主要气象灾害评估技术规范和相关标准,挑选主要气候事件及气象灾害评估指标。应用主成分分析方法确定各指标权重,通过综合加权分别构建年干旱、雨涝、低温冷冻害、高温、风雹及雾霾等气候异常指数评估模型和灾损模型。在此基础上,利用灰色关联方法构建气候年景模型,反演近50a安徽省年景指数序列,参照世界气象组织推荐的百分位数法划分气候年景等级阈值,分别取0～10%,10%～30%,30%～70%,70%～90%,90%～100%为好、较好、一般、较差和差气候年景。近50a来,1965年、1973年、1975年、1993年和1997年为好气候年景;1966年、1969年、1991年、1996年和1998年气候年景差。通过综合灾损模型以及相关气象灾害文献资料验证表明,气候年景评估方法和等级标准可以较好地反映年度气候的真实状况,可为省、市、县级区域的气候年景评估提供科技支撑。     

基于断裂点理论与加权Voronoi图的京津冀地区城市影响范围研究

城市影响范围的界定是研究城市与周围城市、区域之间相互作用的一个重要内容,对城市和区域的规划有着重要意义。该文选取20项能反映城市影响范围的相关指标,通过主成分分析及数据变换,确定了京津冀三地14个地市的中心性强度。有效结合断裂点理论与加权Voronoi图方法,界定并生成了该地区各地市的影响范围。改进现有的确定区域中心城市和划分城市经济影响区的方法,在分析基于断裂点理论的加权Voronoi图网格包含与邻接关系的基础上,将京津冀地区划分为3个城市群,确定了3个1级中心城市、2个2级中心城市。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Development and Environment in Peninsular Malaysia . S. Robert Aiken, Colin H. Leigh, Thomas R. Leinbach, Michael R. Moss. The Rural-Urban Fringe: Canadian Perspectives . Ken B. Beesley and Lorne H. Russwurm, eds. Women and Development . Lourdes Benería, ed. The Border that Joins: Mexican Migrants and U.S. Responsibility . Peter G. Brown and Henry Shue, eds. Cities of the World: World Regional Urban Development . Stanley D. Brunn and Jack L. Williams, eds. Time Resources, Society, and Ecology: On the Capacity for Human Interaction in Space and Time (Vol. I, Preindustrial Societies). Tommy Carlstein. Urban Geography . David Clark. Spanish City Planning in North America . Dora P. Crouch, Daniel J. Garr, and Axel I. Mundigo. Not On Our Street: Community Attitudes to Mental Health Care . M. J. Dear and S. M. Taylor Unequal growth: Urban and Regional Employment Change in the U.K. Stephen Fothergill and Graham Gudgin. Agricultural Land in an Urban Society . Owen J. Furuseth and John T. Pierce. The Petroleum Industry in Oil-Importing Developing Countries . Fariborz Ghadar. Historical Understanding in Geography, An Idealist Approach . Leonard Guelke. Regional Planning in Europe . R. Hudson and J. R. Lewis, eds. Remote Sensing for Resource Management . Chris J. Johannsen and James L. Sanders, eds. Geography and The State . R. J. Johnston. Texas Graveyards: a Cultural Legacy . Tlrry G. Jordan. The Politics of Location: An Introduction . Andrew Kirby. A Social Geography of the City . David Ley. Energy and the Future . Douglas MacLean and Peter Brown, eds. The Natural Environment of Newfoundland Past and Present . A. G. Macpherson and J. B. Macpherson, eds. Tourism: Economic, Physical and Social Impacts . Alister Mathieson and Geoffrey Wall. Railroads and Land Grant Policy: A Study in Government Intervention . Lloyd J. Mercer. Progress in Rural Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Urban Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Models of Spatial Inequality: Settlement Patterns in Historical Archaeology . Robert Paynter. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy, Anticipating the Unexpected . William J. Petak and Arthur A. Atkisson. The Nature of Geomorphology . Alistair F. Pitty. Regional Conflict and National Policy . Kent A. Price Women and Spatial Change: Learning Resources for Social Science Courses . Arlene C. Rengert and Janice J. Monk, eds. Urban and Regional Analysis for Development Planning . Richard Rhoda. Rivers: Form and Process in Alluvial Channels . Keith Richards. This Remarkable Continent: An Atlas of United States and Canadian Society and Culture . John F. Rooney, Jr., Wilbur Zelinsky, and Dean R. Louder, gen. eds. The Origins of Open-Field Agriculture . Trevor Rowley, ed. Residential Location Determinants of the Older Population . Gundars Rudzitis. Borderland Sourcebook: A Guide to the Literature on Northern Mexico and the American Southwest . Ellwyn R. Stoddard, Richard L. Nostrand, and Jonathan P. West, eds. Arctic and Antarctic . David Sugden. Tall Timbers Ecology and Management Conference, February 22–24, 1979, Proceedings No. 16 . Graphic Communication and Design in Contemporary Cartography (Progress in Contemporary Cartography , Vol. II). D. R. Fraser Taylor, ed. Living with Energy Shortfall: A Future for American Towns and Cities . Jon Van Til. The United States: Habitation of Hope . J. Wreford Watson. Air Photo Interpretation for Archaeologists . D. R. Wilson. Urban and Rural Change in West Germany . Trevor Wild, ed. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Rabat: Urban Apartheid in Morocco . Janet Abu -Lughod . Marketplaces in a Developing Country: The Case of Western Nigeria . Isaac Ayinde Adalemo . Farming Development and Space: A World Agricultural Geography . Bernd Andreae . Section and Party: A Political Geography of American Presidential Elections, from Andrew Jackson to Ronald Reagan . J. Clark Archer and Peter J. Taylor . Women and Space: Ground Rules and Social Maps . Shirley Ardener , ed. European Progress in Spatial Analysis . R. J. Bennett , ed. The Origins of Academic Geography in the United States . Brian W. Blouet Geographic Perspectives on Global Problems . Ronald Reed Boyce . Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty . Robert Chambers , Richard Longhurst and Arnold Pacey eds. The New Nationalism and the Use of Common Spaces: Issues in Marine Pollution and the Exploitation of Antarctica . Jonathan I. Charney , ed. Communications Tomorrow: The Coming of the Information Society . Edward Cornish , ed. The Design of Suburbia . Arthur Edwards . Explorer on the Northern Plains: Lieutenant Gouverneur K. Warren's Preliminary Report of Explorations in Nebraska and Dakota in the Years 1855–56–57. With an Introduction by Frank N. Schubert . The Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna . Michael J. Ford . Essentials of Physical Geography . Robert E. Gabler , Robert J. Sager , Sheila Brazier , and Daniel L. Wise. The Road to Jaramillo . William Glen . Valued Environments . John R. Gold and Jacquelin Burgess , eds. Proximity and Preference: Problems in the Multidimensional Analysis of Large Data Sets . Reginald G. Golledge and John N. Rayner , eds. A Search for Common Ground . Peter Gould and Gunnar Olsson , eds. Geography: Its History and Concepts . Arild Holt -Jensen . A Population Geography . Huw R. Jones . The Human Mosaic: A Thematic Introduction to Cultural Geography, 3rd ed. Terry G. Jordan and Lester Rowntree . Urban Social Geography: An Introduction . Paul Knox . The Anatomy of Job Loss: The How, Why and Where of Employment Decline . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan . The Information Society as Post-Industial Society . Yoneji Masuda . Map Librarianship, 2nd ed. Harold Nichols . India: Cultural Patterns and Processes . Allen G. Noble and Ashok K. Dutt , eds. The God that Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties . Colin Norman . Geography: An Introductory Perspective . Robert E. Norris , Keith D. Harries and John D. Vitek . The Politics of Technology Assessment . David M. O'Brien and Donald A. Marchand . Ethnic Segregation in Cities . Ceri Peach , Vaughan Robinson and Susan Smith , eds. Churches and Church Membership in the United States, 1980 . Bernard Quinn , Herman Anderson , Martin Bradley , Paul Goetting and Peggy Shriver . Energy in Australia: Politics and Economics . Hugh Saddler . Development from Above or Below? The Dialectics of Regional Planning in Developing Countries . Walter B. Stóuhr and D. R. Fraser Taylor , eds. Human Impact on the Ecosystem . Joy Tivy and Greg O'Hare . Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America . Thomas R. Vale . The Mapmakers: The Story of the Great Pioneers in Cartography from Antiquity to the Space Age . John Noble Wilford .     

Deserts and Aeolian Desertification in China: Book review and some thoughts

Desertification is a global phenomenon that affects about two billion people. It occurs in arid zones where the annual precipitation is below 400 mm, partic- ularly in the marginal areas of the world＇s largest deserts. It is a result of water and wind erosion, over- grazing, global warm-ing, improper soil cultivation, and increased pressure ot population growth, and it causes degradation of soil and natural and agricultural vegetation. The direct result is less food for people and livestock, which influences pop- ulation and animal husbandry fluctuations. Despite ef- forts to combat and reduce desertification, the affected areas are annually increasing.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The Rice Economy of Asia . Randolph Barker and Robert W. Herdt with Beth Rose. Using Microcomputers: A Guidebook for Writers, Teachers, and Researchers in the Social Sciences . Blaine A. Erie—the Lake that Survived . Noel M. Burns. Geology and Society . Donald R. Coates. Caves and Karst of Kentucky . Percy H. Dougherty, ed. Altered Harvest: Agriculture, Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply . Jack Doyle. The Middle East and North Africa, A Political Geography . Alasdair Drysdale and Gerald H. Blake. Clamor at the Gates. The New American Immigration . Nathan Glazer, ed. Development and the Landowner: An analysis of the British experience . Robin Goodchild and Richard Munton. Discovering Landscape in England and Wales . Andrew Goudie and Rita Gardner. The Modern Plantation in the Third World . Edgar Graham and Ingrid Floering. Social Relations and Spatial Structures . Derek Gregory and John Urry, eds. The World Food Problem 1950–1980 . David Grigg. Costa Rica: A Geographical Interpretation in Historical Perspective . Carolyn Hall. The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey Consciousness and the Urban Experience: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey. Reviving Main Street . Deryck Holdsworth, ed. Rural Roads and Poverty Alleviation . John Howe and Peter Richards, eds. Uneven Development in Southern Europe: Studies of Accumulation, Class, Migration and the State . Ray Hudson and Jim Lewis, eds. Karst Geomorphology . J. N. Jennings. The Geomorphology of North-west England . R. H. Johnson, ed. Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society . Robert Kates, Jesse Ausubel, Mimi Berberian, eds. Public Service Provision and Urban Development . Andrew Kirby, Paul Knox, and Steven Pinch, ed. State and Market: The Politics of the Public and the Private . Jan-Erik Lane, ed. Living Cities . Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Urban Preservation Policies. World Climatic Systems . John G. Lockwood. Urban Ethnicity in the United States. New Immigrants and Old Minorities . Lionel Maldonaldo and Joan Moore, eds. Culture and Conservation: The Human Dimension in Environmental Planning . Jeffrey A. McNeely and David Pitt, eds. The Andean Past. Land, Societies, and Conflicts . Magnus Mörner. Gaia: An Atlas of Planet Management . Norman Myers, ed. Progress in Industrial Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Political Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Rivers and Landscape . Geoff Petts and Ian Foster. Urbanization and Planning in the 3rd World: Spatial Perceptions and Public Participation . Robert B. Potter. One Island, Two Nations? A Political Geographical Analysis of the National Conflict in Ireland . D. G. Pringle. Circulation in Third World Countries . R. Mansell Prothero and Murray Chapman. The Ozarks Outdoors: A Guide for Fishermen, Hunters, and Tourists . Milton D. Rafferty. Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything . George Rengert and John Wasilchick. Geomorphology and Soils . K.S. Richards, R.R. Arnett, and S. Ellis, eds. The Homes and Homeless of Post-War Britain . Frederick Shaw. Indochinese Refugees in America . Paul J. Strand and Woodrow Jones, Jr. Wild Horses and Sacred Cows . Richard Symanski. Forever Wild: Environmental Aesthetics and the Adirondack Forest Preserve . Philip G. Terrie. The Regional Economic Impact of Technological Change . A.T. Thwaites and R.P. Oakey, eds. The Good Life . Yi-Fu Tuan.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Guidelines to Authors

1. Aims and scope
Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions （SCAR） is a bimonthly journal that publishes in English the latest research achievements in processes and the pattems of the Earth surface system in cold and arid regions. Researches in cold regions emphasize particularly on the cold-region-characterized physical,