近50年安徽省气候年景评估方法

利用安徽省1961～2010年气象观测资料和气象灾情资料,依据极端气候事件及主要气象灾害评估技术规范和相关标准,挑选主要气候事件及气象灾害评估指标。应用主成分分析方法确定各指标权重,通过综合加权分别构建年干旱、雨涝、低温冷冻害、高温、风雹及雾霾等气候异常指数评估模型和灾损模型。在此基础上,利用灰色关联方法构建气候年景模型,反演近50a安徽省年景指数序列,参照世界气象组织推荐的百分位数法划分气候年景等级阈值,分别取0～10%,10%～30%,30%～70%,70%～90%,90%～100%为好、较好、一般、较差和差气候年景。近50a来,1965年、1973年、1975年、1993年和1997年为好气候年景;1966年、1969年、1991年、1996年和1998年气候年景差。通过综合灾损模型以及相关气象灾害文献资料验证表明,气候年景评估方法和等级标准可以较好地反映年度气候的真实状况,可为省、市、县级区域的气候年景评估提供科技支撑。

Study on the method of annual climatic assessment of Anhui Province in the past 50 years

The meteorological data and meteorological disaster information in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2010 were used to select the evaluating indicators of climatic event and disaster according to the extreme weather events,technical regulation and relative standard for meteorological disaster assessment.The weight of each indicator was built by principal component analysis.The anomaly assessment models of climatic event and disaster damage,including drought,flood,low-temperature freezing disasters,high temperature,wind-hailstone and fog,were built by using the weighted integration method.On this basis,the annual climatic assessment model was established with grey relational analysis,and index series for annual climatic assessment of Anhui in recent 50 years were worked out.By reference to the percentile method recommended by World Meteorological Organization(WMO),we tried to determine the threshold values,and established standards for annual climatic assessment grade,taking 0-10%,10%-30%,30%-70%,70%-90% and 90%-100% as good,fair,not good,bad and harsh climate condition,respectively.The results of annual climatic assessment for the recent 50 years showed that the climate situation in 1965,1973,1975,1993,and 1997 was good,while that in 1966,1969,1991,1996 and 1998 was bad.Among them,assessment result of 1991 was the worst.Through verification with historical meteorological disaster information and integrated disaster damage model,the method and standard of annual climatic assessment could reflect the true climate condition.The studies provide technological support for annual climatic assessment for the province,city and county units,which can be used for researching the effects of climate and climate change on the sensitive affairs by constructing evaluating indicators and annual climatic assessment model,as well as making annual climatic assessment grade according to the threshold values.