发展高效农业就必须重视发展气象事业——访曲沃县副县长王真

发展高效农业就必须重视发展气象事业访曲沃县副县长王真王安民（山西省临汾地区气象局０４１０００）在近年来十分重视支持发展气象事业，先后投资２０多万元率先在山西省首家建成气象科技服务网和天气自动答询台的曲沃县，１９９５年春又投入１４万元资金购置了人工增雨...     

浅谈农业气象工作与持续农业的结合

简要介绍了持续农业的概念和我国农业可持续发展战略的主导思想。结合当地农业发展的的实际探讨了农业气象工作与持续农业的结合点     

气候变化与云南农业气象灾害分析

气象灾害是制约云南农业发展的主要自然灾害,作者重点分析了旱涝,低温等几种主要灾害性天气对农业的危害及其基本特征规律。同时提出,正确认识气象灾害,研究其在农业生产生态系统中的地位是十分重要的。     

气象与农业产业化发展思路的探索

改革开放２０多年来，我省的农业气象科技有了长足的发展，为农业和农村经济持续稳定发展注入了新的活力，取得了显著的社会经济效益，气象工作功不可没。但随着改革的不断深入，我省农业气象发展的同时，也面临着许多亟待解决的问题：农业气象对农业和农村经济发展的促进作用尚未得到充分发挥；专业结构布局不够合理；大多数县站单靠农民责任田取样；气象科技投入渠道单一；科技成果转化力度不够，自主创新不足，仍阻碍着气象科技与农业产业化发展的有机结合；广大气象科技人员的积极性尚未得到充分调动和发挥。跨入２１世纪，我国“入世”…     

日本的现代农业气象科研及其农业气象实用技术的推广应用

农业气象开发及其实用技术的应用是推动日本农业发展的重要动力,以气候适应性为前提,有选择地在气候适宜区建立具有适度规模的基地,是日本现代农业具有规律性的一个基本特点,日本并根据自身气候条件的特点,袄圾所为、有所不为的农业发展战略,应有针对性地借鉴日本发展农业气象科研及其相关实用技术的经济教训,积极慎重地把四川盆地的设施园艺搞上去。     

襄樊地区主要农业气象灾害及其防御对策

本文从分析近29年来襄樊市气候变化入手,分析了气候变化带来的主要农业气象灾害,并提出了相应的防御对策。可供有关部门参考。     

对我省农业气象工作发展的几点建议

随着市场经济体制的不断完善和高产优质高效农业的快速发展,湖北省农业气象事业发展已逐步进入“快车道”,其前景可观。正视现状,把握机遇,面向农业,寻找对策,应成为推进农业气象事业持续健康发展的基本思路。     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Role of the 10–20-Day Oscillation in Sustained Rainstorms over Hainan,China in October 2010

Hainan, an island province of China in the northern South China Sea, experienced two sustained rainstorms in October2010, which were the most severe autumn rainstorms of the past 60 years. From August to October 2010, the most dominant signal of Hainan rainfall was the 10–20-day oscillation. This paper examines the roles of the 10–20-day oscillation in the convective activity and atmospheric circulation during the rainstorms of October 2010 over Hainan. During both rainstorms,Hainan was near the center of convective activity and under the influence of a lower-troposphere cyclonic circulation. The convective center was initiated in the west-central tropical Indian Ocean several days prior to the rainstorm in Hainan. The convective center first propagated eastward to the maritime continent, accompanied by the cyclonic circulation, and then moved northward to the northern South China Sea and South China, causing the rainstorms over Hainan. In addition, the westward propagation of convection from the tropical western Pacific to the southern South China Sea, as well as the propagation farther northward, intensified the convective activity over the northern South China Sea and South China during the first rainstorm.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征

利用1960-2012年汉江流域15个气象站点的日降雨资料和3个水文站同时期日径流资料,分析了9个极端降雨指数的空间分布规律,运用广义极值分布（GEV）、Gamma分布两种极值统计模型对各站点的最大1 d降雨、最大3 d降雨极值样本进行拟合,遴选描述降雨极值分布规律最优概率模型,进而推算给定重现期下的降雨设计值,并分析其空间分布规律;选用Gumbel、Clayton和Frank这3种Copula函数建立降雨-洪量极值联合分布模型,优选最合适的Copula函数,由此计算给定重现期下的洪量设计值。结果表明：GEV分布模型能更好地模拟降雨极值序列,不同重现期下的降雨极值在空间上均呈西低东高的特征;3种Copula函数中,Frank Copula函数能更好地拟合降雨-洪量相关关系,由此推求的洪量设计值大于单变量拟合设计值。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

宁波地区海-陆下垫面差异对雷暴过程影响的数值模拟

利用耦合Noah陆面过程的WRF模式对2009年6月5日傍晚发生在宁波地区的一次雷暴过程进行数值模拟,通过改变下垫面覆盖类型的敏感性试验,探讨了海洋和陆地下垫面对雷暴过程的影响。结果表明,WRF模式能够较合理地模拟出雷暴的发生、发展过程。雷暴发生前期,由于海-陆强烈的热力差异,海风特征明显,海风引起的抬升运动触发了雷暴,海风形成的强辐合区对应雷暴过程累积降水量的大值区。当研究区域全部被替换成陆地后,地表的粗糙度增大,在研究区域东部由于摩擦辐合加强,产生了强烈的上升运动,多个发展旺盛的对流单体在上升运动区生成,使雷暴产生的降水区域东扩、降水量增大、雷暴维持时间延长。当研究区域所有陆地被替换成水体后,白天地表通量减小,大气边界层中湍流运动减弱,边界层高度降低,大气层结变得稳定,不利于对流发展。     

Model simulations of rainout and washout from a warm stratiform cloud

A one-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model with parameterized microphysics is used to investigate the processes which control the rainout and washout of soluble gases from warm, precipitating stratiform clouds. Calculations are presented simulating the distributions of soluble species within and below the cloud layer and in the precipitating raindrops as a function of time and species' solubility. Our calculations indicate that for species with low solubility, wet removal processes are relatively slow and thus do not significantly affect the species' gas-phase abundance. As a result, the removal of low-solubility species by rainout and washout is controlled by thermodynamic processes with the concentration of the species in cloud and rainwater largely determined by the species' solubility. For highly soluble species on the other hand, dissolution into cloud droplets and removal in rain is quite rapid and the abundance of highly soluble species within and below the cloud falls rapidly as soon as the precipitation begins. Because of this rapid decrease in concentration, we find that for highly soluble species: concentrations in cloud droplets near the cloud base can exceed that of raindrops by factors of 2 to 10; washout can dominate over rainout as a removal mechanism; and that, after an extended period of rainfall, the rate of removal becomes independent of the microphysical properties and rainfall rate of the cloud and is controlled by the rate of transport of material into the precipitating column by horizontal advection.     

Field Experimental Investigations on the Fe(II)- and Fe(III)-Content in Cloudwater Samples

The Fe(II)/Fe(III)-partition in cloudwater samples collected during two field campaigns is evaluated. It turned out that the simultaneous occurrence of complexing and reducing substances in the atmosphere and the cloud processing increase the solubility of iron compounds present in aerosol particles. A correlation between the concentration of iron(II) in the liquid phase and the intensity of the solar irradiation was observed for most of the cloudwater samples. This could be due to the fact that both the photochemical reduction of the iron(III) complexes and the photochemical reductive dissolution of iron(III)(hydr)oxides are depending on the pH-value. Iron(II) seems to be oxidised back to iron(III) preferably by hydrogen peroxide during the night. Positive correlations were received e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the concentration of oxalate and between the percentage of iron(III) and the concentration of hydrogen peroxide. A negative correlation was found e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the pH-value. The uncertainty of the whole process of sampling and analysis was investigated and the conformity of the results was satisfying considering the sometimes difficult conditions during a field campaign.