基于受灾者关键期自救的应急救援物资结构研究——以地震灾害为例

物资是救援的基本条件,从受灾者关键期自救角度研究应急救援物资结构对受灾者充分利用灾后救助黄金期展开自救工作,降低人员伤亡具有重要意义。应急救援物资基本类型相对固定,基于国家应急物资分类标准通过调查研究得出了各类物资的紧要程度排序并得到了地震灾害应急救援物资分类结构。应急物资数量结构具有变动性,区分自救者的双重身份,采用范例推理和BP神经网络方法分别从救援者和受灾者角度对应急救援物资数量结构进行分析研究,理论上可以获得更为准确的应急物资数量结构预测结果。

Structure of Emergency Relief Supplies in Critical Period for the Victims' Self-help

It is meaningful for the victims carrying out self-help work and reduce casualties in critical period of disaster. The basic types of emergency relief supplies are relatively fixed, based on the emergency relief supplies classification standard of China. The quantity structure of emergency relief supplies usually changes, therefore, it is necessary to distinguish the self rescuer''s dual identities and to study the quantity structure of emergency relief supplies by means of case-based reasoning and BP neural network from the different perspectives of the self- rescuer and victim. More accurate forecasting result could be obtained in theory.