城镇化水平与制造业空间分布——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

基于2001~2011 年中国省区面板数据,聚焦于城镇化水平与中国制造业空间分布。研究表明,城镇化水平是中国制造业空间分布的重要影响因素之一,两者之间存在倒"U"型关系,以中国各省区制造业产值占全国制造业总产值的份额反映中国制造业的空间分布,当城镇化水平超过36.26%后,城镇化水平的进一步提高不再推动制造业份额上升,反而会导致其下降。进一步研究发现,劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型3 种类型制造业在空间分布、份额变化和与城镇化水平的相关性上均存在一定程度的差异性,并印证了制造业内部存在由劳动密集型、资本密集型向技术密集型转型升级的基本规律。此外,交通设施水平、区位条件等因素也会对中国制造业空间分布产生影响。

Urbanization Level and Spatial Distribution of Manufacturing Industry:An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

With the acceleration of China's urbanization process, the improvement of urbanization level effects on various aspects of China's economy and society. This article focuses on urbanization level and spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry. Based on statistical data of 2001-2011 and panel regression, it finds that the level of urbanization is an important factor affecting the spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry, and they have an inversed U-shaped relationship. Using the share of the provinces and autonomous regions' manufacturing output accounting for the country's total manufacturing output to reflect the spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry, it shows that when the level of urbanization is lower than 36.26%, the share of the manufacturing sector is getting larger along with the improvement of urbanization level. While when it is over 36.26%, the improvement of urbanization level will no longer push up the share of the manufacturing sector, but lead to its decline. Furthermore, labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing have certain differences in the spatial distribution, the degree of change and share, and the correlation between urbanization level and spatial distribution of manufacturing industry. The inflection points for labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing are 26.91% and 29.16%, both lower than 48.54%, the inflection points for technology-intensive manufacturing. And it confirms the basic rule that labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industry transform and upgrade to technology-intensive manufacturing industry. In addition, labor wage is positively related to the spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry. And transportation infrastructure level and location also have an impact on the spatial distribution of China's manufacturing industry.