CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究

建立机理和空间明确的城市模拟模型，对刻画我国城市未来情景、推演城市增长的环境影响、解释城市增长复杂性具有重要意义。现有的城市模拟模型偏重于对单个城市或城市区域进行模拟，大多缺乏可靠的经济学基础。通过有效集成CGE模型、GIS空间分析和格网动力学模型，采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型将分散的城市模拟模型连接成为相互作用的“城市模型体系”，提出一个经济机理和地理参考明确的、多维度、多尺度、可运行的中国城市未来模拟模型框架，阐述其假设、逻辑、主要内容与关键技术。

China Urban Future Simulation: An Integrated Framework of CGE and GIS

Urban system is a kind of complex spatial systems.Developing spatially explicit urban simulation models is a very important approach to mapping urban future,analyzing environmental impacts of urban growth and explaining urban complexities in China.However,the existing urban simulation models,for example,system dynamics based models,cellar automation based models and multi-agent based models,are not enough to explain and analyze the complexities of urban system in China for their lack of reliable economic theories and their limit in only one urban area or metropolitan area.This paper tries to integrate multi-regional computable general equilibrium models(MRCGE),geographical information system and geographical cellar dynamics into a framework,in which MRCGE is used to link many urban models into an interdependent urban model system.The authors develop a sort of hypotheses,approaches,components and core techniques for this framework,which is considered to be spatially explicit,economically clear,multi-dimension,multi-scale,accountable and operational in promoting scenario analyses and explaining urban complexities in China.