Validation of general circulation climate models and projectionsof temperature and rainfall changes in Cameroon and someof its neighbouring areas |
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Authors: | F Mkankam Kamga |
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Institution: | (1) Atmospheric Sciences Lab., Department of Physics, University of Yaoundé I, Yaoundé, Cameroon, CM |
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Abstract: | Summary Four coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models were examined for the ability of their control runs to simulate
present climate given present forcings. The area of study is mainly Cameroon and some of its surrounding areas (0–25° E, 5° S-30° N).
These models are from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (HadCM2), the German Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
(ECHAM4), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM1) and the Australian Commonwealth Science and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO-Mk2). The ability of the models to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal patterns was studied.
ECHAM4 and HadCM2 were found to reproduce the spatial pattern well, with a correlation of more than 90%. They also simulated
the main annual features of both temperature and rainfall. The CSIRO-Mk2 model was slightly less successful and the CGCM1
had the worst results for the area, especially as concern rainfall. In view of these results, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 were used
to evaluate projected changes in rainfall and temperature resulting from increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere for the 30 year period 2040 to 2070.
Received February 15, 1999/Revised March 10, 2000 |
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