区域气候模式对中国夏季降水的10年回报试验及其评估分析

该文使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式(RegCM_NCC)对1991～2000年中国夏季降水进行了数值回报试验.从模式回报的降水10年平均状况来看,模式基本上能够反映这10年夏季的平均状况.用国家气候中心预报评分P、技巧评分SS、距平相关系数(ACC)和异常气候评分TS 4种评估参数对模式的回报试验进行了总体评估分析,结果表明该模式对我国汛期降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力,对部分地区(西部,东北,长江下游等)有较强的预报能力.从相关系数来看,预报准确率较高(即相关系数较高)的地区是中国东北地区的北部(内蒙古的北部和黑龙江的西北部),内蒙古-河套-长江中游地区,新疆的西北部,西藏的东部和四川的西部,江南部分地区,广西部分地区.这些地区的中心一般均超过0.90的信度检验.160个站中相关系数高于0.20的有54个,约占33.73%.

10-YEAR HINDCASTS AND ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER CHINA FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

year hindcast experiments (1991-2000) of summer rainfall over China are presented by using regional climate model (RegCM-NCC) that is nested in a global atmosphere - ocean coupled model. The RegCM-NCC can reproduce the averaged pattern of precipitation during the 10-year summer. From the whole analysis of the forecast score (P), skill score (SS), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and anomalous climate score (TS) of 10-year hindcast, the RegCM-NCC has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal rain belts, especially in western China, Northeast China and the lower level of the Yangtze River valley. The best hindcasted regions with high ACC are located in the northern part of Northeast China, area from Inner-Mongolia via Big Bang of the Yellow River to the middle reach of the Yangtze River,the northwestern part of Xingjiang, the eastern part of Xizang,the western part of Shichuan province,the part of the southern of the Yangtze and the part of Guangxi. The maximum values of ACC in those areas generally exceed 90% confidence level. Among 160 stations, there are 33.73% (54 stations) where the values of ACC exceed 0.20.