渤、黄海海冰的变化和预报结果分析

利用1951—2000年的渤、黄海的海冰资料，用小波分析和最优气候均态法对渤、黄海的海冰冰级进行分析和预测。小波分析结果较好地反映了渤、黄海海冰的变化规律，使对海冰的研究更符合实际情况。这必将有助于研究海冰变化的机理和不同尺度变化的相互作用。最优气候均态法较好地实现了对渤、黄海海冰的预测。此方法在海冰预报中不失为一种可用的方法。

Variations and Predicted Result Analysis of Sea Ice in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea

Based on the observed sea ice data in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea during 1951 to 2000, the wavelet analysis and optimal climate normal method were used to analyse and predict the sea ice scale in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The wavelet analysis results well reflect the sea ice variabilities in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, make the sea ice study more consistent with the ice conditions and will help study the variational mechanism of sea ice and the interaction betweem different scale variations. The sea ice scale in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea can be predicted by using the optimal climate normal method, so this method is an applicable sea ice prediction method.