物理初值化在台风数值天气预报中的应用试验

根据P.R.Julian(1984)的物理初值化方法，利用有限区数值预报模式，针对台风系统的预报做了物理初值化试验。结果表明，物理初值化不但可以改善台风、低压和副高区域的初始流场形势以及初始降水率，而且可以改善台风强度的发展变化过程和路径的预报，是一种有效可行的方法。

The Application of Physical Initialization to the Numerical Prediction for Typhoons

Several experiments of the physical initialization in the numerical prediction of ty-phoons,by using P.R.Julian's scheme(1984) with the operational tropical limited areaoperational NWP model,are conducted.The results show that not only the initial state(stream and rainfall rate) in the areas of the typhoon,the monsoon depression or thesubtropic high,but also the predictions of the strength and the track of the typhoon canbe largely improved by the use of physical initialization,which proved to be a effectiveand feasible method in the tropical NWPs.