Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century |
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Authors: | FU Yuanhai and LU Riyu |
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Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century |
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Abstract: | This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of
South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO--monsoon relationships in the
21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of
twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models.
The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual
variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation (SD)
was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was
found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of
monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed
increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under
scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in
the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios
A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur
over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ``the
strong get stronger'. Another finding was that ENSO--monsoon relationships
are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component
of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under
global warming, although the ENSO--summer rainfall relationship cannot be
reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian
summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically. |
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Keywords: | climate change interannual variability South Asian summer monsoon ENSO--monsoon relationship |
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