过去2000年中国气候变化研究

总结了中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所在过去2000年中国气候变化研究方面的主要进展,并对未来研究动向进行了展望。在过去10余年中,中科院地理资源所的历史气候变化研究在已有基础上,面向国际本领域研究的前缘科学问题,开展了大量研究工作,在代用资料的收集、整理与数据库建设,温度与降水变化重建以及气候变化的时空特征分析等方面取得了许多新成果。未来不但需要进一步利用历史文献、树轮等气候变化重建手段,加强高分辨率的气候变化重建工作,加密气候变化代用资料的空间覆盖度,并结合历史气候模拟等手段,深入开展气候变化动力学机制研究;而且还需要进一步利用地理资源所在本领域已积累的研究优势,开展历史时期的气候变化与人类相互作用等方面的研究。

An overview of research on climate change in China during the past 2000 years

In this paper we summarize the major progress made by the scientists at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences on the study of climate change in China during the past 2000 years and provide insight to future research activities. Faced with hot scientific issue in the field from international projects, much research has been performed at the Institute in the past decade, and many new and significant results are produced in the areas of collection and compilation of various proxy data, construction of an extensive database of climate change in China, reconstruction of temperature and precipitation series, and analyses of the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change for the past 2000 years. In the future, in addition to reconstructions of climate change based on high-resolution proxies, such as historical documents and tree-ring data, we need to increase the density and spatial coverage of the proxy data. Using the approach of historical climate modeling, the forcing mechanisms of climate change can be examined. With the advantage of the accumulated research results at the Institute, we can also investigate the interactions between climate change and human society during historical periods.