近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势

为预估本世纪末广东海平面的可能上升量,从探讨近百年来广东海平面上升率的阶段性变化入手,通过对广东沿海验潮站潮位观测资料的统计分析,得出广东沿海海平面近86年(1925-2010年)、近40年(1970-2010年)和近20年(1993-2010年)的上升率分别为2.1 mm/a、2.5 mm/a和3.2 mm/a,存在加速上升的趋势,并与全球大体呈准同步变化.20世纪90年代以来,广东沿海海平面上升和热带西太平洋的海平面出现突变上升有密切关系.

Sea Level Changes along Guangdong Coast over the Last Century

In an attempt to estimate the probable variation of sea level along coastal Guangdong for the 21st century,the authors analyze a number of periods of distinct sea level change during the last 100 years.The analysis is performed with the aid of instrumental tide data,accumulated from tide gauges along the coast of Guangdong.The results present a steady,consistent acceleration of sea level rise over the previous century,that can be demonstrated through the data,which reveal a sea level rising rate of 2.1 mm/a between 1925 and 2010,2.5 mm/a between 1970 and 2010,and 3.2 mm/a between 1992 and 2010.Incidentally,the overall trend of the rate increase is consistent with that of the average sea level variation on a global scale.However,during the 1990s sea level rise along coastal Guangdong was also related to,and consistent with,the dramatic sea level rise in the Western Tropical Pacific.