Subsidence prediction in shallow room and pillar mines

Summary A mathematical model has been developed utilizing the relative flexural strength of the strata overlying a coal seam to predict the vulnerability of shallow room and pillar mined areas to subsidence. The model assumes the failure of the immediate roof as the precursor of a subsidence event in shallow room and pillar mines. After the roof fails, either a sink hole subsidence event develops if the unconsolidated material is thin and dry; or a subsidence trough forms if the unconsolidated material is thick and wet. The model relates the Missavage number (Mn), which is dependent only on the stratigraphy and rock strength, to the extraction number, which is dependent only on the extraction ratio and maximum span of the opening. A high correlation coefficient (r=0.78) betweenMn and the extraction number for 27 subsidence events in a southern Illinois mine showed potential for using this model to delineate areas more vulnerable to subsidence. The developed and validated model was then subjected to a blind test on a 12.9 square kilometer area of an Illinois Coal Basin mine. The model successfully predicted 10 out of 12 subsidence events in the blind half of the study area and two of three additional subsidence events in the known half of the study area.