Climate,development and malaria: an application of <Emphasis Type="Italic">FUND</Emphasis>

Climate change may well increase malaria morbidity and mortality. This would slow economic growth through increased spending on health care, reduced production, and less effective education. Slower economic growth would increase the incidence of malaria morbidity and mortality. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the strength of this negative feedback. Although climate-change-induced health problems may well substantially affect the projected growth path of developing regions, it is unlikely that climate change would reverse economic growth due to the impacts considered here. Even in sub-Saharan Africa, an area thought to be very sensitive to climate change and associated health effect, the impact, while detectable, is small and unlikely to reverse economic growth.