数值天气预报中的不一致性问题综述

近年来随着数值天气预报的不断发展,数值天气预报中出现了一个新的值得注意的问题:预报不一致性,即连续多次预报中,前后两次预报所做出的预报结果之间差异较大的现象。本文较系统地概述了这一问题,总结了预报不一致性的概念、定量分析方法、产生的可能原因及其与预报误差的关系等方面的研究成果。目前预报不一致性的定量分析方法还较少,其适用性和客观性等还需进一步研究。在预报不一致性产生的原因方面,现有的研究仅限于理论上的简要分析,初始误差和模式误差在预报不一致性形成过程中的具体作用等尚不清楚。最后阐述了在预报不一致性研究中存在的一些问题及可能的研究方向。

Review on the inconsistency of numerical weather prediction

During the development of numerical weather prediction, a new notable problem:forecast inconsistency, has been investigated in recent years. Forecast inconsistency means the large difference between two consecutive forecasts in the successive forecasts. The main issues of forecast inconsistency are systematically presented in this paper, including its concept, methods of quantification analysis, the possible causes and the relationship with forecast error. Results show that there are few methods of quantification analysis, and their applicability and objectivity still require further study. In terms of the reasons of forecast inconsistency, present research is limited to a brief analysis of the theory, and the specific roles of the initial error and the model error in the formation of forecast inconsistency are still unclear. Some potential problems and possible research direction of forecast inconsistency are pointed out in the end.