对张北6.2级地震预测的回顾和再研究

对张北6.2级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。 对各种预报方法进行比较系统和客观的预报效能检验和评估,确定和筛选预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,这不仅是地震预测预报逐步向科学、客观、严谨和实用化方向迈进的重要途径,而且是探索以震源物理为基础和孕震阶段为依据的多学科异常有机结合的综合概率预测的必要前题。

REVIEW, RETHINK AND RESTUDY REGARDING ZHANGBEI-SHANGYI EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Based on the review and summarization of precursory pattern in seismometry and prediction for Zhangbei Shangyi earthquake with M=6.2, the efficiency of prediction is examined and evaluated systematically for some prediction indexes of seismometry which are well reflected. The prediction indexes of the best three factors in seismometry prediction method are further determined and selected, which provides a quantitative reference basis in determining the three factors and prediction efficiency for various predicting indexes. The examination and evaluation of prediction efficiency are made for various prediction methods systematically and objectively, the determination and selection of prediction methods for the prediction indexes of the best three factors are not only an important way that earthquake prediction and forecast have gradually advanced to scientific, objective, serious and practical direction, but also a necessary premise for comprehensive probability prediction combined organically by anomalies in multiple subjects with investigating focal physics as the basis and with seismogenic period as the evidence.