中国城市居民生活用电碳排放差异及时空演变

以地级市为研究单元，以人均生活用电碳排放为测度指标，借助经典统计学中的各类不平衡指数，对2002―2011年间中国城市居民生活用电碳排放的差异程度进行动态时序分析。同时，运用ESDA方法，从静态的碳排放量和动态的碳排放增长率2个角度，定量描述了2002年以来中国城市生活用电碳排放的时空演化特征。结果表明：中国城市居民人均生活用电碳排放差异逐渐缩小；就人均碳排放量来说，总体上表现为空间正相关，且集聚程度逐渐增强，冷热点格局基本稳定，高值区域从广东省逐渐向北延伸至其他东南沿海地区；就碳排放增长率来说，碳排放增长在总体上无显著的空间相关性，地理集中现象不明显，冷热点区域转换迅速，高值区域数目显著增加且表现出向北转移的趋势。

Regional Disparities and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions of Domestic Electricity Consumption in Urban China

Global warming is mainly caused by carbon emissions produced by human activities. In China, electric power sector is an important sector to consume fossil energy and emit carbon, so enough attention should be paid to implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction policies. With the development of economy and society, domestic electricity consumption has been increasing gradually, and its carbon emissions problem has caused people’s concern. Based on the data of household electrical carbon emissions per capita, the paper firstly employs some unbalanced indexes of classical statistical methods to describe the trend of regional disparities of domestic carbon emissions in urban China at prefecture level. Secondly, the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emissions of domestic electricity consumption since 2002 is analyzed quantitatively by using ESDA. The result reveals that there had been an overall downward trend of spatial inequality during 2002-2011. The per capita carbon emission exhibited a positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased gradually over time. The cold and hot spots distribution pattern kept stable in general, while the high-value agglomeration area extended northward from Guangdong Province to other southeast coastal areas. In terms of the growth rate of carbon emissions, there was no significant spatial autocorrelation and the cold and hot spots changed frequently without obvious appearance of geographical concentration. The number of high value areas increased greatly and moved northward as well.