山地流域水文模拟研究进展与展望

山地水文循环是全球水循环的重要组成部分,山地独特的地形特征、日趋变化的社会经济与新技术(遥感观测和信息科学)发展使得山地水文循环研究成为当前乃至未来水文学关注的热点。山地较大的垂直梯度浓缩了水平自然带的自然地理和生态学特征,具有多样的环境敏感性,因此山地水文过程对土地利用变化和气候变化的响应比平坦地区更为剧烈。明晰山地水文过程对区域防洪减灾、制定全球变化背景下区域水资源可持续利用策略、促进经济社会发展具有重要意义。水文模型是研究水循环的重要工具,但山地产汇流机制的复杂性以及实测水文资料匮乏等一系列问题极大限制了山地水文模拟与预测工作。本文首先系统地从数据获取、参数计算、模型结构、建模理论四个方面介绍了国内外山地水文模拟的研究进展,并总结了经验模型、概念模型及基于物理机制的分布式水文模型在我国山地水文模拟中的应用进展,之后从山地水文要素的空间变异性与垂直变异性、驱动力、数据不确定性、强烈的人为扰动等方面对当前山地水文模拟中面临的挑战与难点进行了论述。通过对国内外相关研究前沿的归纳,从多过程耦合机理研究、山地自然—社会二元水循环理论、大数据背景下多源数据获取与同化研究等方面对我国未来山地水文模拟的工作方向进行了展望。

Hydrological Simulation in Mountainous Region:Present State and Perspectives

Water cycle in mountainous region is an essential component of the global water cycles.However unique topography,ever-changing socio-economy and variable environmental gradients make a unique situation and diverse hydrological conditions in these regions.The emergence of modern technologies,such as Remote Sensing and Information Technology have made large scale hydrological studies possible in the mountainous ecosystem and opened up a new horizon for hydrological research in mountains for both current and future researchers all across the globe.Large vertical gradient in mountainous region condenses the natural geographical and ecological characteristics at the horizontal scale and these regions have a variety of environmental sensitivities.Therefore,the responses of hydrological processes due to land use change and climate variability in the mountainous areas are more dramatic than those in the plains.On the other hand,flood control,disaster management,and sustainability assessment of regional water resources are also required to understand the hydrological processes in the mountainous areas due to global climate change.Hydrological models have been proved as the important tools for water cycle researches for decades.With the launch of the PUB program and the application of new observation methods in the past 20 years,hydrological simulations have made a great progress.However,a series of problems such as the complexity of runoff generation and concentration,lack of measured hydrological data still prevent successful hydrological modelling in the mountainous regions.This review systematically introduced the research progress of hydrological modelling in the mountainous regions from four basic aspects:(i)data acquisition,(ii)parameter estimation,(iii)model structure,and(iv)modelling theory.Then,the domestic applications of empirical,conceptual,and distributed hydrological models were reviewed.Moreover,the challenges and difficulties in the current hydrological simulation were discussed for the heterogeneity of hydrological elements,driving force,data uncertainty and intensive human disturbances in the mountainous regions.It is concluded that multi-process coupling,multi-source data acquisition,and assimilation in the context of big data,nature-society dualistic water cycle modeling could foster the future development of hydrological modelling in mountainous regions.