Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections |
| |
Authors: | Marco Turco Antonella Sanna Sixto Herrera Maria-Carmen Llasat José Manuel Gutiérrez |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change), Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division, via Maiorise s.n.c., 81043, Capua, CE, Italy 2. CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change), Viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127, Bologna, Italy 3. Grupo de Meteorología, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria (UC), Av. de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain 4. University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 647, Barcelona, 08028, Spain 5. Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-UC, Av. de los Castros s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain
|
| |
Abstract: | In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|