Evaluation of precipitation prediction skill of IMD operational NWP system over Indian monsoon region |
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Authors: | S K Roy Bhowmik D Joardar H R Hatwar |
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Institution: | (1) India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India |
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Abstract: | Summary The study provides a concise and synthesized documentation of the current level of skill of the operational NWP model of India
Meteorological Department based on daily 24 hours forecast run of the model during two normal monsoon years 2001 and 2003
making detailed inter-comparison with daily rainfall analysis from the use of high dense land rain gauge observations. The
study shows that the model, in general, is able to capture three regions of climatologically heavy rainfall domains along
Western Ghats, Northeast India and over east central India, over the domain of monsoon trough. However, the accuracy in prediction
of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The inter-comparison reveals that performance of the model
rainfall forecast deteriorated in 2003 when rainfall over most parts of the region was significantly under-predicted. These
features are also reflected in the error statistics. The study suggests that there is a need to maximize the data ingest in
the model with a better data assimilation scheme to improve the rainfall forecast skill. |
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