滑坡预测预报的基础及我国主要滑坡岩组特征的确定

滑坡已看成为一种地质灾害,它具有降低环境质量和破坏地表生态平衡的势头。由于人类工程活动而使滑坡灾害发生频繁,一些国家的许多学者已在从事滑坡规律及其空、时预测预报的研究,目的在于理想地去阻止或减缓其灾害作用,本文试图就上面问题作一努力。文中强调:工程地质类比法是滑坡预测预报的基础。其原理在于类似的工程地质环境会引起类同的滑坡。为了表示滑坡预测分区的数字制图,藉助于数据统计、概率及信息理论,类比法可从定性过渡到定量分析。据此基础而编制了滑坡过程工程地质预测简表。设1975年研究的滑坡岩性资料代表从全国范围内抽取的样本,则应用地质变量选取方法可得到我国主要滑坡岩组类型,其结果列于表4。

FOUNDATION OF PROGNOSIS FOR LANDSLIDES AND DETERMINATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF MAIN SLIDING ROCK GROUPS IN CHINA

Landslide has been regarded as one of the geologic hazards which trends towards to descend environmental quality and destroys ecologic balance on the Earth surf ace. Owing to human engineering activities,landslide hazards occur and increase frequently. Many scholars of several countries have engaged in the study of landsliding regularity and its spartial prognosis and time prediction in order to prevent or reduce these harzards ideally.The paper attempted to try its best on the assigned items above. It is emphasized that engineering geological analogic comparison method is the foundation of prognosis for landsides. Its principle is that analogic engineering geological environment might give rise to analogic landslide.For numerical charting showing zonation of prognosis for landslides the analogic comparison method may be transformed from qualitative analysis to quantitative one with the help of related methods of data statistics, probability and information theory. Based on the foundation, a simple table is given for engineering geological prognosis of landslide process. Assuming that lithologic data of landslides studied in 1975 represent the samples picked up from the whole country area, the main landsliding rock groups in China may be gained by means of selection of geological variables. The results are arranged in table 4.