基于浪潮组合的台风暴潮强度等级划分

为准确定位风暴的强弱及灾害的大小，文中提出了泊松-二维对数正态分布，并将其用于海岸地区台风暴潮致灾强度的长期预测。选取青岛地区建国以来所出现的主要台风暴潮作为观测资料，以水位和显著波高系列组成样本，进行了台风暴潮重现期的统计推算。提出了判别台风暴潮致灾强度的新标准。实例显示，新标准概念清楚，简单易行，适用于青岛地区台风暴潮的强度确定。基于新模式的风暴潮强度随机分析方法对我国其它海岸地区的防潮减灾具有参考意义。

Typhoon Surge Intensity Grade Classification Based on Combination of Wave Height and Tide Level

Serious storm surge disasters are frequently caused by higher tidal levels and concomitant huge wave heights toward the shoreline. In order to overcome the defects of the traditionally stipulated warning level, which cannot thoroughly describe the magnitude of a storm surge, a Poisson Bi-variable Lognormal Distribution (PBLD) is presented to predict typhoon surge intensities. The PBLD model can take account of the joint distribution of bi-variable extreme environmental conditions as well as the typhoon frequency. On the basis of observed tide levels and simultaneously occurred wave height series sampled from typhoon processes in the Qingdao coastal area since 1949, the return periods of typhoon surges are estimated. A new criterion is put forward to classify the intensity grade of a disaster-inducing typhoon surge. Practical cases indicate that the new criterion is clear in probability concept, easy to operate, and fits to the calculation of typhoon surge intensities. The procedure with the proposed statistical model will be of value for disaster mitigation in other coastal areas influenced by typhoons.