重庆南川市甑子岩W12 #危岩崩塌预警分析

岩崩是基岩山区一种常遇的地质灾害，具有突发性强，可预见性差，危害性大的特点。文章通过对重庆南川金佛山甑子岩W12^#危岩体现场勘查，分析了该危岩体的成因机制和破坏模式。采用常规监测仪器和人工变形量测手段进行了预警预报研究，成功地预报了金佛山甑子岩W12^#危岩的崩塌，避免了重大的经济损失和人员伤亡。研究成果可为研究岩崩系统发展演化机制、探索突发性地质灾害的空间预警和防灾减灾决策提供可靠依据。

Early-warning analysis on the rockfall for Zenziyan W12 # dangerous rock mass in Nanchuan City of Chongqing

Rockfall is a kind of common geologic hazard in mountainous bedrock area. It is of characteristic of high frequency in occurrence, low veracity in forecast and severe intensities in disasters. In this paper, with the local survey for W12# dangerous rock mass at Zenziyan of Jinfo mountain in Nanchuan City, Chongqing, the authors analyze its forming mechanism and failure mode. With research on the criterions of early-warning and prediction by the conventional monitoring apparatus and artificial displacement measurement, the rockfall time and scale of W 12# dangerous rock mass of Jinfo mountain have been successfully predicted, and avoided great loss of life and property. The research can provide with a reliable basis for the evolvement mechanism of rockfall system, the spatial early-warning methods of the paroxysmal geologic hazard and the strategies of the disaster defence and reduction.