准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计

反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河

Quasi-time-predictable Recurrence Behavior and Assesments of Earthquake Occurrence Probabilities on Segments of Fault Zone

Introducing indetermination into"time-predictable model",quiet time following an earthquake can be expressed as a random variable which is in positive correlation to the earthquake displacement. Such a behavoir,with indetermination, of earthquakes repeated at same localities is termed "quasi-time-predictable behavior". For historic earthquake data,this behavior can be described by the regression equation of logarithm of quiet time after an earthquake versus intensity of this earthquake. In this paper,a method to estimate the range of average recurrence interval conditional on intensity of the last event on individual segments along a large fault zone as well as a real-time probabilistic model that is able to be used in indeterminative evaluating of future seismic potential for these segments have been proposed. As an example,both the method and the model have been preliminarily applied to the Xianshuihe fault zone. This paper is a preliminary effort,based on the quasi-time-predictable model and on the combination of data of historic earthquakes,segmentation of earthquake ruptures and estimation of recurrence time intervals with model of probability, to make real-time probabilistic analysis in evaluating middle-long-term seismic potential on individual fault segments.