基于MICAPS平台的四维天气诊断分析系统

以T213模式、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，研究了面雨量的计算方法和预报方法；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造了在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效的遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度，并建立了“山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务系统”。2003年将该预报系统投入业务运行，取得了良好的预报服务效果。

Study on the Operational System of Areal Rainfall Forecast in main Drainage Area of Shanxi

Computing and forecasting methods o f areal rainfall were studyed based o n the grid data output from model T213,model HLAFS,mesosc ale model MM5as well as grid rainfall of Japan.Different operational flows of areal rainfall forecast,based on different forecast equations,were developed on the background of dif-ferent circumfluence,according to the capability,advantage and disad vantage of rainfall forecast output from each kind of numerical models and the forecast of synoptic situation superior to elements.The system,runned in2003,get over the disadvantage of re sponsing slowly in adjusting of circ umfluence synoptic situation and im prove the forecast veracity of spot and are al rainfall,procure favorable pred iction performance of services.