中国长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨形成机理以及监测与预测理论和方法研究

国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“我国重大天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究”经过项目全体科学家的 5a研究 ,取得了一系列重要的研究成果 :(1)提出了基于多种实时观测资料的梅雨锋暴雨的多尺度物理模型 ;(2 )建立了梅雨锋暴雨的天气学模型 ;(3)梅雨锋是由多个不同尺度系统构成的梅雨锋系 ,它具有介于温带锋系结构与热带辐合带结构之间的副热带锋系结构 ,在长江中下游有时可表现为双锋结构。锋前的湿物理过程与锋上强对流系统发展形成的正反馈过程以及梅雨锋系的不同尺度系统的相互作用是梅雨锋维持与发展的重要机制 ;(4 )提出了多种中尺度暴雨的定量卫星遥感反演理论和方法 ,并形成一系列新的反演产品 ;(5 )成功地研究了双多普勒雷达同步探测和反演中尺度暴雨三维结构的理论和方法 ;(6 )发展了配有三维变分同化系统的中尺度暴雨数值预报模式系统 ,在 2 0 0 3年淮河抗洪救灾中发挥了积极作用。上述研究成果表明该项目已经圆满地完成了预定的目标与任务。

STUDY FOR FORMATION MECHANISM OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE MEIYU FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE AND DOWNSTREAM OF YANGTZE RIVER AND THEORIES AND METHODS OF THEIR DETECTION AND PREDICTION

The project on study for formation mechanism and theories and methods of detection and prediction of severe weather disasters in China from National Key Basic Research Development Program has been studied by all the scientists of this project for five years. It has been made important progresses including six aspects related to heavy rainfall: (1) Muti-scales physical models of heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front based on the real-time observed data have been proposed; (2) It has established a synoptic model for heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front; (3) Meiyu front is Meiyu frontal system which consists of multi-synoptic systems with different space-time scales. It has structure characteristics of sub-tropical frontal system which is between structure characteristics of extra-tropical frontal system and ITCZ. However, sometime it has dual-peaks structure in the middle-downstream of Yangtze River. And its maintenance and development mechanism has also been discussed. (4) Several kinds of quantitative remote sensing retrieval theories and methods have been proposed for meso-scale heavy rainfall; (5) Dual-Dopplor detecting methods and retrieval theories for meso scale heavy rainfall have successfully been studied. (6) The meso scale heavy rainfall numerical prediction model system with 3Dvar has been developed. The above progresses showed that the project on heavy rainfall study has been reached to the goals and finished the tasks in the last five years. It is substantial scientific base for advancing deeply studying of heavy rainfall in China.