梯度城镇化的村庄解析：以福建上杭为例

引导农村人口有序地向城镇转移,实现大中小城市和小城镇协调发展,是当前中国经济社会面临的重大问题。归纳总结了农村人口迁徙目的地的4个层次,提出了梯度城镇化的概念,并以福建省上杭县村庄问卷为基础,进行梯度城镇化的村庄解析,辨识不同梯度人口迁徙的影响因素。研究发现：① 村庄人口规模对村庄人口流出具有阻止作用;县城和乡镇吸引农村人口迁入存在明显距离衰减。② 老年人比重高降低了年轻人迁徙到县城的成本,有利于农村人口的县城集聚。较高的少儿抚养比可能会抑制农村人口进入县城居住和拥有住房。③ 教育驱动是县城城镇化的重要动力。高人力资本有流向地级市的趋势。

Village Analysis of Gradient Urbanization: A Case Study of Shanghang,Fujian

In 2011, the proportion of China′s urban population exceeded 50%. In the past 30 years, urbanization has contributed enormously to economic growth and modernization in China. For China,the primary strategic task of economic and social development is to continue to increase the level of urbanization,and manage the orderly transfer of the rural population to the cities. The government announced that China′s future development roadmap is a ‘new type of urbanization’, which requires the coordinated development of cities and towns. This article generalizes four gradients of migration destination of rural population, and proposes the concept of ‘gradient urbanization’. Based on the 311 village questionnaires of Shanghang County in Fujian province, we identify the factors for different gradient migration. The result shows: 1) The size of village and population outflow are negatively correlated. A 1% increase in the population size of the village would cause a 0.4% decrease in the outflow proportion of the population. There is a significant distance attenuation in the migration from villages to the county. 2) Villages with high elderly dependency ratios are more likely to lose their villagers, as the aged lower the migration cost to the county for the young people. In contrast, the villages with high child-age dependency ratios are less likely to lose their villagers. 3) Education is an important driving force for urbanization. As educational resources gradually become concentrated in the county, an increasing number of young parents choose to move to the county, where their children can receive a better primary education. Furthermore, significant evidence has been found to show that the villagers with high human capital are more inclined to migrate to the prefecture-level city.