县域城镇化时空演变及其影响因素——以浙江省为例

利用浙江省2001-2013年县域城镇化率数据,运用探索性空间数据分析方法,定量揭示了浙江省县域城镇化时空差异和演变,即浙江省县域城镇化时空格局具有显著全局和局域空间自相关性,其中,城镇化热点区域主要以环杭州城市带为主。基于空间面板计量分析技术,对浙江省县域城镇化影响因素进行了实证研究,回归结果显示：浙江省县域城镇化存在显著空间溢出效应,即临县城镇化建设将会正向促进本县城镇化进程;经济增长、固定资产投资、第二产业比重和外贸依存度均对县域城镇化发展存在显著正向影响,但城乡差距则对县域城镇化发展具有显著负向影响。根据实证分析结果,提出了浙江省县域城镇化未来发展的相关政策建议。

Spatial-temporal evolution of county urbanization and its influencing factors in Zhejiang province

Urbanization is the only way in which a county may realize its modernization strategy, in terms of coordinating regional economic development, and expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrading. As an organization mechanism of market economy, the Zhejiang Model is typical of the development of the county economy of China. In the absence of conditions for economic growth suggested by the classical economic theory, the economic development of this province has made remarkable achievements since China's reform and opening-up. Moreover, county urbanization holds an fundamental and irreplaceable position of China's national urbanization system, thus there is a growing interest in research studies regarding the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of county urbanization. By applying the data of the county urbanization rate of Zhejiang province from 2000 to 2012, this paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis to reveal spatial-temporal disparities and dynamic evolution. More specifically, county urbanization shows significant global and local autocorrelation spatially, with hot areas of county urbanization mainly found around the Hangzhou city belts. Then, with the aid of spatial panel econometric technology, this paper conducts an empirical study on the influencing factors of county urbanization. The regression results show that county urbanization has significant spatial spillover effects, namely county urbanization will also be promoted in areas adjacent to the area where county urbanization is undertaken. Additionally, economic growth, investment in fixed assets, and the proportion of the secondary industry and foreign trade dependence have positive effects on county urbanization, but the gap between urban and rural areas has a negative effect on county urbanization. Empirical findings indicate that the center of Zhejiang's county urbanization is the Hangzhou-Ningbo region. This type of spatial distribution pattern has hindered the balanced development of county urbanization. Governments at various levels should focus on develop potential hot spots of county urbanization in the Jinhua-Quzhou and Wenzhou-Taizhou regions to form a pattern of tripartite confrontation, thereby guaranteeing the orderly and progressive development of county urbanization in Zhejiang. In addition, local protection and administrative barriers of inter-county urbanization should be broken in order to strengthen interactive construction.