1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局的时空演化

1990s以来京津冀地区经济增长快速,然而经济发展在行政辖区间并不均衡,且逐渐导致环京津贫困带的形成.为识别经济发展失衡格局的演化过程,首先引入DMSP/OLS夜间灯光和可比价GDP,构建"单位开发活动GDP"表征区域经济发展状况;然后运用Local Moran's I将区域经济发展格局划分为五种类型:HH富化扩散,HL富化极化,LH贫化塌陷,LL贫化制约和非显著;最后以HH类型的边界作为京津冀地区经济发展失衡界线,采用缓冲区分析探讨经济发展失衡格局的演化过程和行政区划等人为因素对经济发展的制约效应.结果表明:① 整体上,1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展失衡格局不断加剧,京津富化扩散与河北贫化制约的规模与强度同时增长;局部上,受京津市区经济发展的外溢效应,京津郊区及区位优势显著的部分河北地区经济发展较快.② 与传统认知的"环京津贫困带"不同,在两个空间尺度上识别出经济发展断层,一为京津市区与郊区之间,二为京津与河北之间,且前者的区域经济发展失衡整体上较后者更为严峻.③ 1990s以来京津冀地区经济发展的失衡格局,整体上受制于城乡二元体制带来的城乡隔离效应,局部上受京津冀三地的行政制约.要实现京津冀地区经济发展的协同均衡,关键在于弱化城乡隔离,并辅以消除行政制约.

Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of unbalanced economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region since the 1990s

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been experiencing rapid economic development since 1990. However, development has been imbalanced and has been widening the gaps in economies of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. To identify the imbalanced pattern of economic development and analyze its dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 1992-2012, we first proposed a "GDP per human activity intensity" consisting of DMSP/OLS nighttime light data and the constant price of GDP to map economic development. Second, local Moran's I was applied to classify the economic development pattern into 5 types: HH (high values surrounded by high values), HL (high values surrounded by low values), LH (low values surrounded by high values), LL (low values surrounded by low values), and not significant. Third, the boundary of the HH type was used as the line between rich areas and poor areas, and the dynamics of economic development and its response to administration are analyzed by buffer analysis. The results suggest that the spatial pattern of economic development has been imbalanced during 1992-2012, and the HH type in Beijing-Tianjin and the LL type in Hebei have been increasing in area and intensity. The HL type and the LH type in Hebei and suburban Beijing and Tianjin are growing because of the spillover effect of the development in the urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin. Moreover, having a different view from the previous understanding of "one poverty region around Beijing and Tianjin", we identified wealth gaps on two spatial scales: One is inside Beijing and Tianjin, which is between urban and rural areas, and the other is between Beijing-Tianjin and Hebei. Furthermore, the wealth gap in the former scale is larger than the latter. The imbalanced spatial pattern of economic development is a result of the administrative restrictions among Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei and the urban-rural dual system. Such a result can be attributed to the difference of administrative management and policy exists not only between cities but also between the urban and rural areas of a particular city. In addition, our analysis shows that the latter scale is the main reason for the imbalanced spatial pattern. Therefore, reducing urban-rural differences and administrative constraint is important in realizing balanced economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.