基于面板数据的旅游经济效应空间分异及优化研究——以山东省为例

依据2000~2012年山东省17个地市的GDP和旅游总收入数据,构建面板数据模型,用定量的方法测度山东省17个地市的旅游业发展和经济增长之间是否存在长期协整关系,并对存在协整关系的地市进一步进行Granger因果检验和面板数据模型回归分析。结果表明: ① 山东省东中西三大地域板块旅游经济效应空间分异现象明显,东部地区的旅游总收入已经成为了经济增长的Granger因,旅游业发展已经对经济增长起到了良好的推动作用,青岛和烟台的旅游总收入和经济增长已经存在双向Granger因果关系;② 中部地区的经济增长是旅游总收入增长的Granger因,经济增长对旅游业发展起到了保障和助推的双重作用,特别是东营和枣庄已经成为山东省旅游业发展的新亮点;③ 西部地区的经济增长和旅游总收入之间尚未形成协整关系。根据研究结果,给出山东省旅游业均衡、健康发展的建议和对策。

A Panel Data Study on the Spatial Dissimilarity of Tourism Economic Effect and Improvement Measures:Taking Shandong Province as a Case

In this article, the panel data of GDP and tourism income of 17 cities in Shandong Province in 2000-2012 are employed to establish the mathematics model to measure the long-run cointegration relationship between tourism development and economic growth in the 17 cities of Shandong Province. Furthermore, the Granger cause test and panel data regression analyses have been done in the cities in which the long-run cointegration relationship exists. The results from the analyses show that there are significant regional differences concerning the tourism economic effect in Shandong Province. 1) In the eastern regional cities, tourism income is the Granger cause of the economic growth, and the tourism development has played an important role in promoting the economic growth, with the cities of Qingdao and Yantai having developed a mutual Granger cause relationship between the tourism income and economic growth. 2) In the central regional cities, economic growth is the Granger cause of tourism income growth, and the economic growth has promoted and protected the tourism development, featuring the cities of Dongying and Zaozhuang as new star cities in tourism development. 3) In the western regional cities, the long-run cointegration relationship between the tourism income and economic growth hasn’t been established. To conclude it, the study puts forward some suggestions in policy formulation to promote the equilibrium and sustainable development of regional tourism economy of Shandong Province.