城市修建主题公园适宜性评价指标体系研究

以国内外城市修建主题公园适宜性研究的已有成果和产业实践为基础,预选出城市修建主题公园适宜性的55个影响因素,运用德尔菲法、自相关分析法、变差系数法对55个因素进行3轮筛选,构建了包含16个因素的评价指标体系,运用AHP和熵权法对指标确权,并对全国33个主要大中城市建设主题公园的适宜性开展实证研究。结果表明：① 本研究所构建的指标体系仅用28%的指标反映了96%的原始信息,指标体系更简明科学、便于操作;② 二级指标中的人口因素影响作用显著,三级指标中的城市常住人口、GDP、旅游总人数、地价水平以及周边城市常住人口是影响主题公园在城市选址的关键因素。③ 四大直辖市叠加四大一线城市修建主题公园适宜性最高,海口、银川、西宁等16个城市修建主题公园适宜性指数最低,城市修建主题公园适宜性指数与已有研究成果中的国内城市群发育指数基本一致;④ 实证研究结论与中国主题公园的实际分布情况相吻合,表明指标体系的科学性及可行性,可用以指导主题公园的在全国城市的选址。

The Indicator System for the Suitability Evaluation of Theme Park Construction in Urban Areas in China

The layout of theme park is the most significant factor which determines the success of theme park project. In this study, we draw on the theoretical and practical experience in the suitability evaluation of building theme parks in urban areas from the previous projects existed in the national and international countries. Based on the previous studies, 55 influencing factors are preliminarily selected on whether it is suitable to build theme parks in urban areas. The 55 influencing factors have been screened for three analytical rounds, by using Delphi method, autocorrelation analysis and coefficient of variation, respectively, to build an evaluation indicator system, in which containing 16 potential indexes. And then, based on the selected theme parks existed in urban cities over the entire country, the AHP and entropy methods are used to evaluate all the potential indexes and calculate the weight of each index. Moreover, empirical research methodology is made to evaluate the suitability of developing theme parks in 33 major large and medium cities in China. From the comprehensive analyses by multiple statistical methods, the results suggested that: 1) The final index system reflects 96% of original information by no more than 30% of initial indexes. Our index system exhibited its efficient and suitability to build theme parks .2) Among the second-round selected indexes, the urban area population factor showed a significant influence on the suitability to build theme park; among the third-round selected indexes, permanent resident population, the GDP, the total number of tourists and land price of an urban area, permanent resident population of surrounding city are the key influence factors affecting the feasibility of developing a theme park in those area. 3) The cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin are ranked among the highest in the suitability index ranking of building a theme park, while Hohhot, Zhuhai, Haikou and other urban areas are ranked among the lowest. On the whole, most of the urban areas in eastern and central China are relatively suitable for building theme parks. 4) The results obtained coincide with the actual development of theme parks in China, which means that the model is scientific and feasible and can be used to guide the site selection for theme parks around the country in future. In conclusion, our study suggested that the city population size may be the major influence factor for building theme park in urban area, and then followed by permanent resident, GDP, population size of tourism, and the price of land use.